Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS02 KWBC 240436
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1135 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

VALID 12Z THU NOV 27 2014 - 12Z MON DEC 01 2014


...WEST COAST GETS WET...

RELIED MOSTLY ON THE VERY STABLE ECENS MEAN AS A SYNOPTIC GUIDE
ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AT THE MEDIUM RANGE--WITH A SMALL
INCORPORATION OF THE LARGELY COMPATIBLE 18Z/23 GEFS MEAN FOR DAYS
4 THROUGH 7 IN THE TEMPERATURE/POP BLEND TO BLUNT SOME OF THE
BIASES IN THE ECENS MEAN (EVERY MODEL HAS SOME BIAS). THE BIG
MESSAGE IS THE RELAXING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TRANSPORT OF
CONTINENTAL POLAR AND ARCTIC AIR INTO THE EASTERN STATES AND A
PUSH OF ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NATION FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN. BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD, THE ENTIRE WEST COAST--RIGHT DOWN TO SAN
DIEGO--SHOULD BE IN GENTLY CYCLONIC, ONSHORE FLOW. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD FOCUS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, BUT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA MAKES SOME DENT IN THE DROUGHT
VIA THIS PATTERN VARIATION.


CISCO

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