Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 281157
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
657 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

DEEP UPPER LOW NORTH OF MINNESOTA BRINGING COLDER AIR WITH WRAP AROUND
LOW CLOUDS PROGGED TO ARRIVE IN FORECAST AREA MID TO LATE MORNING.
NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH ENOUGH UPSTREAM ENERGY
TO KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS NEXT 12+ HOURS. NORTHWEST FLOW NOTED UPSTREAM
TO KEEP AREA NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL NEXT FEW DAYS AND DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...OVERALL GOOD WITH MAIN ISSUE ARRIVAL
AND SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF WRAP AROUND CLOUDS. NON-HYDROSTATIC ASPECTS
SUPPORT MORE CLOUDS MAY BE NEEDED NORTH OF I-80 AND DEFINITELY NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 30 ALONG AND NORTH OF WRAP AROUND VORT LOBE AND UPPER JET.
THIS MAY KEEP NORTH 1/3 HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW CURRENT FORECAST.`
STRONG BL MIXING AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUPPORTS WESTERLY WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30+ MPH.

TODAY...COOL AND BREEZY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34 CORRIDOR
WITH WINDS ABOUT 5 TO 8 MPH LIGHTER THAN NORTH 2/3 OF THE AREA ALONG
IA/MO BORDER. LOW CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD NORTH 1/3 TO 1/2 OF REGION
AS MENTIONED ABOVE BY LATE MORNING AND TO AROUND HIGHWAY 34 CORRIDOR
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL ENHANCE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WITH HIGHS AROUND 60F FAR SOUTH TO LOWER 50S ALONG HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR.

TONIGHT...SUBSIDENCE TO ALLOW CLOUDS TO CLEAR BY LATE EVENING OVER AREA
SOUTH OF I-80 AND BY MORNING AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR.
LOWS MAY NEED TRIMMING MOST LOCATIONS BY 2 TO 3 DEGREES IF SKIES CLEAR
AND WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 MPH BY DAYBREAK FOR LATER SHIFTS AS BL WOULD
DECOUPLE.     NICHOLS

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...PASSING SFC RIDGE LOBE SHOULD MAKE FOR A
FAIR WX DAY BUT WEAK MIXING HOLDING TEMPS DOWN IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S ESPECIALLY AFTER COOL START TO THE DAY. LATEST SUITE OF 00Z
RUN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL SHUTTLE A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM DOWN
ACRS THE REGION ON THU AS WESTERN ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON PRE-SYSTEM MOISTURE FEED AND EXTENT OF
LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME PRECIP ACRS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL BE...WITH
MODELS VARYING FROM TOTALLY DRY TO THE 00Z GFS .10 TO .20 OF AN INCH
OF RAIN ACRS THE NORTH HALF. WITH SUCH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND
DRY SUB-H7 MB LEVELS ON FCST SOUNDINGS...MAIN EFFECT WILL PROBABLY
BE A BAND OF ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME
SPRINKLES OUT OF THIS HIGHER DECK...BUT WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS
FOR PATCHY LIGHT ELEVATED SHOWERS WITH MOST COVERAGE AND OCCURRENCE
DURING THU MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. DESPITE CLOUDS AND
EVAPO-COOLING EFFECTS...PRE-WAVE WAA TO HELP WARM TEMPS ON THU WELL
UP INTO THE 50S WITH SOME AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA PUSHING 60
DEGREES. AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES...THE OTHER SHOE TO DROP AS
SEASONABLY STRONG CANADIAN RIDGE SURGES DOWN THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS
RVR VALLEY UNDER L/W TROF AMPLIFICATION LATE THU NIGHT. STOUT CAA ON
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS LATE TO ADVECT TEMPS WELL DOWN IN THE 30S
BY FRI MORNING...AND LATEST MODEL RUNS NOW SHUNT CAA PRECIP BACK
FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CWA WRUNG OUT BY TIGHTENING
CYCLONIC FLOW AND GRT LKS DIGGING WAVE IN THE TROF AXIS. TOP-DOWN
COOLING ENOUGH ON LATEST RUNS MAY MAKE FOR PRECIP TYPE CONCERNS
EARLY FRI MORNING IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA IF INDEED PRECIP CAN MAKE
IT OR DEVELOP THIS FAR WEST. BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY INTO
FRI MORNING AND WATCH FOR FURTHER CONTINUITY PRECIP COVERAGE ON
LATER MODEL RUNS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HALLOWEEN TO BE A COLD BLUSTERY DAY WITH
ONGOING CAA IN IN-BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE LATEST RUNS
HAVE TRENDED BACK COLDER WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES FRI
INTO FRI NIGHT...ENOUGH SO THAT WITH ANY TYPE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
CLOUDS TEMPS ON FRI COULD BE HELD IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. RIDGE
OVERHEAD FOR CLEAR OUT AND SFC WIND DECOUPLE WITH LINGERING
CANADIAN AIRMASS IN PLACE IS STILL SUGGESTING LOWS BY SAT MORNING
WIDESPREAD 20S AND A SOLID HARD FREEZE WINDOW FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL
FCST AREA. THE LATEST RUNS ESPECIALLY THERMAL PROJECTIONS ON THE
00Z ECMWF EVEN SUGGEST SOME LOWER 20S POSSIBLE NORTH OF I80 IN
FAVORED COLD AIR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS. COOL CORE RIDGE MIGRATES
EASTWARD ACRS THE REGION SAT FOR SUNNY BUT COOL CONDITIONS AFTER
SUCH A CHILLY START TO THE DAY.

NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY...INCREASING ELEVATED RETURN FLOW BEHIND
PASSING OMEGA RIDGE COMPLEX MAY START TO SPAWN HIGH BASED WAA
SHOWERS ACRS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER ON SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS STILL TO MODERATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LONGER RANGE
INDICATIONS SUGGEST MAIN UPSTREAM CYCLONE TO GET SHUNTED
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT OFF THIS WAVE TO LAY OUT SOMEWHERE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND UP INTO THE GRT LKS AN ACT AS A RETURN FLOW/WARM
MOIST CONVEYOR-INTERCEPTOR TO COVERAGE UPON. THUS THE REGION COULD BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO BANDED RAIN OR SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUT PLENTY OF
PHASING ISSUES AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE LAY OUT TO FINE TUNE
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN FOR MORE CERTAINTY...BUT CHC POPS WARRANTED
FOR MON/MON NIGHT FOR NOW.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

FAIR SKIES ALL TERMINALS WITH WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 30
MPH BY LATE MORNING. AT DBQ AND CID TERMINALS ...BKN-OVC CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP WITH BASES OF 3-4K AGL TO ARRIVE BETWEEN 28/15Z AND 28/18Z.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER 29/00Z WITH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH.
THE MLI AND BRL TERMINALS WILL SEE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS 10 TO 25+ MPH
AND FEW- SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 4-5K AGL AFTER 28/16Z THROUGH SUNSET.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH ALL TERMINALS TO 5 TO 10 MPH DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...NICHOLS






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