Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 041029
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
429 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL TODAY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY...WHILE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. EL PASO MAY SEE 90 DEGREES FOR
THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE OVER ON FRIDAY, BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST IN EASTERN OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES.
DRY WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A DEEP
TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST...A SHARP RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...AND A DEEP
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SE STATES.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE PLAINS HAS RESULTED IN LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER OUR AREA. AS EXPECTED IT IS A LITTLE GUSTY ON
THE WEST SLOPES OF THE FRANKLINS THIS MORNING WITH WINDS PEAKING
BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH...MOSTLY IN HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS EAST OF
I-10.

DESPITE THE SE WIND A CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORY WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM INCREASING FOR ANOTHER DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
CLIMB ABOUT 5 OR 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW AND FRIDAY AS MAX
TEMPS FLIRT WITH 90 AT EL PASO.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY AS A NARROW
BAND OF LOWER 40S DEWPOINTS SNEAKS IN WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE INTO
SW NEW MEXICO. MEANWHILE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN SLIDING EAST
OF THE AREA...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT LOBE EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY WEST OF THE RIO...WITH THE TROUGH PROVIDING SOME
LARGER SCALE LIFT. END RESULT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOMEWHAT
FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GILA...AND MOSTLY WEAKENING AS
THEY TRY AND MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE.

WEAK INSTABILITY ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE DRIER AIR WORKS
INTO SW NEW MEXICO.

THE MAIN RISK FROM T-STORMS ON BOTH DAYS WILL BE DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKES ESPECIALLY WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SW WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW OFF THE
WEST COAST MOVES EAST. WINDS WILL FAVOR AREAS WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE ON FRIDAY...OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY.

BREEZY TO WINDY...BUT COOLER...CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS.

&&

.AVIATION...04/12Z-05/12Z.
VFR CONDS THRU PD SKIES BETWEEN SKC AFT 06Z FEW 150. PREDOMINANT
WINDS FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS...EXCEPT AT
KTCS WHERE WINDS WILL DOMINATE FROM THE SOUTH. STRONGER WINDS WILL
BE SEEN IN THE MORNING HOURS... SPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 10 TO 20 KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE PASSING THROUGH OUR REGION IN THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSE FOR AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES UP TO THE LOWER 90S. ALSO A WIND SHIFT FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AFTER THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA. ADDITIONALLY AN UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM MOVING BEHIND THE RIDGE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL
STRENGTHEN THE WINDS... AS WELL AS COOL THE TEMPERATURES DOWN IN
THE WEEKEND. FOR THESE REASONS THERE IS A CHANCE FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS STARTING THIS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WEST OF THE
RIO GRANDE. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 PERCENT AND
STRONG WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KTS. TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN ZONES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 85  62  90  63 /   0   0   0  20
SIERRA BLANCA           83  55  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              83  54  88  56 /   0   0  10  20
ALAMOGORDO              83  50  88  58 /   0   0   0  10
CLOUDCROFT              61  42  65  43 /   0   0  10  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   82  53  87  57 /   0   0  10  20
SILVER CITY             80  51  83  49 /   0   0  20  20
DEMING                  84  53  88  53 /   0   0  20  20
LORDSBURG               85  55  90  51 /   0   0  20   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      84  62  89  62 /   0   0   0  20
DELL CITY               83  47  88  54 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            86  54  90  61 /   0   0   0  10
LOMA LINDA              81  56  84  58 /   0   0   0  10
FABENS                  86  57  89  61 /   0   0   0  20
SANTA TERESA            84  57  89  59 /   0   0  10  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          83  55  88  58 /   0   0   0  20
JORNADA RANGE           84  47  88  51 /   0   0   0  20
HATCH                   86  48  91  52 /   0   0  10  20
COLUMBUS                85  56  90  56 /   0   0  20  20
OROGRANDE               84  53  88  60 /   0   0   0  10
MAYHILL                 71  44  76  48 /   0   0  10  10
MESCALERO               71  42  76  46 /   0   0  10  10
TIMBERON                70  42  73  44 /   0   0  10  10
WINSTON                 74  43  79  42 /   0   0  20  20
HILLSBORO               80  50  84  50 /   0   0  20  20
SPACEPORT               83  49  88  52 /   0   0   0  20
LAKE ROBERTS            79  42  81  41 /   0   0  20  20
HURLEY                  79  50  83  49 /   0   0  20  20
CLIFF                   85  46  88  45 /   0   0  20  20
MULE CREEK              84  44  86  43 /   0   0  20   0
FAYWOOD                 80  50  85  47 /   0   0  20  20
ANIMAS                  86  53  89  49 /   0   0  10   0
HACHITA                 85  51  90  52 /   0   0  20  10
ANTELOPE WELLS          85  56  88  49 /   0   0  20   0
CLOVERDALE              85  54  84  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25-HARDIMAN / 29-CRESPO


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