Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 181733
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1233 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE DVN CWA
PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST AND WITH THIS UPDATE
HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
CLOUDS ACROSS MN AND FAR NORTHERN IA WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. TIME
HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE ONLY AREAS OF CIRRUS OVER THE CWA TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
PLAINS. A COLD FRONT RAN FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE RAIN OVER ILLINOIS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES TOWARD INDIANA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 20S
AND 30S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WITH 40S AND 50S ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN 10 MPH OR LESS DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

THE UPCOMING WEEK HAS ALL THE APPARENT SIGNS OF BEING A TRUE SPRING
WEEK...WITH EACH DAY OFFERING UP A MILD PROMISE OF LEAVING THE
JACKET IN THE CLOSET WHEN YOU LEAVE YOUR RESIDENCE EACH MORNING.

THIS ENTIRE WEEKEND WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE
EASTERNMOST PART OF IOWA...AND MORE CERTAINLY OVER ILLINOIS. THE
WEAK FORCING ARRIVING FROM THE WEST WILL BE LIKELY ONLY ABLE TO
PRODUCE RAINFALL AT LOCATIONS OF THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
WITH THE MAIN BOUNDARIES LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...I WILL FURTHER REDUCE OUR FORECAST POPS SUNDAY AND
BRING IN THE MODEST CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE
UPPER TROF PASSES OVERHEAD. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK SURFACE LOW
TONIGHT WITH THIS TIME PERIOD...AND SHOULD THAT FEATURE CONTINUE TO
GAIN CONFIDENCE...WE COULD SEE LIKELY COVERAGE OF RAINFALL EVEN
IF DIURNAL TIMING IS NOT FAVORED. THE GFS...WHICH APPEARS TOO
MOIST...IT LARGELY THROWN OUT FOR NOW ON ITS HIGH QPF.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND GUSTY SATURDAY...BUT SUNDAY APPEARS
LESS BREEZY. THUS...FOR THOSE LOOKING TO HAVE EASTER ACTIVITIES
OUTDOORS SUNDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE A REMARKABLE DAY IN THIS OTHERWISE
COLD SPRING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH THE
PASSING WEAK UPPER TROF. MIDS 60S NORTH TO TO AROUND 70 ARE
EXPECTED. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER TROF WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE
ROCKIES...WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO OUR WEST. THIS SHOULD
INCREASE CLOUDS...AND EASTERLY WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDER. WEDNESDAYS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A
TOUCH COOLER WITH THIS RAIN POSSIBLY IN THE AREA WITH DRY LOW LEVEL
FLOW. GUIDANCE HAS COOLED FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S NORTH TO UPPER 60S SOUTH. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE FOR NOW...BUT
COULD EVEN BECOME A COOLER DAY IF WE DO SEE PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND
RAINFALL. FURTHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EXISTS INTO
THURSDAY...WITH MILDER WEATHER AS THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTH BY THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST. WINDS BECOMING
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THEN SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS ON SATURDAY INCREASING TO SUSTAINED 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...HAASE






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