Area Forecast Discussion
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423
FXUS64 KEPZ 180954
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
254 AM MST Sat Nov 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A passing cold front will result in continued dry but cooler
weather today and Sunday across southern New Mexico and west
Texas. Westerly winds and high pressure aloft will bring warmer
dry conditions Monday and Tuesday with a weak cold front causing
only slightly cooler temperatures on Wednesday. Thanksgiving day
through next Saturday will see warm above normal temperatures
under partly to mostly sunny skies.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front will move to the southwest through southern New
Mexico and west Texas this morning with north to northeast winds
behind the boundary advecting cooler dry modified Canadian air.
Thus today`s high temperatures will cool around 15 degrees from
yesterday with about another 5 degrees of cooling on Sunday.
Gradients will also support breezy conditions across much of the
area today, especially along western slopes.

Monday and Tuesday New Mexico and west Texas will be located
between high amplitude ridge west of the divide and deep
troughing in the mid west. This will place the region in a
subsiding northwest flow aloft with the combination of subsidence
and sunshine causing temperatures to warm to around 5 to 7 degrees
above normal Monday and Tuesday. However another weak cold front
will move southward through the CWA later Tuesday resulting in
temperatures cooling back to near normal on Wednesday.

Thanksgiving Thursday through next Saturday the combination of
sunshine and subsidence aloft will again result in more warm dry
weather with temperatures around 5 to 10 degrees above normal and
mostly light winds.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 18/12z-19/12z.
VFR conditions with areas of ceilings above 10,000 feet agl.
Mostly north to northeasterly surface winds will gust around 20 to
30 kt through 18z with strongest winds especially along western
slopes.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A passing cold front will result in continued dry but cooler
weather today and Sunday across southern New Mexico and west
Texas. North to northeast winds will gust around 20 to 30 mph
this morning with highest wind speeds mostly along western slopes,
Westerly winds and high pressure aloft will bring warmer dry
conditions Monday and Tuesday with a weak cold front causing only
slightly cooler temperatures on Wednesday. Thanksgiving day
through next Saturday will see warm above normal temperatures
under partly to mostly sunny skies. Wind speeds mostly from 5 to
15 mph Sunday through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 69  38  65  42 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           67  36  62  40 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              67  34  63  38 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              58  31  59  37 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              49  24  45  32 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   63  34  62  39 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             65  33  63  36 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  68  33  64  36 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               70  37  65  38 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      65  42  63  44 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               64  34  62  37 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            71  42  66  41 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              66  35  62  41 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  71  40  67  39 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            67  35  64  40 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          65  35  62  40 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           63  31  62  38 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   68  33  64  38 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                68  36  64  38 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               67  35  62  40 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 57  25  52  34 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               60  27  55  33 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                56  25  52  33 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 63  24  62  31 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               64  32  63  37 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               65  28  62  37 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            68  25  64  29 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  65  31  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   69  26  66  31 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              69  26  65  35 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 66  32  63  36 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  73  36  67  37 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 71  34  65  36 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          72  35  66  38 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              72  38  67  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05 Rogash



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