Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 182318
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
Issued by National Weather Service ALBUQUERQUE NM
418 PM MST Thu Jan 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure will continue to slide eastward into the
Gulf coast states with a ridge of high pressure aloft lingering in
its wake. Warm southwesterly flow aloft will keep temperatures
above average on Friday with light to moderate breezes making it
to the surface. Stronger southwesterly winds are expected on
Saturday as a potent disturbance aloft moves inland from the west
coast. Some areas of blowing dust will be possible Saturday
afternoon and evening. Into Saturday night and Sunday a few rain
and high elevation snow showers will be possible as the
aforementioned disturbance aloft tracks over New Mexico. Colder
temperatures are then expected Sunday into Monday behind this
disturbance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Temperatures have been on the rise today with just a few high
clouds streaming in from the north. Milder overnight low
temperatures are expected tonight with the periodic bouts of
cirrus persisting. Into Friday, the warming trend will continue
with widespread above normal temperatures as the flow aloft turns
southwest and strengthens a bit.

The weather will turn more unsettled Saturday as the
southwesterly flow strengthens substantially due to an approaching
Pacific trough of low pressure that will be moving inland and on
pace to cross NM Saturday night. The warmer and above normal
temperatures will persist in the stronger southwesterly flow
Saturday afternoon. With 700 mb winds advertised to range between
35 to 50 kt (being strongest over the boot heel and the
Sacramentos) and deeper mixing expected to be present, stronger
momentum aloft should mix surface-ward. This will likely lead to
areas of blowing dust, especially given the dry antecedent
conditions.

A decent baroclinic zone is expected to take shape late Saturday
afternoon into the evening where moisture aligning with the
leading edge of the cold pool aloft will yield some light
precipitation, beginning first over portions of southwest New
Mexico by the late afternoon, spreading east across the area in
the evening hours. Precipitation will likely wane as the core of
the colder air aloft arrives, thus rain will likely be the
predominant precipitation type for lower elevations. As outlined
by previous shift, snow amounts for higher elevations will be on
the lighter side, generally in the 1 to 3 inch range above
6000-7000 feet. Precipitation should be diminishing by dawn Sunday
with colder air settling in.

The dry and cooler conditions on Sunday will be accompanied by
brisk west to northwest winds of 15 to 30 mph. These winds will
wane Sunday night with more tranquil conditions forecast through
the first half of next week as temperatures slowly rise day by
day. A dry trough passage appears on the horizon for Tuesday, and
the next significant perturbation appears to encroach upon the
area Thursday night into Friday.

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&&

.AVIATION...Valid 19/00Z-20/00Z...
VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites. Skies will be
generally clear. West winds at 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Temperatures will warmer more on Friday as the west southwest
flow strengthens. Windy conditions are then expected by Saturday
as a vigorous disturbance aloft approaches. Southwest winds in the
25 to 35 mph range (with higher gusts) are forecast by afternoon
and early evening, but minimum humidity should stay in the 15 to
25 percent range. The approaching weather system will bring light
rain and high elevation snow to the Gila and southwestern corner
of the state Saturday evening before spreading farther east
Saturday night. With precipitation waning Sunday morning, colder
and below normal temperatures are expected on Sunday, precluding
any fire weather concerns. Temperatures will steadily rebound next
week with dry conditions expected to prevail through most of the
work week.

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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 28  63  36  67 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           27  63  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              25  63  33  64 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              24  60  33  63 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              25  51  30  48 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   27  63  33  62 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             29  61  34  54 /   0   0   0  30
Deming                  24  65  31  64 /   0   0   0  10
Lordsburg               25  65  32  61 /   0   0   0  20
West El Paso Metro      30  62  39  66 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               22  63  29  68 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            27  67  35  72 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              28  58  37  62 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  26  64  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            26  62  34  66 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          27  62  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           22  62  30  64 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   23  65  31  64 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                26  65  34  66 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               26  61  34  64 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 28  61  35  58 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               25  57  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                25  54  31  54 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 22  61  28  55 /   0   0   0  20
Hillsboro               25  64  32  60 /   0   0   0  10
Spaceport               24  62  30  63 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            21  60  25  52 /   0   0   0  40
Hurley                  24  62  31  57 /   0   0   0  20
Cliff                   22  64  27  58 /   0   0   0  30
Mule Creek              27  62  33  55 /   0   0   0  40
Faywood                 27  64  33  59 /   0   0   0  20
Animas                  25  67  34  63 /   0   0   0  20
Hachita                 24  66  32  64 /   0   0   0  10
Antelope Wells          26  68  34  64 /   0   0   0  10
Cloverdale              31  64  37  59 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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