Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 242125 AAA
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
325 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

COUPLE OF CONCERNS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN RATHER STRONG OVER NORTHERN AND
NORTHWEST IOWA AT THIS TIME WITH SUSTAINED WINDS PULSING TO OVER 30
MPH AT TIMES. HAVE ALREADY CLEARED A FEW OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
FROM THE WIND ADV...BUT WILL PROBABLY LEAVE THE REMAINDER UP UNTIL
00Z AS PLANNED. MAIN COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
IOWA NOW WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH/COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHERN IOWA.
THIS IS THE LEADING EDGE OF ANOTHER PV ANOMALY DROPPING SOUTH THIS
EVENING WHICH WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW NORTH/NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO A HALF INCH OR SO MOST AREAS THAT RECEIVE SNOW. SOME
BLOWING SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE NORTH WHERE HEAVIER TOTALS OCCURRED
SINCE LAST NIGHT. HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHTLY PATCHY BLOWING SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM FINALLY LIFTS
EAST NORTHEAST THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO QUIET DOWN. ALONG
WITH AN END OF THE LIGHT SNOW AND CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR BY
LATE NIGHT. UPSTREAM STRATUS RIGHT NOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MN
BECOMING A BIT MORE CELLULAR IN NATURE NOW...SO SOME BREAK UP SHOULD
OCCUR AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. TEMPS UPSTREAM QUITE COLD AND
SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM DROPPING INTO THE 10S MOST AREAS BY MORNING
WITH READINGS NEAR 10 ABOVE FAR NORTH.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

CENTRAL IOWA WILL FIND ITSELF BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS ON TUESDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY
WHICH WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WARMING TEMPS.  HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHEAST TO AROUND 40 FAR SOUTHWEST.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER THE HIGH WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS A
PRETTY IMPRESSIVE CLIPPER SYSTEM SWEEPS OUT OF CANADA...ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND THROUGH IOWA BEFORE PUSHING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE MODELS HAVE ALL SETTLED ON THE LOW MOVING
FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND ARE ALL A LITTLE FASTER BRINGING THE FORCING
INTO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST. I HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING JUST
AFTER 00Z NOW AND CHANCE POPS BY 03Z. ALTHOUGH FORCING PUSHES INTO
ALL OF CENTRAL IOWA BY 06Z THE BEST FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR
CENTRAL IOWA OCCURS FROM AROUND 06Z THROUGH AROUND 09Z AND THAT IS
WHEN MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD FALL ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. THE EAST WILL SEE SNOW THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING AND
SOUTHEAST LIKELY ALL DAY.

A SECOND LOBE OF FORCING BRUSHES THE NORTHEAST LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  I THOUGHT IS WAS WORTH KEEPING AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS PERIOD FOR THAT
REASON ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WOULD
BE EARLY EVENING.  AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE
POTION OF CENTRAL IOWA COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.  TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD AND
WE MAY EVEN SEE A MIX FAR SOUTHEAST DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALSO NOTEWORTHY IS THAT WINDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE CRAZY
SO BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL BE MINIMIZED.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES WE GET INTO A RATHER MILD PERIOD.  THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL.  THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAKER
SYSTEMS IN THE OFFING BUT IF THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL THEY SHOULD AT
LEAST FOR THE MOST PART...REMAIN NORTH OF IOWA.  THERE IS ONE SYSTEM
PROGGED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHICH MAY ACTUALLY BRUSH
NORTHEAST IOWA BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANYTHING MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL PUSH
ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND THIS ONE SHOULD REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE STATE.

NEXT WEEK WE BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO A COLD PATTERN AS A LOW DIGS
INTO THE S.W. U.S. WITH LONG WAVE TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...24/18Z
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WINDS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH LIGHT FZDZ NORTHEAST INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON AS WELL. WILL MONITOR FOR EXTENT...BUT A FEW REPORTS
FROM KCID BACK TO KMIW OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. AS SYSTEM PULLS
OUT THIS EVENING...CIGS WILL RISE TO VFR LEVELS BETWEEN 04 TO 08Z.
AFT 00Z WINDS WILL GENERALLY RELAX WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
NORTH...THEN DIMINISHING THERE AFTER 07Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS RETURN FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
PERIOD./REV


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CERRO GORDO-EMMET-
HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-
WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...REV



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