Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FXUS63 KDMX 201754
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1248 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

AS ANTICIPATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED IN A BROKEN BAND
ACROSS SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING...ALONG THE
NOSE OF THE VEERING LOW LEVEL JET AND WITHIN A REGION OF THETA E
ADVECTION ALOFT. A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME HAIL BUT NO
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL
IOWA...THEN GRADUALLY FADE LATER THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY THE AFTERNOON. CONCURRENTLY...AN EFFECTIVE
WARM FRONT IN THE FORM OF A SURGE OF WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...RESULTING IN SULTRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA BY LATER TODAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL TOP
OUT NEAR 100 DEGREES FROM AROUND THE I-80 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD THUS NO
ADVISORY IS WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

PRECIP TRENDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN RIGHT ON INTO
NEXT WEEK...BUT UNFORTUNATELY DETAILS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY.
GENERAL PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE WITH PERSISTENT WRN CONUS TROUGH/ERN
RIDGE SCENARIO AS PNA INDEX CONTINUES TO LOWER. THIS LEAVES IA IN
PROLONGED SW FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE FEATURES REACHING THE STATE
LATER THIS WEEK AND MOVING LITTLE INTO NEXT WEEK.  CONVECTION FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL MAINLY BE NOCTURNAL WITH LITTLE CONVERGENCE
OR LARGER SCALE FORCING.  WARM/THETA-E ADVECTION SURGE WILL PUSH
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WEAKER THERMODYNAMIC FORCING THU NIGHT. WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE ADVANCING NE...THIS WILL LEAVE IA IN A VERY WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. PEAK HEAT
INDICES WILL BE PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA...JUST OVER 100F...BUT NOT
QUITE THERE SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN THE HWO.

BY THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD ADVANCE
MORE SOUTH AND EAST INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR PEAK
HEATING/SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. SURFACE FEATURES SHOULD LINGER
THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD WITH A PROLONGED MENTION OF
POPS. BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH WRN TROUGH FINALLY ADVANCES FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO INCREASE POPS AND PRECIP COVERAGE BY TUE...BUT BEST
SENSIBLE WEATHER REFLECTION SEEMS JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT VALID
PERIOD TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

THE AIRMASS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD WITH QUITE FAVORABLE ELEVATED K INDICES...WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS AND PWS.  HAVE STARTED WITH HEAVY RAIN MENTION NORTH
TONIGHT...BUT ADDITIONAL WORDING MAY NEED TO BE ADDED WITH LATER
PACKAGES. NE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS QUITE DRY...SO NO
HEADLINES FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE OF HEAVY RAIN LOCATIONS AND
MORE FAVORABLE ANTECEDENT MOISTURE CONDITIONS BECOME BETTER
PHASED. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS WELL DUE TO THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST MARGINAL EFFECT SHEAR...BUT
THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY PARTICULAR PERIOD TO FOCUS ON
BESIDE MARGINAL INCREASE FROM THE WEEKEND ON DUE TO BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. WILL KEEP BROAD MENTION OF BOTH THREATS GOING IN
THE HWO.

&&

.AVIATION...20/18Z
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST IN A ZONE OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN IOWA THAT  EXTENDS BACK INTO SOUTH DAKOTA.
SHOWERS AND STORMS KEEP REDEVELOPING IN THIS ZONE EVEN BACK INTO
NEBRASKA AND WILL CONTINUE TO FESTER OVER TAF LOCATIONS FROM FOD TO
ALO AND MCW THROUGH 02Z.  THERE MAY BE A SHORT BREAK THIS EVENING
BEFORE A STRONG PUSH OF MOISTURE SURGES INTO IOWA ON A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET.  ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STORMS MAY
INTENSIFY PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW OF THE MORE ROBUST
STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND AND HAIL.  MVFR VSBYS WILL LARGELY
PREVAIL EITHER DUE TO FOG AND/OR HEAVY RAIN.  CIGS WILL ALSO LOWER
IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...FAB



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