Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS02 KWBC 020701
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 AM EST MON MAR 02 2015

VALID 12Z THU MAR 05 2015 - 12Z MON MAR 09 2015

...GUIDANCE ASSESSMENT AND PATTERN/SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

THE WPC MEDIUM-RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A
COMPOSITE MODEL BLEND OF THE 18 UTC GFS AND 12 UTC
ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN INTO THU/FRI BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A
COMPOSITE BLEND THE 18 UTC GEFS MEAN AND 12 UTC ECMWF/NAEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS OUT TO DAY 7/NEXT MON IN A PERIOD WITH MARGINALLY
INCREASED FORECAST SPREAD. THIS PATTERN SEEMS TO OFFER AVERAGE OR
BETTER PREDICTABILITY.

THE LAST IN A RECENT SERIES OF STORMY WINTER WEATHER FEATURES IS
QUICKLY TRANSFERING INTO SHORT RANGE TIME SCALES AND WPC
PRODUCTS...BUT LINGERING FRONTAL WAVE FOCUS SHOULD PROLONG AMPLE
WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL CENTERING OVER THE COOLING MID-ATLANTIC
INTO THU ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A POST-FRONTAL ARCTIC SURGE SPREAD
FAR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FROSTY NATION.

A TRANSITION TO AN ENSEMBLE FORECAST APPROACH SHOULD WORK WELL
LATER ON AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE BENIGN/DRY FOR MUCH OF THE
NATION. HOWEVER...THE 12 UTC ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLES DO REBOUND
MOISTURE AND PCPN MORE ROBUSTLY INLAND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES/SERN US THAN THE REST OF GUIDANCE INTO DAY 7 NEXT MON. A
COMPOSITE BLEND ALLOWS POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE REBOUND CONSISTENT
WITH A LARGER SCALE FLOW PATTERN WITH SOME ROOM FOR AMPLIFICATION
ALOFT AND SURFACE RESPONSE.

SCHICHTEL

$$




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