000
FXUS64 KEPZ 200851
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
251 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON. NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY PENETRATE WESTWARD THROUGH HUDSPETH AND EASTERN OTERO
COUNTIES FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES ALL
AREAS WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS STATES WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND ITS BASE AND ADDING
TO THE SEVERE WEATHER WOES IN THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
ONE LAST SHORT WAVE WILL SWING AROUND THROUGH NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT...WHICH FOR THE BORDERLAND MEANS BREEZY TO LOW END WINDY
AND VERY DRY TODAY...RESULTING IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. SLIGHT COOLING WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY...BUT AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND END UP CENTERED OVER THE
PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING BACK THE HEAT FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY.

THE AXIS AND ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE ALONG WITH A PACIFIC COAST
TROUGH WILL PLACE US UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE DRYLINE WILL
BEGIN A DAILY SLOSHING WESTWARD ACROSS WEST TEXAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND RETREAT EASTWARD
DURING THE DAY. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST OVERNIGHT AND HOW FAR
EAST WILL THE DAILY RETREAT BE? THIS WILL BE CRUCIAL TO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. FOR NOW WILL
STICK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BOOMERS STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN
HUDSPETH AND EASTERN OTERO COUNTIES AND CONTINUING DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THIS IS
A COMPROMISE SOLUTION BETWEEN THE GFS MODEL WHICH ADDS EL PASO AND
EASTERN DONA ANA COUNTY TO THE MIX...AND THE ECM WHICH HARDLY
TOUCHES HUDSPETH COUNTY WITH THUNDERSTORMS. YOU`LL WANT TO STAY
TUNED ON THIS ONE.

&&

.AVIATION...20/12Z-21/12Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. WEST WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KNOTS AFT 03Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
TODAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN THIS EVENING. INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO LOW-END RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...
MAINLY IN A BELT EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN GILA REGION INTO
SOUTHERN OTERO COUNTY. WINDS MAY STAY JUST SHY OF CRITERIA IN
SIERRA/EL PASO/HUDSPETH COUNTIES. ALSO DUE TO TERRAIN
EFFECTS...WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER IN THE UPPER TULAROSA BASIN
EXCEPT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SAN ANDRES RANGE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY...BUT TEMPS WILL VERY QUICKLY
REBOUND BACK TO THE 90S FOR THE LOWLANDS ON WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 90  67  88  65  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           90  59  85  58  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              87  55  85  57  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              85  54  85  55  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              64  40  61  40  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   84  58  84  58  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             79  50  82  51  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  85  52  86  53  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               83  51  86  53  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      88  64  85  64  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               85  52  86  54  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            91  62  90  59  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              79  55  78  54  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  90  64  87  61  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            88  59  85  59  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          87  64  85  62  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           86  47  85  47  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   83  58  81  56  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                86  58  86  59  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               88  55  88  54  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 73  46  72  48  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               72  41  73  42  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                72  39  72  42  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 74  45  75  48  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               78  53  81  52  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               82  55  83  51  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            74  45  77  45  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  79  51  80  55  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   83  47  87  46  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              78  37  83  37  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 81  51  80  53  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  85  53  86  57  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 84  53  85  51  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          86  55  87  59  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              81  50  82  54  86 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     NMZ113.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NMZ110>112.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ055-056.

&&

$$

01 FAUSETT