Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 272053
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
253 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR RECORD BREAKING DAY TIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MONDAY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY A SHARP DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS TO BE
WARM AND DRY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE BORDERLAND`S
WEATHER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS A RESULT THE AREA WILL SEE VERY WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH NEAR RECORD BREAKING
DAY TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT BREEZY
WINDS FOR THE WEEKEND.

MODELS STILL INDICATING THAT MONDAY THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN
WILL BE INTERRUPTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE LOW WILL BREAK DOWN
THE UPPER RIDGE AND CAUSE HIGH TEMPS TO FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS QUICK TO
LEAVE THE AREA AND IS NOT VERY STRONG IT DOES TAP SOME BAJA MOISTURE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
INSTABILITY INDICES SHOW THAT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL. QPF WILL GENERALLY BE LOW
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS ARE STRONGER.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS REINSTATE
THEMSELVES OVER THE REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS EAST OF THE
CWA AND THE WESTERLIES TAKE OVER WITH ZONAL FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON
WINDS REACHING THE BREEZY TO WINDY CATEGORIES EACH AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING LOOKS TO BE THE WINDIEST DAY OF THE WEEK
WITH WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. WHILE THIS
DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A WIDE SPREAD BLOWING DUST EVENT THERE IS THE
POSSIBLY FOR LOCAL BLOWING DUST.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 28/00Z-29/00Z...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEST OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST AND BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLIES
SATURDAY. WE MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE IN FAR SW
NEW MEXICO DURING PEAK MIXING SAT AFTERNOON.  A FEW CIRRUS MAY
CASCADE OVER THE RIDGE OVERNIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEST OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND SLOWLY
BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA WITH MAX TEMPS SPIKING TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING
DAILY RECORDS IN SOME SPOTS. CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
SINGLE-DIGIT AFTERNOON RH VALUES. RH RECOVERY WILL BE POOR IN THE
LOWLANDS. WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN FAR SW
NEW MEXICO WITH A FEW 20-FT GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH IN THE LOWLAND
DESERTS.

A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL ROLL THROUGH ON
MONDAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA
WITH A 5-10 DEGREE COOL DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK UP TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (80S IN THE DESERTS) BY MID-WEEK.
THERE MAY BE SOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY AFTERNOONS...BUT NO BLOCKBUSTER
WIND EVENTS ON ARE ON THE HORIZON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 51  88  56  88  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           47  83  50  84  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              45  86  47  85  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              45  84  48  84  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              40  64  43  64  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   47  83  49  83  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             44  76  44  76  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  43  86  45  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               44  84  45  84  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      52  87  55  87  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               45  87  48  88  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            48  88  52  89  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              49  80  53  80  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  48  88  53  88  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            48  85  49  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          49  83  52  84  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           41  86  43  84  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   44  86  47  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                46  84  48  84  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               48  83  51  84  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 43  73  47  74  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               40  72  43  72  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                41  71  45  72  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 41  77  42  76  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               46  81  47  81  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               43  84  45  84  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            40  76  41  75  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  43  79  45  79  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   42  83  42  82  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              36  81  36  81  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 45  80  46  79  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  45  85  47  84  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 43  85  45  85  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          42  86  45  84  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              44  82  46  81  50 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

PAZOS/HARDIMAN




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