Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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673
FXUS02 KWBC 220433
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1132 PM EST SAT JAN 21 2017

VALID 12Z WED JAN 25 2017 - 12Z SUN JAN 29 2017

UPPER RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WILL RULE THE CONUS LATER THIS WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH SUPPORTS A DRIER/COOLER PATTERN OVERALL.
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW GOOD CLUSTERING OF SOLUTIONS ALONG THE
LINES OF ONGOING WPC CONTINUITY. THE 12Z CANADIAN AND ITS
ENSEMBLES LAGGED BEHIND THE UKMET/ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES WITH THE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE
GFS/GEFS MEMBERS WERE QUICKER. FAVORED A SOLUTION NEARER TO THE
ECMWF/UKMET/CONTINUITY WED/THU BEFORE THE GFS CAME BACK INTO
CONSENSUS OVERALL. ONCE THAT SYSTEM LIFTS INTO CANADA, ITS
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST AND EVENTUALLY
INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS, THOUGH TIMING IS STILL UNCLEAR. SOME
MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE OVER TEXAS ACROSS THE GULF INTO FLORIDA
NEXT WEEKEND WELL NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. OTHERWISE,
COLD/DRY NW FLOW SHOULD PRIMARILY SUPPORT LOCALIZED LAKE-EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TOWARD AVERAGE
VALUES FOR LATE JANUARY IN THE EAST AND STAY NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE
IN THE WEST UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE (BUT RATHER STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE).


FRACASSO

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