Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 092129
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
329 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DEALT WITH
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE WEST.
LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER RUC FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. TIMING OF
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE
BRINGING IN CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. THINK THERE WILL BE A
LONG ENOUGH WINDOW OVER THE NORTHEAST TO ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET
BELOW ZERO...EVEN WITH THE WINDS REMAINING AROUND 5-10 KNOTS. MAY
SEE SEE A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND ACROSS THE WEST BUT TIMING OF THE
CLOUD COVER TO ENTER THE WEST LOOKS MORE LIKELY BY 09Z.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE
FLOW EVERY 36-48 HRS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS FLOW WILL FINALLY BREAK OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HUDSON BAY
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS ALLOWING A GRADUAL TRANSITION
TO MORE WESTERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES (POSSIBLY MUCH
WARMER) TOWARDS NEXT TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY IN THE 7-10 DAY
RANGE.

THE FIRST SHORT WAVE ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING LIGHT
SNOW TO MUCH OF THE AREA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO ONE AND
ONE HALF INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WITH ABOVE CLIMO SNOW RATIOS
A DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER AND A PERIOD OF MODERATE FORCING. THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AND ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE INCH
EXPECTED. FORTUNATELY THE WIND DURING THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO
BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. BREEZIER CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT COULD CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW PROBLEMS IN REGARDS TO CAUSING
SNOW COVERED ROADS BUT CERTAINLY NOT A HEADLINE CRITERIA EVENT.

ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRANSITION FLOW.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN THE TWO
PREDECESSORS...THEREFORE MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR 2+ INCHES OF
SNOW. THE TRANSITION TO SFC SOUTHERLY FLOW BY MONDAY WILL BRING
WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY OTHERWISE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...09/18Z
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

MVFR STRATUS LOOKS TO AFFECT ALO/OTM OVER NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH
SOME FLURRIES FALLING AT OTM. MCW REPORTING FALSE CEILINGS AS MUCH
OF THE WEB CAMERAS AND IDOT PLOW CAMERAS...AND PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
REMAINS CLEAR. SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...MIGHT SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR VIS BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND LEFT OUT MENTION ATTM AT MCW. OTHERWISE...WINDS FINALLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE STATE. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ENTIRE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT AT
OTM/ALO AS MENTIONED ABOVE.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...PODRAZIK


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