Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FXUS63 KDMX 260919
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
319 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BRING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FZDZ
TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
TIMING OF ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO BE FROM 10Z TO 14Z WITH SOME
LINGERING POPS THROUGH 15Z NEAR THE ALO AREA. LEANED TOWARD A
BLEND OF THE NAM12/RAP FOR POPS TODAY AND TOWARDS THE WARMER
RAP/ECMWF FOR TEMPS.

THE RAP AND NAM MCW/FOD SOUNDINGS HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING
COMPLETELY SATURATED AS THEY DEPICT A DEEP DRY LAYER BETWEEN 850-
650MB. CERTAINLY SATURATED BELOW 850MB AND ABOVE 650MB...SO SEEDER
FEEDER POTENTIAL EXISTS BUT FORCING WITHIN THE DENDRITIC LAYER IS
VERY WEAK AND ANY SNOW WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT THROUGH
THIS DRY LAYER. IT MAY SNOW FOR A SHORT STINT BY AROUND 12Z-13Z ONCE
THE COLUMN COMPLETELY SATURATES NEAR MCW/ALO AREA BUT THE RAP KEEPS
THE DRY LAYER THROUGH THE ENTIRE MORNING. AS A RESULT...WITH THE
LACK OF ANY ICE INTRODUCTION...HAVE MENTION OF FZDZ THIS MORNING.
ONLY A MINOR TRAVEL CONCERN WITH THE FZDZ AS EXPECTING WARMER
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO ADVECT IN AND WITH THE VERY QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE...THE PRECIP SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND SPORADIC AT BEST.
PLUS...MUCH OF THE PRECIP RETURNS ON RADAR IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ARE
NOT REACHING THE GROUND WITH ONLY A COUPLE SPOTS REPORTING -SN
ATTM.

WAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE RAP/ECMWF FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY.
THE NAM/GFS/SREF SEEMED TOO COLD FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. GOOD
MIXING AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD PUT TEMPS BACK IN THE 50S FOR THE
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN THEMES FOR THE WEEK CONTINUE TO BE CLOUDS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THE APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE SLIDING NEARLY DUE SOUTH TOWARD US WILL BE EAST OF THE
REGION WITH THE H500/H700 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
ALMOST IMMEDIATELY ANOTHER LEE SIDE TROUGH/BOUNDARY WILL FORM
ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS AND ENHANCE SOME CLOUDS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR WITH
RATHER MILD READINGS FOR JANUARY IN THE 20S NORTHEAST TO 30S
SOUTH. BY TOMORROW...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AT THE SFC AND ALOFT
WILL PROMOTE LITTLE MIXING WITH ANY WARMING SOLELY DUE TO
INSOLATION. THUS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY
WITH A SUN CLOUD MIX. PATTERN FOR US REMAINS RATHER BENIGN FOR A
FEW MORE DAYS...COMPARED TO EAST COAST...AND WE SHOULD BEGIN A
NICE WARMING TREND AGAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z WED BOTH GFS/00Z EURO INDICATE STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL STREAM ACROSS MOST OF IOWA. A SFC WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL IOWA KEEPING THE AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR THROUGH THE NOON HOUR. EURO H850 TEMPS WARM CONSIDERABLY TO
+10C TO +12C WITH GFS +6C TO +8C THROUGH 18Z WITH SOME COOLING IN
THE AFTERNOON FOR BOTH MODELS AS CLOUDS THICKEN. SIMILAR TO JAN
16TH...AM EXPECTING STRONG WARMING TO OUR SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL
GENERALLY NOT BE MODIFIED MUCH AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO OUR
AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LAG WARMTH POTENTIAL AS WITH PREVIOUS
SIMILAR EVENT. SUNDAY HIGHS TO OUR SOUTHWEST WERE ALREADY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S WITH 4C TO 6C H850 TEMPS. HAVE RAISED TMAX FOR
WED TO LOWER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTHWEST FOR NOW AND THIS MAY
BE TOO COOL. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC LOW WED NIGHT ONE COLD
FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST BY MORNING WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
DRIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY WITH A SECOND UPPER
LEVEL WAVE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES OVER THE EAST DURING THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN EURO H850 WINDS
QUITE STRONG WITH 45 TO NEAR 50 KTS EARLY IN THE DAY REMAINING
NEAR 45KTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. LIKELY THAT SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL BE NEAR 2O TO 25 MPH WITH GUST POTENTIAL ABOVE 40 KTS.
DESPITE THE EURO SHOWING A STRONGER SOLN THAN THE 00Z GFS...GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NEARLY SIMILAR CONDITIONS. WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTY AND MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN SOLNS...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL PACKAGES. BREEZY DAY
NONE THE LESS. MORE WAVE ENERGY ROTATING SOUTHEAST FROM THE POLAR
ANCHOR LOW OVER HUDSON BAY CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY AND LATE SUNDAY. THERE
IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE H500
VORTEX AS IT DEEPENS AND EXPANDS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE EASTERN
CONUS. THE 00Z EURO DROPS ONE ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
WITH A SECOND FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL H500 WAVE BY 12Z SUNDAY.
PROGGED H850 TEMPS PLUMMET TO -20C TO -26C MONDAY. NEITHER THE GEM
NOR THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS SUPPORT THE SAME COLD SOLUTION OF THE
EURO FOR NOW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OF THE MEX GUIDANCE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF COLDER
TEMPERATURES. IN FACT THE GEM DEVELOPS A DECENT STORM PASSING JUST
TO OUR EAST WHILE THE EURO SHEARS THE SYSTEM EAST THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM. WILL NEED TO EVALUATE OVER THE COMING DAYS AND
TAKE A MORE MODEST APPROACH TO TEMPERATURES FOR NOW AS PAST TWO
NIGHTS THERE HAS BEEN NO CONSISTENCY OVER THE WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. BETTER CLARITY IS EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

&&

.AVIATION...26/06Z
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

LOW STRATUS WILL KEEP LOW MVFR CEILINGS AT SITES THROUGH MOST OF
PERIOD. NORTHER SITES...KMCW AND KALO MAY SEE CEILINGS DROP TO
IFR BRIEFLY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AS SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTH.
HOWEVER...BELIEVE IFR CEILINGS WILL BE BRIEF. WESTERN SITES KFOD
AND KDSM WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR NEAR 18Z...THOUGH EASTERN
SITES WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD...LIFTING NEAR
00Z...THOUGH MAY HAVE BEEN TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH IMPROVEMENT OF
CEILINGS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY 18Z AND WILL BE
STRONG...NEAR 15 KTS THROUGH AFTERNOON AT SITES.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...AWB



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