Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 160546
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1246 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A windy weekend with a cool down on track into early next week,
  but then temperatures to rebound by midweek.

- Overall generally quiet weather through the period as most
  precipitation producing systems miss the area.

- Low confidence on rain chances late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Tonight...Central plains/MO RVR Valley sfc ridge to slide
southeastward, while a vigorous upper low currently acrs
northeastern Manitoba digs down toward the north central GRT LKS in
amplifying northwesterlies aloft. As a result, rather light west to
northwest winds will back to the southwest and increase toward
morning as an associated sfc front plows it`s way down into northern
IA by 12z Sat. A backing and increasing H85 mb LLJ to 35-40+ KTs
will be warm advecting, and combined with the sfc increase we may a
non-diurnal temp trend toward dawn. Sfc temps look to dip into the
mid to upper 30s before the steady to slow climb affect occurs.

Saturday...Interesting day with a breezy wind-switch around the
FROPA(frontal passage) process mid to late morning. Pre-frontal west-
southwest sfc winds may gust up to 30 MPH in the morning with
warming-mixing boosting temps early. Then the FROPA occurs with an
eventual wind veer west to northwest as the afternoon progresses.
Deeper post-frontal mixing seen on fcst sounding profiles to
possibly transport surge northwesterly sfc wind gusts to 35-40 MPH
during the afternoon. The deep mixing and a bit of a lower thickness
lag behind the front also to help the 75th percentile high temp
scenario and will go mid 50s north, to the low to mid 60s in the far
southern CWA. Robust low to mid level F-gen along and behind
the front may try to produce spotty precip in any more developed
stratocu trying to stream acrs the area(northeastern half of
the CWA) during the afternoon. But vertical profiles are dry and
suspect just a few sprinkles or virga may develop if anything
at all, again in the more organized and lower stratocu decks or
patches. Will keep the fcst dry for now.

With the gusty winds and lowering humidity in the afternoon combined
with all the still cured dried/winter dead warm season vegetation/
brush acrs the area, looks like another enhanced fire danger day on
tap for Saturday. Grassland Fire Danger Index(GFDI) values go well
up in the very high range, but not enough or widespread extreme
values to support a Red Flag Warning headline. Will still advertise
an enhanced fire danger in several other products.   ..12..

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Saturday night through Monday: In the wake of the strong cold front,
temperatures will be much colder on northwest winds. Deep trough
centered over the Great Lakes region will send polar air into the
Midwest with h8 temps of -13C. Any snow showers associated with this
system looks to remain well to our northeast. Highs will be only in
the upper 30s to lower 40s and lows in the upper teens to mid 20s.

Tuesday through Friday: The cold air is short-lived as we get back
into a near zonal flow, as the deep trough moves to the New England
states. Temperatures warm into the 50s to lower 60s for highs with
lows in the 30s. Late in the week, the GFS is showing the potential
for some rain but the ECMWF is farther south and keeps the forecast
area dry. Being about a week away low confidence in the track of
this storm system.

Looking beyond: Both global models indicate an intense spring
cyclone in the central United States about March 24-25. When both
the ECMWF and GFS are similar there is better confidence. Stay tuned!

Haase

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period as mostly high
clouds affect TAF sites. What does become an impact are the
winds and wind gusts today. With gusts reaching 30kts in some
areas this afternoon, expect this to be the main impact. A front
will move through today leading to more northely winds late.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...Gibbs


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