Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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192
FXUS63 KDVN 290817
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
317 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

As of 300 AM...Very cool by mid June standards. Temps currently
in the lower to upper 50s under clear skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Today...Another comfortable day with high temps in the upper 70s
to lower 80s and dewpoints in the 50s. There is a slight chance
for an isolated shower or thunderstorm over the extreme western
section of the forecast area this aftn. However, factors such as
a dry sfc-500mb tropospheric profile, low PWATs under 1 inch, and
very weak QG forcing all favor dry conditions for most areas.

By the evening, increasing moisture (PWATs up to 1.25 inches) and
MUCAPE at or slightly above ~500 J/kg across the western CWA will
be an environment conducive for an isolated shower or storm. At
this time, PoPs are between 20-40%. Hi-res models such as the
HRRR/NAM/ARW keep coverage very isolated.

Tonight...Models are tracking a vorticity max through the Upper
Mississippi River Valley from the NW. GFS more aggressive in
extending isolated showers and thunderstorms into the DVN CWA,
especially west of the Mississippi River. ECMWF/NAM12, are close
to dry. Marginal 850mb moisture convergence and WV transport gives
me low confidence on precip coverage above isolated. Highest PoPs
of ~40% are over the SW CWA.

Thinking many areas likely to remain dry into Thursday morning as
it will be difficult to significantly and rapidly saturate the
column on the heels of a large area of high pressure. Uttech

.LONG TERM...(Thursday THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

A cold front will push through the forecast area Thursday and
Thursday evening. The NAM has been persistent in spreading a swath
of heavy rain across the south, but is likely too moist. The ECMWF
barely clips the northeast and may be too dry. The GFS and GEM are
the more moderate solutions. Right now, it seems reasonable to go
with a band of high chance pops from northwest to southeast, which
can be adjusted either way as the event nears. The far south is
outlooked in the day 2 marginal risk area. Forecast soundings
indicate a tall, skinny CAPE profile with steep low level lapse
rates, and precipitable water values between 1.5 and 2 inches.
Modest mid-level lapse rates and deep layer shear should preclude a
large hail threat. The main issues will likely be isolated strong
wind gusts and localized heavy rain.

The next main window of potential showers and storms in the long
term period will be late Saturday through Sunday. The GFS and ECMWF
advertise a decent shortwave trough and a warm front poised to the
south. Model consensus favors the southern third of the forecast
area for additional rain.

Temperatures through the long term period will be below normal
through Sunday, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, before a
broad upper ridge begins to influence the area early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Wednesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

High pressure will provide light winds and VFR conditions over
the region tonight through Wednesday afternoon. There is a low
potential for ground fog around sunrise, which was included only
at CID with a 6SM visibility. Wednesday evening, there is a small
chance that scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with an
approaching upper level system could reach the CID area. This
potential is too limited to mention in the forecast at this time.

&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Uttech
SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...RP Kinney
AVIATION...Sheets



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