Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 180923
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
323 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL LEAD
TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER INCH...BUT SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE A
HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY SEEING THEIR
FIRST 90 DEGREE READING BY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH UPPER LOW/TROUGH
CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE FAR SOUTHERN CA COAST AND PRECIP CHANCES
OVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. DEW POINTS ABOUT 20-25 DEGREES HIGHER
OVER EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF CWA COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME
AS EAST WINDS HAVE KICKED IN. SHOULD SEE THEM CONTINUE TO RISE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH SOME AREAS NEARING 40 BY 12Z. WINDS
WILL BE SHIFTING AROUND TO THE WSW OVER WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND BRING IN SOME BAJA MOISTURE. MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY FOR THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR WEST AND FAR EAST WITH
FIRST OF SEVERAL DISTURBANCES FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH OVER THE
NEXT 36-48 HRS BEFORE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MOVES EAST OF AREA. KEPT
POPS CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAD GOING...BUT DID EXTEND A LITTLE FURTHER
WEST INTO EASTERN EL PASO COUNTY WHERE BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE
SETS UP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR PSEUDO DRYLINE. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
ALREADY IN AREA AND SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL
KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80. INCREASED POPS TO AT
LEAST 20 PERCENT FOR ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH 30 POPS FAR EAST AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED WITH CONTINUED
BKN-OVC CLOUD DECK KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S.

DECENT INSTABILITY FORECAST BY MODELS FOR SAT ACROSS REGION WITH
LI`S AROUND -2C. SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT...BEST IN
THE EAST DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME SPEED
SHEAR ABOVE H70. LOW WBZ HEIGHTS FORECAST SO COULD SEE SOME
MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS BUT DO NOT EXPECT
ANYTHING WIDESPREAD. AGAIN HAVE HIGHEST POPS SAT EAST OF RIO
GRANDE AND MOUNTAINS AND ISOLD POPS SW. GIVEN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
AROUND THROUGH THE DAY...WENT TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE
TEMPS IF NOT BELOW. KEPT POPS GOING OVER EAST INTO SAT EVE AND
THEN JUST SACS AFT 06Z. MODELS CONTINUING TO SLOW PROGRESSION OF
THIS TROUGH THROUGH AREA SO LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO KEEP MENTION
IN AT LEAST EASTERN CWA INTO POSSIBLY SUN MORNING.

UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S WITH SOME
AREAS GETTING THEIR FIRST 90 DEGREE READINGS TUE. ANOTHER UPPER
LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW LATE TUE/WED AND BORDERLAND
WILL NOT FEEL ANY AFFECTS PRECIP WISE WITH THIS...BUT WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME TUE AND ESPECIALLY WED-THU WHEN MOST CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS WED AGAIN 80S TO NEAR 90
WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AS TROUGH PASSES THU. MEX GUIDANCE TRYING
TO SHOW BIG COOL DOWN FOR AREA FRI ON BACK SIDE OF TROUGH...BUT
WITH RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDING BACK IN AND WINDS S TO SW...DO NOT SEE
MUCH IF ANY COOL DOWN EXPECTED...SO WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES.



&&

.AVIATION...VALID 18/12Z-19/12Z.
FROM 12Z-18Z...BKN-OVC200-250 WITH ESE WINDS 8-15KTS. AFT 18Z SCT-
BKN100-120 BKN-OVC200-250 WITH ISOLD TO SCT 5SM -TSRA BKN040-050
WITH STRONGEST STORMS POSSIBLY HAVING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40KTS ALONG WITH MVFR CONDS. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE S TO SW
10-15KTS THIS AFTN AND BECOME VARIABLE UNDER 10KTS AFT 02Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM BOTH THE
SOUTHEAST AND BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE SOUTHWEST. ISOLATED STORMS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FAR SW NM...HUDSPETH AND EASTERN OTERO
COUNTIES. A FEW DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY IN. CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MUCH HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S WITH
SOME LOW 90S POSSIBLE. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WINDS INCREASE TO 20-35 MPH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 80  61  75  56  82 /  10  20  30  20   0
SIERRA BLANCA           78  54  73  50  78 /  20  30  40  30   0
LAS CRUCES              78  56  74  50  80 /   0  20  20  20   0
ALAMOGORDO              77  57  73  49  76 /   0  20  30  30   0
CLOUDCROFT              55  44  52  42  58 /  10  30  40  30  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   74  54  72  52  75 /  10  20  20  30   0
SILVER CITY             70  48  68  46  72 /  20  30  30  30   0
DEMING                  77  53  75  49  80 /  10  20  20  20   0
LORDSBURG               72  52  74  49  79 /  10  20  20  10   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      81  60  75  54  81 /   0  20  30  20   0
DELL CITY               80  54  74  45  82 /  10  30  40  30   0
FORT HANCOCK            81  58  77  55  84 /  10  30  30  30   0
LOMA LINDA              74  55  71  46  72 /  10  30  40  30   0
FABENS                  80  57  76  51  83 /  10  30  30  30   0
SANTA TERESA            79  56  74  50  80 /   0  20  20  20   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          79  57  75  55  81 /   0  20  20  30   0
JORNADA RANGE           78  48  74  44  79 /   0  20  20  30   0
HATCH                   77  51  74  44  79 /   0  20  20  20   0
COLUMBUS                77  56  75  53  80 /   0  20  20  20   0
OROGRANDE               78  56  76  53  79 /  10  20  30  30   0
MAYHILL                 66  49  61  45  67 /  20  30  50  30  20
MESCALERO               68  49  63  40  68 /  20  30  50  30  20
TIMBERON                67  46  61  42  66 /  10  30  40  30  20
WINSTON                 68  49  68  43  69 /  20  30  40  30  10
HILLSBORO               71  54  70  49  73 /  10  20  30  30   0
SPACEPORT               73  51  73  49  76 /   0  20  20  30   0
LAKE ROBERTS            62  45  59  39  68 /  20  30  40  30  10
HURLEY                  71  50  70  45  74 /  20  20  30  20   0
CLIFF                   70  46  69  40  75 /  20  30  30  20   0
MULE CREEK              70  44  67  37  75 /  20  30  30  20   0
FAYWOOD                 70  51  69  45  75 /  20  20  30  30   0
ANIMAS                  71  53  74  49  80 /  10  20  20   0   0
HACHITA                 72  51  76  48  79 /  10  20  20  10   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          74  54  74  50  80 /  10  20  20   0   0
CLOVERDALE              71  50  72  44  72 /  20  20  20   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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