Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 262212
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
412 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER WITH A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS EAST OF THE EL
PASO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AND
MONDAY. DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A GENERALLY DRY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW OCCURRING OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL MEAN A WARM UP
IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WILL BE SOME
INTRUSIONS OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST
SURGE WILL OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY WHEN A MODEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF HUDSPETH AND OTERO COUNTY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THOSE AREAS. RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY. THESE STORMS MAY BE
HIGH BASED WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
THE MOISTURE RETREATS BACK TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S FOR THE LOWLANDS WITH WESTERLY BREEZES
IN THE AFTERNOON.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
MOISTURE FILLING IN BEHIND IT. THIS WILL SET OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF
MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO LEAVE
THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE STATE...ALLOWING
THE MOISTURE TO LINGER. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 27/12Z-28/12Z...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES WITH SW TO W WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 20
KNOTS THRU PRD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEST FLOW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING WARMER...DRIER AND BREEZY WEATHER TO
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE FAR EASTERN FIRE
WEATHER ZONES WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST PASSES NORTH OF THE
BORDERLAND. DRIER WARM WEATHER WILL FOLLOW ON FRIDAY BEFORE A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG SURGE OF MOISTURE TRIES
TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. SOME OF THESE WEEKEND STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. RH VALUES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL CERTAINLY MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA. MIN RH VALUES
TODAY WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS FOR ALL FIRE WEATHER
ZONES EXPECT THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ZONE WERE MIN RH VALUES WILL
BEGIN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. TOMORROW MIN RH VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE REGION AND LOWER TO MID TEENS
ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. VENT RATES WILL BE EXCELLENT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 62  93  65  92  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           57  91  59  89  58 /   0  10  20  20  10
LAS CRUCES              55  91  56  90  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              57  92  59  90  58 /   0   0  20  20   0
CLOUDCROFT              44  72  46  70  47 /   0   0  20  40  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   56  89  57  89  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             49  82  50  81  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  51  91  52  90  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               52  90  51  88  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      63  91  64  91  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               56  92  59  90  58 /   0  10  20  20  10
FORT HANCOCK            59  95  62  92  60 /   0   0  10  10   0
LOMA LINDA              59  87  60  86  59 /   0   0  10   0   0
FABENS                  58  94  61  92  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            58  92  59  91  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          59  91  61  89  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           53  91  55  90  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   53  91  55  90  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                56  89  58  89  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               59  91  61  90  61 /   0   0  10   0   0
MAYHILL                 50  78  52  76  52 /   0  10  20  40  20
MESCALERO               48  79  49  77  49 /   0   0  20  40  20
TIMBERON                49  78  50  76  51 /   0   0  20  30  10
WINSTON                 48  80  48  81  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               51  88  52  88  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               52  91  54  90  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            46  81  47  81  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  48  83  48  83  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   46  88  47  87  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              42  85  42  85  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 51  85  51  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  53  89  53  89  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 51  91  52  90  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          49  90  51  89  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              50  85  50  84  52 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/28




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