Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 191737
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1237 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE MORNING WILL BE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW
STATUS DECK THAT HAS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
IOWA OVERNIGHT. AN INCREASING AREA OF CLEARING HAS DEVELOPED OVER
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THE STATE THIS
MORNING. ANTICIPATE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY THIS
MORNING AS SOUNDING LOW LEVELS DRY OUT. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE
AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BY MIDDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE LINGERING
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL AS THE COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HIGH WILL BE ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY. SOME
INCREASE IN LATE AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED WITH INCIPIENT
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM PULLING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS FOCUSED ON RAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AND ADDITIONAL
RAIN/THUNDER POTENTIAL OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. UTILIZED A
BLEND OF THE ARWWRF/NMMWRF-EAST AND ECMWF/SREF TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...THEN ECMWF/GFS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX ENTER
THE STATE LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO PRESS EAST INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE 300-310K ISENTROPIC
SURFACE COMBINED WITH DECENT THETA-E ADVECTION INTO SOUTHERN IOWA
PAST 06Z WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS BY
AROUND 09Z. NAM IS A BIT QUICKER BRINGING THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE STATE THAN THE ECMWF/GFS...BUT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCREASE
POPS ACROSS THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS
BETWEEN 12-15Z WEDNESDAY OVER THE SOUTH WHEN ALL MODELS HAVE THE
BEST FORCING AND DEEPEST MOISTURE. FORCING AND THE DEEP MOISTURE
QUICKLY MOVE EAST PAST 18Z WEDNESDAY AND DECREASED POPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS AND MAY
SEE DRIZZLE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT ALSO COULD BE JUST STRATUS
LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE...IF ANY...INSTABILITY
PRESENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND LEFT OUT MENTION OF THUNDER ATTM.

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION. ENOUGH
CLOUD COVER LINGERING AND WINDS REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH THROUGH THE
NIGHT TO KEEP ANY FROST FROM DEVELOPING.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH FRIDAY AND THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP BY FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...DEW POINT SPREAD
IS LARGE ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION ATTM EVEN WITH THE RECENT
RAINS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BACK INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY THE
WEEKEND OPENS UP THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF THE DEEP TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. CERTAINLY ANOTHER ACTIVE
AND WET WEEKEND AHEAD WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...19/18Z
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AT SITES THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD WITH SITES TO VFR BY 20Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z. RA WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH INTO SITES FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z...WITH BEST CHANCES
AT KFOD/KDSM/KOTM NEAR 12Z. WITH RA WILL SEE MVFR OR LOWER
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AND HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY FOR NOW.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...AWB



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