Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDMX 011744
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1244 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

ANOTHER VERY MESSY FORECAST FOR TODAY.  THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY
MIGRATE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY.  AHEAD OF THE LOW WE WILL CONTINUE
TO DEAL WITH STRATUS AND FOG ALONG WITH A COLD DRIZZLE.  BANDS OF
PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND TO THE WEST WILL WRAP AROUND THE LOW
AND BRING SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO SOUTHERN IOWA...AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES BY.  BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THE WEST SHOULD FINALLY SEE AN
END TO THE SHOWERS BUT STRATUS AND LIKELY SOME DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN.
THE EAST SHOULD SEE SHOWERS THROUGH THE TODAY PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST.  TEMPS WILL AGAIN GO NOWHERE AND I OPTED FOR THE COOL SIDE
OF GUIDANCE OR A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THE UPPER LOW PASSING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WILL OPEN UP AND
SHIFT EAST BY THIS EVENING. POSSIBLE A FEW PATCHES OF VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO THE EARLY EVENING OTHERWISE DRYING
CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING. SOLUTIONS
HAVE COME IN LINE WITH WHAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SUGGESTING THE PAST
48 HRS FOR MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...WILL MOVE INTO MANITOBA TONIGHT THEN DROP
SOUTH AND IMPACT THE STATE ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL FEATURE A
COLD CORE ALOFT WHICH WILL ENHANCE INSTABILITY AS LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN WITH SOME SFC HEATING COMBINED WITH THE COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. SOME WEAK CAPE DOES DEVELOP HOWEVER
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE CAPPED AT 15 KFT OR BELOW AND NEAR
-15C...BOTH OF WHICH SHOULD LIMIT AND THUNDER POTENTIAL. HAVE
INCREASED POPS A BIT OVER THE SOUTH. STILL NO POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH HOWEVER STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT PRECIPITATION WILL NEED TO
BE ADDED FURTHER NORTH PENDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT DETAILS.

TUESDAY WILL BE MILD AND DRY WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
WESTERLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
TUESDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A NARROW WINDOW OF
FORCING AND A SHALLOW RIBBON OF MOISTURE NEAR 750 MB OVER
NORTHEAST/EASTERN IA. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW BY 06Z WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ENDING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER AS THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO
DRAG COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE STATE. A WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WHILE ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL THE DEFAULT RIDGE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS AND
WARMER AIR TO MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE STATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY
NEXT WEEKEND MAY PUSH 80 IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT MOST SITES BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
CIGS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR THROUGH THE EVENING...AND MAY CLEAR
OUT OVERNIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH. KOTM...EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WITH LOW CIGS ALL NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE FOG ISSUES AS
WELL. IF SKIES CLEAR OUT AND WINDS DROP...THERE WILL BE FOG
POTENTIAL AT ALL TAF SITES BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...BEERENDS


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.