Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 012008
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
308 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WHILE THE COLD FRONT IS JUST MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD FOCUS THE
DEEP CONVECTION IS WELL DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST. IN ITS WAKE...WE
ARE WELL MIXED AND MILD...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS
IN THE MID 60S. ONLY ISOLATED...EXTREMELY SMALL SHOWERS ARE LOCATED
ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NORTH...AND THIS SHOULD NOT DEVELOP UPSCALE
INTO MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH A QUICK EVENING
DECREASE IN CLOUDS...AND CONTINUED LIGHT DRY ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST
WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT RADIATION AL COOLING...WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST.
TUESDAY...UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS...ANOTHER MILD DAY IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IS EXPECTED. IT SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT
SENSIBLE WEATHER DAY WITH DEW POINTS OF 56 TO 62 AND AN AFTERNOON
BREEZY AROUND 10 MPH FROM THE WEST.   CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE MAINLY
PARTLY CLOUDY...EXCEPT IN THE NORTH WHERE A PERIOD OF BROKEN
CLOUDINESS MAY OCCUR AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH
WISCONSIN...AIDING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TO THE EAST COAST.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH IN THE
FLOW ALOFT. SOME MODELS ARE PRODUCING PRECIPITATION WHILE OTHERS ARE
NOT. ALL MODELS AGREE THAT A WEAK THETA E GRADIENT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THAT...WHEN COMBINED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING...
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.

GOING WITH THE SCENARIO OF ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OCCURRING...THE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. WHEN THIS CONVECTION AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER EXIT
THE AREA WILL BE CRUCIAL TO HOW WARM IT WILL GET ON THURSDAY.

IF THE CLOUDS/CONVECTION EXIT EARLY IN THE MORNING...HUMID SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HEAT
INDEX READINGS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S. IF CONVECTION PERSISTS
LONGER INTO THE DAY...AS SUGGESTED BY A FEW MODELS...THEN
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET AS WARM IN SPITE OF THE HUMID SOUTHERLY
FLOW.

THURSDAY NIGHT ON...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN EACH 12 HOUR PERIOD. ALL MODELS AGREE THAT
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BUT
DISAGREE ON THE OVERALL TIMING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

ON MONDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. THE MODELS DIVERGE ON
THEIR SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW FAST THE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

QUIET AVIATION WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS HIGH
PRESSURE SWEEPS INTO THE REGION. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHERN IOWA...BRINGING LITTLE MORE THAN A
SLIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT AND A FEW PASSING
SPRINKLES/SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST IOWA. THESE SHOULD NOT IMPACT TAF
SITES. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS...A BRIEF
MVFR CIG IS POSSIBLE AT DBQ THROUGH 19Z...OTHERWISE...ALL CIGS
SHOULD BE 3500 FT OR ABOVE. TONIGHT...LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE...WITH A CLEAR VFR DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY. ERVIN


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...ERVIN




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