Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS02 KWBC 210453
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1253 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VALID 12Z FRI OCT 24 2014 - 12Z TUE OCT 28 2014


THE ENSEMBLE MEANS OFFER THE BEST CONTINUITY THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND SIDESTEP SOME OF THE MORE PROBLEMATIC EXTREMES OFFERED BY THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS. THE STAKES ARE HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA
WHERE THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE POLAR WESTERLIES AND THE
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EMERGING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA REMAINS UNCLEAR.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A LARGE VORTEX NEAR CAPE COD AND A CLOSED
SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. THE NEW ENGLAND LOW
SHOULD KEEP CHILLY RAINS FEEDING INTO THE STATES THAT BORDER
CANADA FOR THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS. THE SOUTHWESTERN RIDGE COULD
PRODUCE ONE-HUNDRED-DEGREE READINGS ON THE LOW DESERTS OF
CALIFORNIA AND ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COLORADO RIVER IN ARIZONA.
BY MID PERIOD, A PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE BODILY
INTO THE WEST, URGING THE DOWNSTREAM FEATURES INTO NEW
CONFIGURATIONS. THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES
AT THE START OF THE FORECAST SEEMS DESTINED TO DIG INTO FLORIDA
AND THE BAHAMAS, PERHAPS KEEPING THE TROPICAL LOW AT BAY SOUTH OF
CUBA. THERE ARE STILL OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS THAT PULL THE LOW
TOWARD FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST.

BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW SHOULD SEND HEIGHTS
RISING OVER THE NORTHEAST, WITH A BROAD SWATH OF WESTERLIES FROM
THE PACIFIC COAST TO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS STRETCH OF FLOW LOOKS
NOISY WITH SHORTWAVES, AND IS LIKELY TO BE HANDLED DISPARATELY BY
THE MODELS IN UPCOMING DATA CYCLES.


CISCO

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