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000
FXUS63 KDVN 170447
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1147 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO NW IOWA AT 2 PM PROVIDING TYPICAL
EARLY SUMMER WEATHER WITH CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN NW FLOW NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH DRY TO MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER AND COOLING TREND BY MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

TONIGHT...MOSTLY FAIR TO FAIR WITH LIGHT WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME
PATCHY FOG TO ASSESS TOWARD MID EVENING. MINS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL OF AROUND 60F NE SECTIONS TO MID 60S S/SW SECTIONS.
ISOLATED SHOWER OR POSSIBLE A WEAK STORM POSSIBLE FAR SW SECTIONS
TOWARD MORNING.

MONDAY...VERY WEAK WIND SHIFT LINE TO PASS THAT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
WITH HEATING IF DEWPOINTS REACH WELL INTO THE MID 60S FOR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE TO BE REACHED. ANY STORMS LIKELY TO BE BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS WITH ISOLATED STRONG PULSE STORM POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS
OVER 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL TO PENNIES MID/LATE PM HOURS. HIGHS 82
TO 86 DEGREES...WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL.

NICHOLS

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.MONDAY NIGHT...A SUBTLE 700/500MB SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON SUNDAY EVENING WHICH COULD TOUCH OFF A SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. I HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FORECAST
UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY MORNING.

.TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SUNNY AND PLEASANT...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE WINDS WILL ADVECT MUCH
LOWER DEWPOINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL MAKE FOR PLEASANT SUMMER WEATHER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE COOL WITH 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH.

.FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...ON FRIDAY THE LONG RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO BUILD A LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND MOVE IT SLOWLY EAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ALSO AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL OPEN THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO ADVECT MOISTURE BACK INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WARM
ADVECTION...INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL PRODUCE
VERY WARM TO HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY
WILL BE IN THE MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S OR LOW
70S. ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND BECOME QUASI STATIONARY NEAR
THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KUHL

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS EVENING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NE
EAST THROUGH IA. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL KS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST. WHILE THESE STORMS WILL STAY WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THEY WILL SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE CLOUDS AND DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER NIGHT TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE VISIBILITIES IN THE 1 TO 3 MILE RANGE FOR
A WHILE EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY WILL BE DRY MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE SOME
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT THE LOW DEWPOINTS
SHOULD KEEP THE COVERAGE SCATTERED. HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH AT KCID
AND KBRL EARLY MONDAY EVENING. KEPT THE MENTION OF SHRA OUT OF THE
KMLI AND KBRL TAFS WITH THE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT BEFORE DYING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...KUHL
AVIATION...DLF