Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FXUS63 KDMX 241745
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1145 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS FOCUSED ON MAX TEMPS AND PRECIP
CHANCES ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LEANED
TOWARD THE WARMER SOLUTIONS IN THE SREF/ECMWF/RUC FOR MAX TEMPS
TODAY. DECENT MIXING WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM +4C TO
+6C...PER BUFR SOUNDINGS...OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST IOWA.
TWEAKED UP MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO IN THIS LOCATION...AS WELL AS
OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS AREA IS A LITTLE TRICKIER WITH MODELS
HOLDING ONTO SOME LOW STRATUS THAT IS FURTHER EAST THAN WHAT THEY
ARE DEPICTING AND THUS HAVE COOLER TEMPS FORECAST. THE ECMWF MOS
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD DEPICTION AND LEANED CLOSER TO THIS
SOLUTION OVER THE NORTHEAST AND BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP ABOUT 2-3
DEGREES.

THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER BRINGING IN PRECIP FROM CLIPPER SYSTEM
THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO NAM/ECMWF/SREF. FRM SOUNDINGS LOOK TO
BECOME COMPLETELY SATURATED B/T 23-02Z TODAY AND MCW NOT UNTIL
AFTER 00Z. HAVE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST AFTER
22Z PER HRRR AND HOPWRF TIMING...AS WELL AS THE 4.0KM SPC WRF.
HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH MUCH QPF...IF ANY AT ALL BEFORE 00Z
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A NUMBER OF CHANGES WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE EXTENDED...FROM FAST
MOVING CLIPPERS TO A WARM UP FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. TONIGHTS CLIPPER QUICKLY MOVING INTO
THE AREA BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN POOR AGREEMENT
WITH TRACK OF SYSTEM. NAM/GFS STILL FARTHER NORTH WITH TRACK WHILE
00Z EURO NOW FARTHER SOUTH WITH TRACK AND SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR
COMING INTO THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. THE TIMING ALSO VARIES BETWEEN
MODELS WITH THE EURO ABOUT 3 TO 4 HOURS SLOWER IN FULL ARRIVAL
WITH LIFT AND MOISTURE. HAVE LEANED A BIT TOWARD THE EURO DUE TO
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN PACKAGES AND PREVIOUS PREFERENCE OF DAY SHIFT.
MOISTURE CONCERNS ALSO COMING INTO PLAY. NAM/GFS BOTH HIGHER ON
QPF...NEARING .30 WHILE THE EURO IS ABOUT HALF AT .10 TO .15
INCHES. SNOWFALL RATIOS ARE GENERALLY GOING TO BE AROUND 12 TO 14
FOR THE SYSTEM AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND...SO SNOWFALL
TOTALS NOT TOO HIGH BUT STILL SOME CONCERNS ABOUT AMOUNTS. SECOND
CONCERN WILL BE THAT WE WILL HAVE A WARM DAY TODAY. MOST AREAS
WITH BEGIN WITH EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR A MIX NORTH CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE SYSTEM. THE 4KM WRF IS
SIMILAR IN TIMING TO THE EURO... BETWEEN 00 AND 02Z FOR A START
TIME ACROSS THE WEST. SOUNDINGS AND H850 TEMPS INDICATE THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OVER THE NORTH FIRST AND
THEN SHIFT SOUTH DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH. LOOKING FOR A RANGE OF LESS THAN 1 INCH CENTRAL
AND SOUTH...SOME OF WHICH WILL MELT WHILE ACROSS THE NORTH
GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH A FEW SPOTS NEARING 2.5 INCHES NORTH.
FOLLOWING THE LOW...WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE NORTH BUT NOT
LIKELY TO POSE ANY REAL PROBLEMS WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE. WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE BY LATE
DAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S NORTH AND
THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH. CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO 20S AS WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY
ALOFT. BY MONDAY ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL TRACK FARTHER
NORTHEAST OF IOWA AND KEEP THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS WILL
WARM TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WEST WHILE THE EAST WILL REMAIN
IN THE UPPER 30S. MILD WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS MN WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF H850 TEMPERATURES
IN THE 6 TO 8C RANGE BY AFTERNOON. HAVE RAISED HIGHS TO THE UPPER
40S NORTHEAST TO MID 50S WEST. IF THE EURO IS MOST CORRECT...UPPER
50S MAY AGAIN OCCUR OVER THE WEST AND POSSIBLY THE CENTRAL. WILL
MONITOR FOR CONTINUED TRENDS THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. ONCE THE SYSTEM
PASSES EAST COLDER AIR RETURNS IN TWO PARTS...THURSDAY TEMPS FALL
ABOUT 15 DEGREES AND LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE TO ROUND OFF THE MONTH. LITTLE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...24/18Z
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z THEN CIGS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH
RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPING. CIGS WILL LIKELY BECOME WIDESPREAD VFR
TO LOW END MVFR THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO ALL
SNOW OVERNIGHT AND WILL LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL BECOMING NORTHWEST THIS EVENING THEN
BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST BY EARLY SUNDAY. PENDING HOW
MUCH SNOW FALLS OVERNIGHT...BLOWING SNOW MAY RESTRICT VSBYS AFT
12Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...DONAVON


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