Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 261024
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
424 AM MDT Fri May 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Much like yesterday we will see windy conditions today with some
patch blowing dust. Things will continue to be warm on Saturday
and Sunday, but we will be much calmer. Then starting Memorial
Day, moisture and rain chances return to the forecast and we will
see the chance for rain continue through at least the middle of
next week. Our slightly above normal temperatures this weekend
will go slightly below normal for the first of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Well the winds and dust underperformed yesterday thanks to some
pretty thick high clouds. For today we will have less clouds, but
we also will have a little less pressure gradient, so we will see
another windy day, but right now it looks like we will stay just
below wind advisory levels (25 to 35 mph). With more sun in the
afternoon we may say a little more dust, but I don`t think it will
be a wide spread problem. Temperatures today will continue to run
about 4 to 5 degrees above average. The start of the holiday
weekend is still looking great, we will see slightly above average
high temperatures with plenty of sun. It may get a little breezy
in the afternoon, but not to bad.

Late on Sunday, upper level high pressure at the surface will
build south into the Midwest and the circulation around the high
will begin to push gulf moisture into our area. By Monday we will
have enough moisture in place to need a chance for rain in the
forecast. As a matter of fact, the moisture stream will continue
through at least Wednesday so we will continue to see a chance for
rain most of next week. With the clouds and moisture in place
across the area, this will limit our solar heating, so our
afternoon high temperatures will be a few degrees below average.
The extended models have a difference in opinion on whether our
rain chances will continue through the end of the week. The GFS
brings a short wave across the area on next Thursday and sweeps
all the moisture and rain chances off to the east, while the ECMWF
closes off a little low over New Mexico and then kind of stalls
it out there, which continues our rain chances into next weekend.
For now I`m leaning more toward the drier GFS solution and start
to dry things out for us for the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 26/12Z-27/12Z
We will see VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Much like
yesterday we will have windy conditions this afternoon. We could
see some blowing dust, but I don`t think it will restrict
visibility much. Unlike yesterday, we will have unlimited ceilings
for most of the day. We may still see an occasional ceiling of
BKN250, but it won`t last long. Winds should start to slow down by
sunset.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Much likely yesterday, today we will see more critical fire
weather conditions. By the afternoon we will have another round of
strong westerly winds. At the same time we will have very dry min
RH`s in the single digits across the area. Both these factors will
create critical fire weather conditions, so a Red Flag Warning is
in place for today. After today, fire weather conditions will be
less of a concern. For Saturday and Sunday we will continue to see
very dry single digit RH`s, but winds really won`t be that strong.
Then late on Sunday our surface winds will swing around to the
southeast and we will see gulf moisture begin to flow into the
region. This moisture will help fuel rain chances for Monday
through at least Thursday of the coming week. At the same time we
will see min RH`s above critical levels and our high temperatures
will run a few degrees below normal for much of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 94  68  94  64 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           93  67  93  62 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              90  58  91  58 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              90  56  90  58 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              66  42  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   88  57  91  58 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             81  50  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  89  55  90  54 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               88  55  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      90  67  91  64 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               97  62  96  61 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            97  70  96  64 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              88  64  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  95  69  94  64 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            91  62  92  61 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          90  64  91  61 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           88  55  91  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   91  56  93  56 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                91  57  92  57 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               90  63  91  61 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 77  53  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               75  47  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                74  46  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 78  41  83  46 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               86  50  89  53 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               90  51  92  55 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            78  40  81  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  81  45  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   86  48  87  50 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              82  51  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 84  49  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  90  54  90  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 89  54  91  54 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          88  55  91  55 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              83  55  85  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     NMZ110>113.

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     TXZ055-056.

&&

$$

Brice


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