Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 230906
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
306 AM MDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring warmer dry weather across New Mexico and
west Texas today. Upper level disturbances will combine with
surface low pressure systems to the east to produce windy
conditions with periods of blowing dust across the Borderland for
most of the week. Temperatures will remain near or above normal
through Friday but should cool down next weekend after a cold
front moves across the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will bring one last day of relatively quiet weather
with warmer temperatures and light to breezy winds today.

Thereafter zonal flow will become established across the central
and southern Rockies with winds aloft gradually increasing as a
broad trough deepens over the region. In addition a series of
short waves/impulses aloft will race eastward across the area.
Attendant westerly winds and downslope warming will combine with
dynamics aloft to generate a series of lee cyclones which will
develop over the vicinity of southeast Colorado...northeast New
Mexico and the Texas panhandle Monday through Friday. Ongoing
westerly winds will also transport warm dry air mass into
southern New Mexico/west Texas with dry lapse rates from the
surface to around 550 mb to 600 mb each afternoon. Consequently
the overall situation will be conducive for a prolonged period of
windy conditions across the CWA Monday all the way into Saturday.

More specifically lee cyclogenesis over southeast Colorado will
combine with passing short wave to produce near advisory wind
speeds many areas Monday afternoon. On Tuesday it appears a
stronger passing impulse plus cyclogenesis over the Texas
panhandle could support winds near warning criteria over a few
locations with more widespread blowing dust. Greatest wind speeds
may occur Friday afternoon as primary upper trough axis with a
cold front enters the region while a deep surface low develops
over eastern New Mexico. Cold frontal passage Friday night will
then bring cooler below normal temperatures next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...valid 23/12z-24/12z.
VFR conditions with clear skies below 10,000 feet agl. Surface
winds gusting from 20 to 30 kt before 18z then diminishing.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will bring warmer dry weather across New Mexico and
west Texas today. Upper level disturbances will combine with
surface low pressure systems to the east to produce windy
conditions with periods of blowing dust across the Borderland for
most of the week. Temperatures will remain near or above normal
through Friday but should cool down next weekend after a cold
front moves across the region. Expect Red Flag conditions for most
or all of the forecast area during the afternoon and early
evening hours Monday through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 82  60  90  66 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           76  56  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              80  50  88  55 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              79  54  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              59  41  65  44 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   80  53  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             76  48  79  51 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  82  48  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               85  48  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      82  60  89  66 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               78  49  91  56 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            82  56  93  61 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              75  57  84  62 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  83  57  91  63 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            82  55  89  60 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          80  58  88  64 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           80  47  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   82  47  90  52 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                83  55  89  60 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               80  57  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 68  44  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               68  44  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                64  42  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 74  40  79  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               78  46  83  50 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               81  46  88  51 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            76  33  78  37 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  76  44  80  47 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   83  41  86  44 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              80  46  81  48 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 77  47  82  50 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  88  49  89  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 84  48  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          87  50  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              83  50  82  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for NMZ110>113.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for TXZ055-056.

&&

$$

05 Rogash



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