Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FXUS63 KDMX 260447
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1147 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

LINGERING LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 WILL END BY
02Z AT THE LATEST. COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE STATE AND IS LOCATED
WELL INTO MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. DECENT CAA WILL MAINLY BRING
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE WINDS DECOUPLE AND
DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE STATE AND EXPECTING THE STRATUS DECK TO BEGIN DISSIPATING ACROSS
NORTHWEST IOWA BY 03Z AND THEN FURTHER SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z THURSDAY.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WRT TO TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND LEANED
TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS/ECMWF FOR LOWS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

FEW REAL CONCERNS OF HIGH IMPACTFUL WEATHER IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AS
YESTERDAYS SYSTEM PULLS OUT AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE REGION BY TONIGHT. A SERIES OF
FAST MOVING SYSTEMS WILL GLIDE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE H500 TROUGH ENDING
UP NEAR IOWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
FARTHER EAST FRIDAY EVENING. THE SECOND IS LIKELY TO BRING A ROUND
OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO THE AREA WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE AREA SOME LIFT WILL OCCUR ALONG AN UPPER
LEVEL STATIONARY BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT WHICH WILL RESULT IN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE THERMAL PROFILES FROM
BUFKIT...ITS LIKELY TO PRODUCE A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW WITH ONLY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AND LITTLE IF ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. ICE
INTRODUCTION IS LOST OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST...SO SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY ALSO OCCUR FROM 06Z TO 12Z SATURDAY. THOUGH
THE PATTERN WILL NOT RESULT IN MUCH PRECIPITATION CLOUD COVER WILL
BE GENERALLY PLENTIFUL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PERIODS OF
PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH SATURDAY. ALONG WITH THAT
THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PROMOTE BELOW NORMAL READINGS THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
FINALLY ON SATURDAY...A RETURN TO MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE WESTERN
STATES COMBINED WITH THE H500 TROUGH PULLING EAST SHOULD RESULT IN
RISING HEIGHTS...THICKNESS...AND TEMPERATURE. WITH ANOTHER FAST
MOVING WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
...BRINGING A NICE RECOVERY TO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF
FEATURES AND WINDS...THEY LACK AGREEMENT IN AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES. BOTH THE GEM/EURO SUGGEST A BAND OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST ALONG A TRAILING COLD FRONT WHILE THE
GFS IS HOLDING TO A LESS ACTIVE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING.
THE MOISTURE SOURCE APPEARS TO BE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST RATHER
THAN THE GULF FOR THIS SYSTEM...SO A BLEND OF MODELS IS PROBABLY
JUSTIFIED AT THIS POINT WITH THE GFS HAVING A MORE REALISTIC
HANDLE ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING
TO MIGRATE EAST DURING THE END OF THE PERIOD...ANY COLD AIR WILL
NOT HAVE A CHANCE TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION. THUS...ALREADY ON
MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE
60S...LOWS IN THE 40S. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A LEE SIDE TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO ENVELOP THE PLAINS. ALONG WITH THAT...THE MED RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST A RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE TO THE MID TO UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR A MORE ACTIVE
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME NEAR LATE TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION NEXT WEEK...AND THUS
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR BUT MAY INITIATE JUST EAST OF THE
REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY. NONE THE LESS...THE TIMING WILL DETERMINE
THE LOCATION OF THE CONVECTION AND ANY SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM MAY BRING CONVECTION BACK TOWARD OUR AREA. HIGHS EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL BE QUITE MILD...WITH THE 60S AND 70S FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...26/06Z
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
KDSM/KALO/KOTM CIGS MAY APPROACH MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT HIGH CLOUDINESS EXITING NW-SE WITH
POSSIBLY SOME LOW END VFR CIGS AGAIN DURING PEAK HEATING THU
AFTERNOON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...SMALL


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