229
ACUS02 KWNS 111739
SWODY2
SPC AC 111737

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of
the central High Plains into much of central and eastern Texas and
western Louisiana on Sunday. A few severe storms are also
anticipated from parts of Wisconsin into Michigan.

...Synopsis...
On Sunday, a positive-tilt upper trough will move from CO and NM
into the central and southern Plains, with a broad area of 50-60 kt
midlevel southwesterlies across TX, OK and LA. Temperatures aloft
are forecast to warm during the day over much of central and eastern
TX, with increasing thicknesses through at least 00Z. A weak surface
trough will develop over the central high Plains southwest into
western TX, with a warm front lifting north across TX and LA.

To the north, cyclonic flow aloft will increase over the upper Great
Lakes as an upper low moves across Ontario. A cold front will extend
southwestward across MI and WI during the afternoon, providing a
focus for daytime storms.

...TX and LA...
Robust boundary layer moisture with mid 70s F dewpoints will spread
north along with a warm front throughout the day, beneath persistent
40-50 kt midlevel winds. Substantial early day convection is
expected within the broad warm advection regime, and some of this
activity could produce periodic hail given favorable effective
shear. Behind the initial activity, additional diurnal storms are
forecast from parts of central into eastern TX by late afternoon.
Uncertainty exists regarding the effective warm front position as
substantial outflow may be produced by earlier storms. However, an
east-west oriented corridor of greater severe threat is expected
along the instability gradient. MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg appears
likely, which will aid robust storms, perhaps a few supercells,
producing large hail and damaging winds. The tornado risk will
depend on mesoscale factors including boundary positions, but
clearly there is potential as low-level shear will be favorable
along the warm front.

...WI into MI...
Strong heating will occur in advance of the cold front, with an
uncapped air mass developing by midday. Cool temperatures aloft
combined with steepening lapse rates will maximize instability
despite dewpoints only in the upper 40s to lower 50s F, with perhaps
1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing. Convergence along the front will likely
yield afternoon storms after 18Z from northern WI into Upper MI,
with increasing coverage along the front through late afternoon. The
cold temperatures aloft and modest shear may favor marginally severe
hail, with areas of strong severe gusts expected as outflow
production is enhanced along the line of storms.

..Jewell.. 05/11/2024

$$