Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS02 KWBC 040546
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1246 AM EST WED MAR 04 2015

VALID 12Z SAT MAR 07 2015 - 12Z WED MAR 11 2015

...GUIDANCE/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...

WPC MEDIUM-RANGE PRODUCTS WERE DERIVED FROM A COMPOSITE BLEND OF
THE 18 UTC GEFS MEAN AND 12 UTC ECMWF/NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ALONG
WITH CONTINUITY. THIS SOLUTION OFFERS BETTER THAN AVERAGE
MID-LARGER SCALE PREDICTABILITY AND MAINTAINS EXCELLENT WPC
CONTINUITY. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. HOWEVER...AN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST
APPROACH ACTS TO MITIGATE SMALL SCALE SYSTEM VARIANCE SHOWN MORE
IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS.

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

THE RECENT ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE BENIGN/DRY
FOR MUCH OF THE NATION DURING MEDIUM RANGE TIME SCALES. THE WPC
SOLUTION DOES OFFER SOME NRN STREAM SNOWS CLIPPING THE N-CENTRAL
TO NERN US AS IMPULSES PASS ALOFT IN A MODESTLY AMPLIFIED MEAN
TROUGH...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. UNDERNEATH...ONE AREA BEING
MONITORED FOR HEAVIER PCPN POTENTIAL IS ALONG AND INLAND FROM THE
GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST WHERE THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD OVER
THE NWD EXTENT OF RNFL. LOW PREDICTABILITY OF IMPORTANT SHRTWV
DETAILS TEMPERS CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICS...AND LATEST TRENDS SHOW A
LESS ROBUST MOISTURE/PCPN REBOUND. OVER THE WEST...GUIDANCE HAS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND ONLY GRUDINGLY WORKS THE ERN
PERIPHERY OF AN ERN PAC MSTR SHIELD TOWARD THE WEST COAST
EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK. THIS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION IS WELL SUPPORTED BY
UPSTREAM PAC WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

SCHICHTEL

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