Area Forecast Discussion
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046
FXUS64 KEPZ 280935
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
335 AM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper disturbance passing nearby will bring a chance of showers
and thunderstorms today into this evening, with temperatures below
normal for this time of year. Afternoon temperatures will return
to normal by Thursday as thunderstorm coverage decreases somewhat.
However, that same upper disturbance may make a comeback Friday
and Saturday for another increase in thunderstorms. This will
delay above normal temperatures a couple of days until Sunday and
Independence Day, when storm coverage will decrease again.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
I come back from a day off only to find that the models have
changed their tune for late this week into the weekend. It`s
actually good news because it delays our return to hot
temperatures and brings another decent chance for rain if it
verifies.

Most of the above is related to the behavior of a weak upper low
passing to our south initially, then stalling to our southwest
before returning and lifting out right over the Borderland Friday
& Saturday. This also nudges the upper high further east instead
of it settling overhead. This will result in a couple of days of
decent moisture and increased thunderstorm coverage, namely
Thursday night into Saturday.

But let`s not forget the initial impact of that feature, which
would be scattered to possibly numerous showers and storms today.
In fact, showers are already spreading westward into our eastern
section (mainly Hudspeth County) very early this morning. If cloud
cover and showers take place too early today (mainly eastern
portion) this could reduce surface heating and instability,
resulting in storms that are not too strong --- a good thing. The
same could be said for west of the divide due to "convective
debris" from a the leftovers of a large MCS over Sonora overnight.
But areas that receive plenty of solar insolation later today
could be in for an active thunderstorm afternoon/evening.

Back to Friday & Saturday --- moisture levels and dynamics may
allow locally heavy rainfall in spots. But before we get excited
about the monsoon becoming very active, remember that the models
are still bringing that upper high back to sit right over the area
for hotter temperatures (touching the century mark or slightly
higher in the lowlands) and a reduction in thunderstorm coverage,
just in time for Independence Day. Then again, this solution of
planting the upper high overhead like earlier in the month might
be foiled again by another upper wave currently unseen. One can
only hope.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 28/12Z-29/12Z. Mostly VFR conditions expected
with P6SM FEW-SCT050-070 SCT_BKN250 along with easterly winds
generally at speeds of 12 knots or less. With increasing low level
moisture and an approaching disturbance, expect VCSH after 12Z
with occasional CIGs 040-050. VCTS after 18z with local TSRAGS
SCT-BKN060CB winds VAR20G30KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As moisture continues to stream into the area on southeast flow our
chances for wetting precip will stick around. Rain chances will be
best today as we mix in the effects of a weak upper disturbance,
However, even with the return of upper ridging, we will continue
to see isolated to scattered convection the rest of the week with
the best coverage over mountains and our western zones. In fact,
the return of the aforementioned upper disturbance could bring
significant thunderstorm activity Friday and Saturday, though that
solution is a new one by the computer models and can`t be trusted
quite yet.

Min RH values look to remain above 20 percent for the week ahead
with very good recoveries each evening. Temps will actually be a bit
below normal Tuesday due to cloud cover before returning to more
normal levels to round out the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 90  72  94  74 /  50  30  10  10
Sierra Blanca           86  65  89  67 /  30  20   0   0
Las Cruces              88  66  92  69 /  50  30  10  10
Alamogordo              89  66  93  69 /  30  20  20  10
Cloudcroft              64  53  69  53 /  40  30  40  20
Truth or Consequences   86  66  90  68 /  40  30  20  20
Silver City             82  62  86  63 /  40  30  40  40
Deming                  88  67  92  69 /  40  30  10  20
Lordsburg               88  67  92  68 /  40  30  30  30
West El Paso Metro      90  72  94  74 /  50  30  10  10
Dell City               89  64  93  66 /  30  10   0   0
Fort Hancock            89  70  93  72 /  40  30   0  10
Loma Linda              86  64  89  68 /  40  30  10  10
Fabens                  90  68  94  71 /  50  30  10  10
Santa Teresa            89  69  93  71 /  50  30  10  10
White Sands HQ          88  68  92  71 /  40  30  10  10
Jornada Range           87  62  91  66 /  40  30  10  10
Hatch                   90  65  94  68 /  50  30  10  20
Columbus                89  68  93  70 /  40  30  10  20
Orogrande               89  68  92  71 /  40  30  10  10
Mayhill                 72  52  78  55 /  40  30  30  20
Mescalero               74  52  79  55 /  40  30  30  20
Timberon                72  51  77  54 /  40  30  30  20
Winston                 78  53  83  56 /  50  30  40  20
Hillsboro               86  60  90  64 /  50  30  30  20
Spaceport               88  64  91  68 /  40  30  10  10
Lake Roberts            82  52  87  53 /  50  30  50  30
Hurley                  83  61  87  63 /  40  30  30  30
Cliff                   86  60  91  58 /  40  30  40  40
Mule Creek              85  58  91  53 /  40  30  40  40
Faywood                 85  61  89  63 /  50  30  20  30
Animas                  88  66  93  68 /  40  30  30  30
Hachita                 88  65  92  67 /  40  30  20  30
Antelope Wells          86  64  90  65 /  40  30  30  30
Cloverdale              83  62  88  63 /  30  30  30  40

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

01 Fausett



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