Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 160739
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
239 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy today with highs in the 50s will result in a crisp day
  and Very High Fire Danger.

- Quiet weather for most of the period before precipitation
  returns to the area to end the week. Low confidence (20-30%)
  on precipitation affecting our area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 239 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Early this morning, winds remained out of the SW ahead of a vort
max moving across the upper Great Lakes. This vort max will
swing a `cold front` across the area later this morning. Ahead
of this front, winds are already gusting to near to 30 kts in SW
MN. Winds should increase this morning ahead of the front. Once
the front passes, winds will become more NW. Deep mixing could
mix down gusts of 30-40 MPH as well. The HREF prob exceedance
for wind gusts of 35 mph or more looks better this AM 50-70% vs
this afternoon which seems more isolated and around 20-40%. So
at this time, the better wind gusts will be this AM ahead of the
front. Nonetheless, these winds along with dry fuels will result
in very high fire danger for the area today. Will mention in the
HWO and weather stories. Will plan on issuing a SPS around 6am
today for it.

After this, cooler air moves into the area tonight with lows
into the 20s area wide. H85 temps of -4 to -6 look likely across
the area tonight with better CAA for Sunday. Sunday and Monday
look to have the coolest highs, only in the upper 30s and 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 239 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Little change in the long term this forecast shift. We begin to
warm to start the period as H85 temp advection becomes
negligible. We should moderate to higher temps each day through
the week with highs reaching again into the 50s for midweek.
Overall largescale pattern is weak NW flow into the area, but
most of the systems and reinforcing shots of cold air remains
north of us through the week. Later in the week models diverge
on the momentum fields. A closed low over the SW US will move
north and east towards the area. The timing on this low moving
is all over the place. This is leading to a large temporal
footprint of precipitation into the long term. This will likely
decrease as we see better agreement between the guidance as we
get closer.

Current guidance has our area near the freezing line so we see
some ra/sn mix. Temps during the day should be above freezing
and possibly into the 50s (low confidence, it will likely be
cooler if we are precipitating) with weak moisture return. If we
see precip it will likely be from showers or stratiform rain
processes. Does not look like any thunder at this time. So if we
can stay above freezing during this time, expect to only see
some beneficial rain at the end of the period with little to no
impacts. That all said, closed lows are hard for models to
predict, so overall confidence in this forecast time is low
(20-30%).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period as mostly high
clouds affect TAF sites. What does become an impact are the
winds and wind gusts today. With gusts reaching 30kts in some
areas this afternoon, expect this to be the main impact. A front
will move through today leading to more northely winds late.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...Gibbs


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