Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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067
FXUS02 KWBC 051409
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
908 AM EST FRI FEB 05 2016

VALID 12Z MON FEB 08 2016 - 12Z FRI FEB 12 2016

...SNOW THREAT FOR THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...

GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL SLOWLY EASE THROUGH NEXT WEEK BUT REMAIN IN
A RIDGE/TROUGH ORIENTATION ACROSS THE WEST/EAST. RECENT GUIDANCE
SHOWS DECENT CLUSTERING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND A
COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z ECMWF/06Z GFS WAS USED AS A STARTING POINT.
ACTIVITY WILL BE CENTERED MOSTLY IN THE GREAT
LAKES/MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST AS A COLD UPPER LOW SWINGS THROUGH
THE REGION, INDUCING A MILLER-B TYPE CYCLOGENESIS -- WITH NEW SFC
LOW DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE DELMARVA BY TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE DEEPENING AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. HIGH PRESSURE
AND THEN A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. THE
WEST WILL REMAIN RATHER QUIET UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD ALLOWING A FRONT TO REACH THE WA/OR
COAST.


SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
WEST:  STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROMOTE WARM AND DRY CONDS AT
MOST LOCATIONS --  PLUS 5-15F OR SLIGHTLY GREATER ANOMALIES.
INTERIOR VALLEYS IN NV/UT/CO MAY NOT BREAK THROUGH LOCAL
INVERSIONS TO PARTAKE IN SAID "WARMTH" (RELATIVE). RECORD HIGHS
AND RECORD HIGH MINIMA BOTH APPEAR POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY ACROSS CALIFORNIA.

NORTH/PLAINS/GREAT LAKES: AN EAST-WEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DUE TO
THE UPPER FLOW, WITH DOWNSLOPING AND RELATIVE WARMTH IN MT
TRENDING TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES UNDER THE TROUGHING.
RECORD HIGH MINIMA REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE DAKOTAS ON
SUNDAY.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SEVERAL DAYS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW, ESPECIALLY FOR THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN AND WESTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN.

SOUTHEAST: TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE (ABOUT 5-15F BELOW
AVERAGE) TRENDING BACK TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY BY THE END OF THE WEEK,
BUT WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION OUTSIDE THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

EAST: THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS OVER PARTS
OF THE MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST WITH THE MON NIGHT-WED SYSTEM. THESE
TYPE OF SYSTEMS INHERENTLY HAVE LOWER PREDICTABILITY ON THEIR SW
SIDES -- I.E., D.C. METRO AREA -- AND RECENT VERIFICATION OF EAST
COAST SYSTEMS HAS SHOWN THAT PRECIP EDGES HAVE NOT BEEN
WELL-PREDICTED (ESPECIALLY N/NW SIDE). ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS OF
GREAT VALUE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND AMPLIFIED PATTERNS CAN BRING
SURPRISES. NONETHELESS, ANOTHER SNOW THREAT WILL REMAIN IN PLAY
FROM VA/MD TO MAINE NEXT TUE/WED.

ROTH/FRACASSO
$$





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