Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS02 KWBC 011539
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1138 AM EDT WED JUL 01 2015

VALID 12Z SAT JUL 04 2015 - 12Z WED JUL 08 2015

WPC MEDIUM RANGE DAYS 3-7 SURFACE FRONTS/PRESSURE AND 500 MB PROGS
HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A COMPOSITE BLEND OF QUITE
COMPATABLE GUIDANCE FROM THE 06 UTC GEFS MEAN AND 00 UTC
NAEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE OVERALL FLOW OFFERS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL PATTERN  PREDICTABILITY...BUT DECIDED TO EXCLUDE
DETERMINISTIC MODEL INPUT INTO THE SOLUTION TODAY AFTER
CONSIDERATION OF RUN TO RUN SYSTEM VARIANCE.

A MEAN MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POSITION WITH NUMEROUS EMBEDDED
VORTS OVER MID-LATITUDES FROM THE CENTRAL TO ERN US THROUGH THE
WEEKEND SHOULD PROMOTE A LINGERING WAVY FRONT CENTERED AROUND
35-40N. THIS SHOULD FOCUS A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR REPEAT HEAVY
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. EXPECT MUCH MORE LIMITED WARM
SECTOR SRN US CONVECTION UNDERNEATH. MOISTURE INFLUX SHOULD ALSO
FUEL PERIODS OF MONSOONAL CONVECTION SPREAD AROUND A MEAN RIDGE
ACROSS THE SW US AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES IN THIS PATTERN.

MEANWHILE...AN AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS GRADUALLY
ESEWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL CANADA THIS WEEKEND TO S-CENTRAL
CANADA/N-CENTRAL US EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL
REMAIN IN CANADA...BUT TRANSLATION SHOULD DRIVE A COOLING AND
CONVECTION FOCUSING ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM UNDERNEATH THOUGH
THE N-CENTRAL US THROUGH ERN US WHILE ACTING TO PULL MOISTURE AND
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE AND LEADING MID-LATITUDE FRONTAL FOCUS
SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.

SCHICHTEL




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