048
FNUS73 KDMX 301811
FWSDMX

Spot Forecast for Union Grove North Rx...Iowa Department of Natural Resources Otter
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
111 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on April 30.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

An initial observation at ignition and a mid burn observation are required.

Please relay them to the National Weather Service for each prescribed burn.

.DISCUSSION...

Showers and some thunderstorms embedded are spreading to the
northeast early this afternoon. This is not the main round of
severe weather expected later this afternoon. Rainfall amounts
with this first round have been limited to around a tenth of an
inch. Showers will continue to spread over generally north of
I-80 for the rest of the afternoon with stronger thunderstorms
expected to arrive near the burn site between 6 and 7pm.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........44 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 10 to 18 mph shifting to the
                    south 20 to 21 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 14 to 23 mph increasing to 25 to 31 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (15000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (111900 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (117900
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
GFDI................1.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........8   16  25  34  45  33  30  37
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............59  64  68  72  75  75  76  77
RH..............69  63  59  53  47  46  44  44
20 FT wind dir..SE  S   SE  S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..10  12  14  15  16  18  20  21
20 FT wind gust.15  17  18  21  23  26  28  29
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 1.9 2.7 4.2 5.0 5.1 5.0 4.4
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.14  16  18  21  23  25  28  31
GFDI............0   0   0   1   1   1   1   2
Haines index....4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/100015  27  43  76  100 112 120 118

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (20-30 percent) then becoming
                    mostly clear (0-10 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms in the evening, then slight
                    chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 48.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 17 to 22 mph shifting to the west 9
                    to 15 mph in the late evening and overnight.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 22 to 30 mph becoming west 12 to 18 mph
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (50400 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (4300 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
GFDI................1.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........58     91     80     31     6      5
Weather cov.....CHANCE DEFNTE CHANCE S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE DEFNTE CHANCE S CHC
Temp............75     69     63     58     54     50
RH..............47     61     78     90     93     93
20 ft wind......S 21   S 20   W 15   W 14   W 13   W 10
20 ft wind gust.29     28     23     21     18     15
Mix hgt (ft)....1900   800    800    600    600    500
Transport wind..S 30   S 24   SW 18  W 15   W 15   W 12
GFDI............1      1      0      0      0      0
Haines index....5      4      4      4      5      5
SDspl kt-ft/100050     17     13     7      7      5

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent) then becoming partly
                    sunny (50-60 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 8 to 9 mph shifting to the east
                    around 9 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 10 to 17 mph shifting to the east 9
                    to 10 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (33400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
GFDI................0.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........7         27        40        39
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............48        57        66        70
RH..............93        67        43        38
20 FT wind......W 9G14    NW 9G14   N 12G16   NE 9G14
Mix hgt (ft)....400       1200      2600      3300
Transport wind..W 12      NW 13     NW 14     E 10
GFDI............0         0         0         0
Haines index....5         5         5         5
SDspl kt-ft/10004         13        31        28

$$
Forecaster...Jimenez
Requested by...Matt Shanklin
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412769.0/DMX
.DELDT 04/30/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL matt.shanklin@dnr.iowa.gov