Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4
178
FXUS02 KWBC 140610
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
109 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

VALID 12Z WED FEB 17 2016 - 12Z SUN FEB 21 2016

GUIDANCE PREFERENCE WED INTO THU IS FOR A SOLUTION THAT PRIMARILY
FAVORS THE 00 UTC GFS. THIS SOLUTION OFFERS SOME GREAT LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS AND MODEST CLIPPER PASSAGE ACROSS THE ERN US WED IN THE WAKE
OF THE EARLY WEEK MAIN ERN US WINTER STORM. THE GFS ALSO SEEMS
QUITE REASONABLE WELL UPSTREAM WITH SURFACE LOW/FRONT TRACK FROM
THE ERN PACIFIC INLAND THROUGH THE WEST COAST WHOSE MORE SOUTHWARD
DUG FOCUS COMPARED TO THE 12 UTC ECMWF SEEMS MORE REASONABLE
CONSIDERING UPSTREAM FLOW AMPLITUDE AS PER WATER VAPOR LOOPS. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME HEAVIER PCPN FROM THE PACIFIC NW DOWN THROUGH
CA.

THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS THEN PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM
A COMPOSITE BLEND OF REASONABLY COMPATABLE ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE
LATER DAY 4/THU INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE SOLUTION OFFERS A
PROGRESSIVE ADVANCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND LEADING
SURFACE SYSTEM/WIDESPREAD PCPN TRANSLATION ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES THU INCLUDING SNOWS ENHANCED BY
TERRAIN. ORGANIZED LOW AND FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT THAT WORKS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL THEN ERN US FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND SUPPORTS AMPLE LEAD
WARMING BUT MODEST MOISTURE INFLOW AND FRONTAL FOCUSING PCPN. BEST
SUPPORT SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO THE LOW ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES/NRN NEW ENGLAND...BUT ESPECIALLY SRN CANADA.

SCHICHTEL




$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.