Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS02 KWBC 240428
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1128 PM EST MON JAN 23 2017

VALID 12Z FRI JAN 27 2017 - 12Z TUE JAN 31 2017

CONTINUED QUIET PATTERN FOR THE CONUS AS A CONTINENTAL POLAR
AIRMASS SLIDES INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WHILE COLD
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED IN THE WEST. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LIMITED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW, THROUGH THE GULF FROM TEXAS INTO
FLORIDA NORTH OF A STALLED FRONT, AND OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
WA/OR. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP OVER FLORIDA DURING THE
PERIOD AS A CLIPPER TO THE NORTH SQUEEZES INCREASED MOISTURE
ACROSS THE PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
STAY NEAR/BELOW AVERAGE IN THE WEST AND SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC
WHILE THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD STAY ABOVE
AVERAGE THANKS TO ENOUGH PACIFIC AIRMASS INFLUENCE FROM THE WEST.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW ABOVE AVERAGE AGREEMENT WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN BUT DID TREND TOWARD MAINTAINING A MORE
DEFINED SHORTWAVE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE IN THE WEST SUN/MON (ECMWF
HAD HINTED AT THIS FOR A COUPLE DAYS). OTHERWISE, A
MULTI-MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS WAS SUFFICIENT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
UNCLEAR AFTER THAT HOW THE PATTERN EVOLVES IN THE EAST -- BOTH
WITH THE DEPARTING NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER AND THE SUBSEQUENT
PACIFIC FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS.


FRACASSO

$$





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