Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FXUS63 KDMX 012044
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
344 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG S/WV MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER
RIDGE. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR SO...WITH A SECOND SYSTEM BREAKING TROUGH THE RIDGE LATER
NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

SURFACE HIGH DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BARELY MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SOME AFTERNOON DIURNAL CUMULUS
DEVELOPING WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH
00Z BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING WITH THE SUNSET. LITTLE TO NO SHEAR
PRESENT WITH MUCAPE VALUES BARELY TOPPING 2000J/KG IN THE SOUTH. MAY
SEE SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL...BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH ANY STORMS REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA.

WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE BEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED UNDER THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WENT NEAR
MAVMOS OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FOR MINIMUM TEMPS IN THIS LOCATION.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES WITH ONGOING TEMP FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THINGS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THOUGH
CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...THE AREAL COVERAGE
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT PUTTING IN THE ZONES. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...DEW POINTS WILL START CLIMBING.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE BY MONDAY AND TUE WITH CAPE VALUES WELL
OVER 3000 J/LG OVER NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF NORTHERN IA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN DEEPER MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AND
THE THETA-E ADVECTION IS THE STRONGEST. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE IN BY LATER FRI INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND WITH ONLY A SMALL
BREAK BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THE RAINFALL WILL BE VERY
BENEFICIAL FOR FINISHING THE CROP.

&&

.AVIATION...01/18Z
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. VERY DIFFICULT TO DISCERN A WIND DIRECTION/SPEED THROUGH
TOMORROW AND WITH SUBSIDENCE AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...HAVE IFR
TO MVFR FOG MENTIONED AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT DSM. THERE IS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA AND MISSOURI TODAY
AND MAY SPAWN A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH MENTIONING ANY TS IN TAFS WITH MINIMAL
COVERAGE AND PULSE NATURE STORMS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

LITTLE RAINFALL OF CONSEQUENCE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS
THE MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM MOVED ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...RAIN
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD. THERE IS INCONSISTANCY IN THE MODELS ON
PLACEMENT...BUT MOST AGREE WITH A SWATH OF DECENT RAINFALL THROUGH
THE FIRST TO MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT DRY
CONDITIONS...WOULD NOT EXPECT FLOODING AND ONLY MODELS WITHIN BANK
RISES ON AREA RIVERS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS AUG 14
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...MS AUG 14
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
HYDROLOGY...MS AUG 14


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