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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161005
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JUN 16 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EARLIER MENTIONED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA IS NO LONGER IDENTIFIABLE AT THE SURFACE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR
11N100W TO 08N118W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N118W TO 09N130W TO
07N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS
BETWEEN 130W-135W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 91W-96W...AND
FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 114W-120W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...W TO SW FLOW IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY
N OF 20N W OF 110W IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH NOW SLIDING TO THE ENE TO THE E OF 128W. THIS IS ALLOWING
FOR MODEST MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEHIND IT ALONG A POSITION
FROM 32N138W TO 24N135W TO 19N131W TO ALSO SLIDE EASTWARD. UPPER
CONFLUENT PATTERN E OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH IS RESULTING IN ABUNDANT MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE
OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA N OF 19N E OF 120W AND N OF 14N
W OF 120W BRINGING MAINTAINING RATHER DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
ACROSS THESE AREAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMLUS CLOUDS
MOVING W TO SW ARE NOTED N OF 15N W OF 130W...AND N OF 20N
BETWEEN 115W AND 120W.

OVER THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE AREA...AN ANTICYCLONE MOVING W IS
PRESENTLY CENTERED NEAR S OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 21N110W WITH
AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 09N92W. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS HELPING
TO SUPPORT VERY ACTIVE AND DEEP CONVECTION S OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC CONSISTING OF THE SCATTERED STRONG INTENSIFY
CENTERED WITHIN 75 NM OF 15N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONEVCTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 15N99W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER WEST-
CENTRAL MEXICO JUST UNDERNEATH THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE. ANOTHER
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONE NNE TO ACROSS
FAR NRN MEXICO AND TO TEXAS. AN UPPER LOW IS NOTED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN JUST E OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ITS BASE REACHING
TO THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EL SALVADOR AND HONDURAS. THIS FEATURE
IS SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOP TSTM ACTIVITY
OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN CARIBBEAN THAT IS ALSO ATTRIBUTED TO
A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING CENTRAL AMERICA. THE WAVE IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WNW OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS WITH ITS SRN PORTION
EXPECTED TO SHEAR OFF AND MOVES THROUGH THE FAR ERN PORTION OF
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AT WHICH A LOW
OF ABOUT 1007 MB TO 1008 MB IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP S OF THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC.

AN E TO W RIDGE OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE COVERS ROUGHLY THE AREA N OF 05N E OF 115W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 11N165W TO ABOUT 07N131W. THIS
TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND COINCIDES WITH A SWATH OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS OBSERVED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCT. THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR
THE ITCZ AXIS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

A NEARLY STATIONARY 1024 MB HIGH PRES IS LOCATED JUST N OF THE
AREA NEAR 33N134W WITH A RIDGING EXTENDING SEWD TO NEAR 21N114W.
HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA TO THE N OF 19N AND W OF 114W. THE
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND GENERALLY LOWER PRES OVER
THE U.S. W COAST HAS RELAXED. AS A RESULT...WINDS HAS DIMINISHED
N OF AREA AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED TO LESS THAN 8 FT ACROSS THE NE
WATERS. THE HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH MON NIGHT...THEN REDEVELOP TO THE NW OF THE AREA AS A
STRONG HIGH CENTER INTO MID-WEEK. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND E FROM
IT...AND INTENSIFY THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS W OF
CALIFORNIA. EXPECT SWELLS FROM THAT AREA TO BEGIN TO SEEP S INTO
THE NE CORNER OF THE AREA BY MON NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING AGAIN
TO 8 FT THERE. NE TRADES OF 20-25 KT WILL BE FOUND S OF THE
RIDGE FROM 10N TO 18N W OF 132W THROUGH 24 HRS...AND FROM 10N TO
18N W OF ABOUT 134W IN 48 HRS WITH SEAS TO 9 FT.

LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS...WITH LEADING EDGE
PERIOD OF 16-17 SECONDS DOMINATE MOST OF THE WATERS E OF 118W
AND THESE SWELLS ARE MERGING WITH THE SUBSIDING NW SWELLS
AFFECTING THE NE WATERS. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF SW SWELLS WILL
INVADE THE SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS TODAY...AND REACH THE COASTLINE
OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO MON WITH ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS.




$$
AGUIRRE