Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS02 KWBC 311539
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1139 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

VALID 12Z SUN AUG 03 2014 - 12Z THU AUG 07 2014


AFTER FILLING AND DEAMPLIFYING, THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL BEGIN BUCKLING
AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE SINCE JULY
1, THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS WONT TO SET UP IN THE EAST AND THE RIDGE
IN THE WEST. ANY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE 00Z/31 DATA CYCLE
TELL THE TALE SUFFICIENTLY, THOUGH THERE IS ENOUGH SPREAD IN
SYNOPTIC DETAIL AMONG THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS TO ADD A CAVEAT
EMPTOR ABOUT THEIR WHOLESALE INCORPORATION.

THE FLOW WILL REMAIN SPLIT FOR THE NEXT WEEK, SO
SYNOPTICALLY-FORCED RAINFALL WILL TEND TO FALL INTO ZONAL STRIPES
EAST OF THE ROCKIES. WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, THE MONSOON
SHOULD FUEL RAINFALL PATTERNS TIED STRONGLY TO THE TERRAIN.
WESTERN CALIFORNIA AND EASTERN WASHINGTON CONTINUE TO LOOK DRY.


CISCO

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