Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 242134
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
334 PM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Large upper low persists over the Great Basin today, resulting in
continued southerly flow and some tropical moisture moving to the
area. As of early this morning the moisture plume was situated
just east of Hudspeth County. The moisture will drift back west
Monday for a chance of thunderstorms over Hudspeth and eastern
Otero Counties. A cool front moves west into the area Tuesday for
an extended period of low level gusty east winds. This will spread
moisture over the entire area, with scattered thunderstorms
Tuesday through at least Friday. A few of these storms could
become severe with large hail and damaging winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models all in pretty good agreement with the overall weather
pattern for the next week. Upper trough persisting over the Great
Basin, with main low over northern Utah. This low will lift
northward over night with new closed low forming over western
Arizona Tuesday. In the short term, satellite imagery showing
tropical plume feeding off of TS Pilar now well east of the area.
Models have been consistent though in slowly drawing the plume
back west over the next several days. Slight risk of a
thunderstorm far eastern Hudspeth tonight but looking at the
location of the plume that may be a reach now.

Monday...should be mostly dry except for the far eastern CWA where
some moisture will work back west for a slight chance of
thunderstorms.

Tuesday through Friday...models have consistent in showing back
door front moving in Tuesday morning. This will advect low level
moisture into the entire CWA. In fact you could even call it a low
level jet. GFS showing winds through this period mostly in the
10-25 mph, and gusts to 35-40 mph possible along west slopes of
terrain. Good convective environment, especially Wed-Fri with
good speed and directional shear, and MUCAPES of around 500-1000
J/kg. So it would not surprise if a few of these storms became
severe with large hail and damaging winds. Again Wed-Fri looks to
be the prime period for heavy rain and possible severe storms.
With the added clouds/precip, temperatures will be held to below
normal most of these days.

Saturday and Sunday...The long wave trough gradually becomes
positively tilted and eventually moves through as the closed low
lifts off to the northern Plains. ECMWF shows trough passing
through CWA mid day Saturday with clearing skies. GFS does not
show the trough passage and clearing until mid day Sunday. For now
went with GFS solution, though it is day 7 of the forecast and
plenty of time to change.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 25/00Z-26/00Z...
The moisture plume from Mexico has slid east as forecast bringing
drier air into all the areas with the exception of SE Hudspeth
Country where cloudiness will linger along with the risk of some
rain showers and a few thunderstorms into Monday (BKN030 3SM TSRA
WND GUST 35KTS). Otherwise skies SKC TO SCT060-100. Winds WSW - NW
8 G 17 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Westerly winds aloft have pushed yesterday`s moisture (mainly east
of the Rio Grande) farther east and thus will bring dry conditions
to all areas except SE Hudspeth county. Drier air will persist over
SW New Mexico again Monday and most of Tuesday mainly west of the
rio Grande. Temperatures will slowly trend down and will be at or
below normal for the week ahead. A backdoor cold front will bring
cooler temperatures and more widespread precipitation with some
possibly heavy with a flooding risk starting Wednesday into the
rest of the week for all areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 65  87  62  83 /   0   0   0  10
Sierra Blanca           62  85  60  79 /  20  20  20  20
Las Cruces              57  84  56  81 /   0   0   0  10
Alamogordo              58  85  56  81 /   0   0  10  30
Cloudcroft              46  65  40  60 /   0   0  30  50
Truth or Consequences   52  84  54  80 /   0   0   0  10
Silver City             48  79  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  50  84  52  81 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               48  81  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      64  85  63  82 /   0   0   0  10
Dell City               64  86  59  79 /  20  10  30  30
Fort Hancock            67  88  61  84 /  10   0  10  20
Loma Linda              62  85  60  78 /  10   0  10  20
Fabens                  66  87  61  83 /   0   0   0  20
Santa Teresa            60  85  60  82 /   0   0   0  10
White Sands HQ          58  85  59  80 /   0   0   0  10
Jornada Range           52  85  54  81 /   0   0   0  10
Hatch                   52  85  55  82 /   0   0   0  10
Columbus                52  85  55  82 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               60  86  59  80 /   0   0   0  10
Mayhill                 51  73  47  67 /  10   0  30  60
Mescalero               50  75  46  70 /   0   0  20  40
Timberon                51  74  46  68 /  10   0  30  40
Winston                 44  81  44  76 /   0   0   0  10
Hillsboro               50  84  52  79 /   0   0   0  10
Spaceport               50  83  52  80 /   0   0   0  10
Lake Roberts            42  80  43  77 /   0   0   0  10
Hurley                  48  81  49  78 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   40  81  40  80 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              39  80  42  78 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 49  83  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  47  82  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 48  83  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          48  85  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              48  82  52  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Hefner/Novlan


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