Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

000
FXUS64 KEPZ 192103
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
203 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH
SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS
THIS WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP BY
CHRISTMAS DAY WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. IT MAY ALSO BECOME
BREEZY TO WINDY ON CHRISTMAS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING A FEW
LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOK CALLS FOR DRY WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FOR THE SUN BOWL NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE HAVE BROUGHT CLEARING SKIES
ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE BORDERLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER A FOGGY START THIS MORNING. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SATURDAY BUT THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH NO
RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED. SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE CWA WILL BE LOCATED
BETWEEN STRONG WEST COAST RIDGE AND MID WEST TROUGH WITH
SUBSIDING DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL ALSO INDUCE LEE SURFACE TROUGHING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE TO THE EAST RESULTING IN WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS. THIS
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT INFLOW OF WARMER DRY AIR MASS WHICH COMBINED
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL WARM TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY
AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD THROUGH NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS WITH ADVECTION OF
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT LOWERING TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES TO NEAR NORMAL. AIR MASS WILL ALSO LACK
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO SUPPORT ANY RAIN OR SNOW SO CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENCES CHRISTMAS/THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE ECMWF INDICATES A STRONGER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH MAJOR LEE CYCLOGENESIS TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN WARM...DRY AND WINDY WEATHER ON
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE GFS HAS A SHALLOWER WEAKER SYSTEM WITH LESS WIND THURSDAY AND
LESS COOLING FRIDAY/SATURDAY. LATEST SUPER BLEND TAKES A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION INDICATING BREEZY CONDITIONS THURSDAY FOLLOWED
BY MODERATE COOLING LATER PERIODS ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN/MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. SUN BOWL SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 20/00Z- 21/00Z...
P6SM FEW-SCT040-050 THRU 03Z...THEN P6SM SCT-BKN200-250. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER 08KTS THROUGH PD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY BUT WITH A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES BRINGING DOWN SOME COOLER AIR ON OCCASION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMING UP TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT A
LITTLE COOL DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE CHRISTMAS
HOLIDAY BUT POSSIBLY COME WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE FALLING INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH 30S AND 40S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 30  55  33  60  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           30  55  32  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              27  54  30  59  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              26  52  29  57  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              18  34  23  42  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   27  50  30  57  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             27  46  30  54  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  25  53  28  59  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               25  52  29  57  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      33  53  36  59  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               26  56  28  60  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            29  57  32  63  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              31  48  34  55  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  28  56  30  61  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            26  54  29  59  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          30  53  34  58  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           21  52  23  58  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   25  53  28  59  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                28  53  32  59  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               27  52  31  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 24  44  29  50  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               20  42  25  48  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                23  42  26  49  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 23  45  27  52  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               27  48  31  56  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               23  52  25  58  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            23  46  27  53  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  25  48  29  55  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   21  52  25  58  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              18  48  21  56  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 28  47  31  55  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  25  55  30  60  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 22  54  26  59  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          23  55  26  61  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              26  54  29  60  33 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/26 GRZYWACZ






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.