Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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539
FXUS63 KDVN 261721
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1221 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Early this morning...Convection increasing in coverage along and
NW of a Sigourney to Iowa City to Dubuque line. Minimal deep layer
shear of 15-20 kts is unable to sustain organized persistent
updrafts which has resulted in a numerous multicell mode and low
threat for anything severe. Storms have not organized into a
coherent linear MCS, but nonetheless, localized gusts over 40 mph
are possible with the strongest cellular clusters. SPC
mesoanalysis has MUCAPE up to 2000 J/kg, but the moist tropical
airmass (PWATs near ~2 inches) is holding DCAPES down to around
500 J/kg.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Today...Scattered showers and storms transitioning west to east
through the forecast area early this morning, lingering across the
southeast into the mid to late morning before diminishing. No
severe weather is expected.

The greatest threat for rain and storms is across the northern
forecast area, north of highway 30, where frontal convergence and
0-1 km shear is higher at ~25 kts.

A sfc front will push through today, however you would not
realize it based on the very warm forecast highs near 90 F. What
is going to change are the dewpoints, and after a extremely muggy
Saturday it will be a welcomed relief from the humidity. By the
early aftn, dewpoints should have fallen into the 50s across the
NW half of the CWA with low 70s hanging on over the far SE. Peak
heat indices in the mid to upper 90s will be found along and east
of a Memphis, MO to Burlington, IA to Princeton, IL line.

Tonight...Clear and much more comfortable compared to Saturday
night with lows in the 60s and light winds. Uttech

.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Mostly below normal temperatures and relatively low precipitation
chances are the highlights of the long term forecast period.

On Monday, temperatures will begin to cool down north of Highway 30,
with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s. Central and south,
another warm day is expected with highs in the upper 80s to around
90 degrees. The NAM and Hires-ARW are hinting at enough moisture
convergence along a secondary weak boundary to support scattered
storms Monday afternoon and evening in the south. Other models
remain dry so will not introduce pops at this time and let later
shifts re-evaluate.

For Tuesday into Wednesday, expect below normal temps and dry
conditions, with highs in the 70s and lows mainly in the 50s.

Late Wednesday through Saturday, a series of weak wave will drop
southeast through the area. Have stayed close to the low model blend
pops, which cover parts of the forecast area every period. There is
still considerable uncertainty regarding the timing and location of
the various impulses. Right now, Thursday appears most favored for
scattered showers and storms, but most of the period may end up to
be dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

A weak cold front has moved through Iowa into central Illinois.
While warm and humid weather is found over the entire region, the
front will bring dry weather to Iowa and northwest Illinois this
afternoon through Monday. VFR weather will last through the
afternoon and into Monday, with some possible early morning
shallow fog looking a possibility for sunrise conditions Monday.
Winds will be generally light westerly.

&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Uttech
SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...RP Kinney
AVIATION...Ervin



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