Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS02 KWBC 061558
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1057 AM EST SAT FEB 06 2016

VALID 12Z TUE FEB 09 2016 - 12Z SAT FEB 13 2016

...SNOW REMAINS A POSSIBILITY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...


GENERAL FLOW PATTERN...

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW OVER THE CONUS AT THE START OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK BUT SHOULD
STILL FEATURE MEAN RIDGING IN THE WEST AND TROUGHING IN THE EAST.
WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW...A SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OFF
THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL LIFT UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON TUESDAY AND THEN THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO A POTENTIAL CLIPPER
SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER IN THE WEEK.  THE
WEST WILL REMAIN RATHER QUIET UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN THE RIDGE
SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST TOWARDS THE DIVIDE AND AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
PROGRESSING INLAND.


SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

WEST:  GENERALLY WARM (OR AT LEAST ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES) AND
DRY CONDS AT MOST LOCATIONS -- PLUS 5-15F OR SLIGHTLY GREATER
ANOMALIES. INTERIOR VALLEYS IN NV/UT/CO MAY NOT BREAK THROUGH
LOCAL INVERSIONS TO PARTAKE IN SAID "WARMTH" (RELATIVE). RECORD
HIGHS AND RECORD HIGH MINIMA BOTH APPEAR POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY ACROSS CALIFORNIA. PRECIPITATION -- ALBEIT LIGHT --
SHOULD PUSH INLAND STARTING WEDNESDAY OVER COASTAL WA/OR AS A
COUPLE WEAKENING FRONTS PUSH ASHORE. MORE APPRECIABLE BUT STILL
MODEST AMOUNTS OF PRECIP SHOULD FALL OVER WA/OR FRI INTO SATURDAY.

NORTH/PLAINS/GREAT LAKES: AN EAST-WEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DUE TO
THE UPPER FLOW, WITH DOWNSLOPING AND RELATIVE WARMTH IN MT
TRENDING TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES UNDER THE TROUGHING.
CYCLONIC FLOW IN CONCERT WITH THE CLIPPER PASSAGE WILL MAINTAIN
SEVERAL DAYS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW, ESPECIALLY FOR THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN AND WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

SOUTHEAST: TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE (BY ABOUT 5-15F AND
EVEN 20F EARLY IN THE WEEK) BUT WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION OUTSIDE
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO SATURDAY.

EAST: THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWS
OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST WITH
THE TUE-WED SYSTEM. COMPLICATED UPPER/SFC PATTERN EVOLUTION LOWERS
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION AND P-TYPE DETAILS. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND COLDER WITH TIME, ENHANCED BY THE ARCTIC FRONT LATER IN THE
WEEK.


GERHARDT

$$




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