079
FNUS22 KWNS 181855
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

Meteorologically Critical fire weather conditions are expected
tomorrow (Sunday) across portions of New Mexico and Texas, as
breezy/gusty surface winds overlap a hot (80s to upper 90s F) and
dry (minimum RH values less than 15%) air mass. However, rainfall
over the past 48 hours (AHPS suggests 0.25-1+ inches) leads to
uncertainties on fuel receptiveness and precludes introducing a
Critical fire weather area at this time. The rainfall was more
spotty further west across portions of northern Arizona, though
fuels remain marginally dry across this area, which should keep any
fire weather concerns Elevated even amidst near Critical
meteorological fire weather conditions. There is also the potential
for lightning holdovers from the recent thunderstorms to become
active as extremely dry air and breezy/gusty winds overlap
increasingly receptive fuels.

..Elliott.. 05/18/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024/

...Synopsis...
Mid-level southwesterly flow will begin to strengthen today across
the Southwest as troughing amplifies across the western CONUS. Dry
and windy conditions are expected across the Southwest as a result
of the deeply mixed airmass transporting some of this stronger flow
to the surface, and a lee cyclone tightening the surface pressure
gradient. Sustained winds may be has high as 20 to 25 mph with
single-digit relative humidity. This will support Critical fire
weather conditions in local areas with drier fuels, but amid only
marginally dry fuels, have elected to keep an Elevated delineation
for now. If stronger winds or drier fuels are apparent, an upgrade
to Critical may be needed in later outlooks.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$