Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 270037
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
637 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A FAST MOVING PATTERN WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST MO MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ON BY LATE THURSDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOUTH FLOW BECOMING
ESTABLISHED THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

LAST BAND OF MODERATE SNOWFALL FROM PERRY THROUGH THE DES MOINES
METRO AREA SHIFTING SOUTHEAST. THE BAND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA
BY 03Z WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND A HALF INCH. THE
BAND IS WEAKENING AS IT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST SO MODERATE SNOWFALL
IS BECOMING MORE HIT OR MISS. POPS WERE INCREASED IN THE SNOW
AREAS TO REFLECT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TWO MAIN BANDS OF SNOW THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE WAA
SNOWFALL PUSHING THROUGH OVERNIGHT DROPPING AROUND 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND THE WAA BAND THEN STALLING AND
PIVOTING AROUND ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN IOWA DURING THE DAY.
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ALLOWING SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA...HAS LED TO SOME HIGHER THAN EXPECTED SNOW
TOTALS AROUND 7 INCHES. OVERALL AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH THE BACK EDGE
ALREADY SITUATED ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ESTHERVILLE TO
DENISON. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN RANGING AROUND ONE HALF MILE TO ONE
MILE IN THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OR
IMPROVE AS THE SNOW BEGINS TO DIMINISH. NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALREADY
INCREASED ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...AND WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA AS THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO SPILL INTO THE
STATE IN EARNEST. HOWEVER AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA QUICKLY WILL ALLOW FOR THE SFC PRES GRADIENT TO RELAX QUICKLY
THUS DIMINISHING THE GUSTY WIND THREAT SOME. OVERALL IN AREAS THAT
HAVE ALREADY HAD WINDS PICK UP DO NOT SEE MUCH OF AN ISSUE WITH
BLOWING SNOW ON THE WEB CAMS. THEREFORE DO NOT FORESEE THERE TO BE
MUCH AS OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

A WEAK IMPULSE HAS ALSO BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF NE SD
THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH THROUGH SRN MN AND NRN IA LATE THIS
EVENING. FOR THE MOST PART ANY FORCING LOOKS TO DIMINISH SO DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL FROM THIS WEAK IMPULSE LATER TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY BECAUSE IT HAS ALREADY SHOWN SIGNS OF DIMINISHING. AS
COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE CWA...TEMPS SHOULD FALL BUT WILL BE
TEMPERED SOME BY THE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER SHOULD STILL SEE SOME
CLEARING LATE TONIGHT SO LOWS AROUND ZERO NORTH AND AROUND 10 TO 15
ABOVE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AFTER A COLD NIGHT TONIGHT...TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE TOMORROW
WITH FRESH SNOW IN MANY LOCATIONS AND WINDS LIGHT...LIMITING
MIXING. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TOMORROW NIGHT...STRONG WAA WILL
BEGIN. EXPECT TO SEE TEMPS STEADY OR RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
WENT WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TRACE. WARMING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

THE WARMEST AIR WILL PASS OVER THE STATE FRIDAY. GFS AND EC BOTH
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE +16 PASSING OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
IA DURING THE DAY SAT. BUMPED UP TEMPS FOR THAT PERIOD ON THE
ASSUMPTION THAT THE SNOW WILL HAVE MELTED BY THEN. THE OTHER
POSSIBLE ISSUE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS AND FOG FOR FORM AND
NOT BREAK. I WOULD HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS ANOTHER 5 TO 8 DEGREES OF
NOT FOR THESE TWO CONSIDERATIONS.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS QUITE. A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LAST SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...BUT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS WITH A
GENERALLY DRY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...27/00Z
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

BAND OF MODERATE SNOW TO IMPACT MAINLY KDSM AND KOTM THROUGH 02Z
THEN SYSTEM MOVES OUT. IFR CIGS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SE
THROUGH 10-11Z WITH CLEARING SOONER FM KMCW TO KFOD.  SFC WIND WILL
INCREASE THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR COMES IN.  WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
ON THE ORDER OF 10-20KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH 09Z. VFR COND
SHOULD BE IN PLACE AFT 16Z.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SYNOPSIS...MS NOV 14
SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...FAB


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