Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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925 ACUS01 KWNS 050051 SWODY1 SPC AC 050050 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of the southern High Plains into the Hill Country of central Texas this evening. Several storms may produce very large hail, and a strong tornado remains possible. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a southern-stream short-wave trough ejecting northeast across southern NM/far west TX. Large-scale ascent is increasing immediately downstream of this feature along with southeasterly low-level inflow (1km AGL). LLJ is forecast to strengthen a bit over the next several hours, and this will contribute to upscale convective growth across the Edwards Plateau. Several severe supercells are currently noted across this region, and with time significant clustering should lead to an MCS that will mature and propagate downstream into central TX. Very large hail, in excess of 2 inches, has been observed with the most robust convection and this could remain common until the storm mode becomes more complex. Additionally, strong shear continues to support the possibility of tornadoes, potentially strong for the next few hours. Otherwise, damaging winds will become the primary risk along the leading edge of the MCS later tonight. ..Darrow.. 05/05/2024 $$