Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 281007
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
407 AM MDT WED SEP 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture from Roslyn will continue to spread across the Borderland
through Friday, producing scattered showers and thunderstorms over
much of the area. The favored area today and Thursday will be
mainly west of the Rio Grande Valley, while on Friday the favored
area shifts to east of the Rio Grande Valley. With the temperature
warming some through this period, instability will increase and
some thunderstorms are possible. A few of these could become
strong, especially Thursday and Friday. Drier air moves in for the
weekend as a strong Pacific trough aloft brings in west flow.
Skies will be mostly clear for the weekend, and the dry mild
weather looks to continue into much of the coming week.
Temperatures will warm back to near normal. By Monday and Tuesday
of next week, gusty winds may also develop in the westerly
pattern.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tropical moisture continues to stream over the CWA between old
upper low now over southern California, and a high center over
northeast Mexico. The remnants of Roslyn are now centered over the
central Baja and will continue lifting north over the next two
days. Expect chances of rain through Friday, the question is not
of moisture but of triggering mechanisms. GFS and NAM differ on
the subtle short wave features, with the GFS bringing a wave up
this afternoon, while the NAM shows one moving up early Thursday
morning. The GFS wave originates from Roslyn, while the NAM wave
originates southeast of Roslyn over the Pacific Coast of Mexico.
Satellite imagery does show some enhancement around Puerto
Vallarta, but for now will keep POPs first two days fairly broad
brushed. Having said that, the zones west of the Rio Grande Valley
look to have the best chances today and tomorrow. Modest MUCAPE
values of 200-600 J/kg in the west today should allow a few
thunderstorms to develop.

On Thursday the MUCAPE increases some, perhaps as high as 1000
J/kg, and some decent directional shear develops (again mostly
west of the Rio Grande Valley). A few storms could become strong
so will have to watch this, as small hail and gusty winds could be
a threat. Models show the remains of Roslyn finally over the
area; despite no great increase in PW`s (around one inch) flood
potential may be at it`s highest also. On Friday the moisture will
begin to shift east, with areas east of the Rio Grande Valley
standing the best shot at thunderstorms. MUCAPES remain fairly low
(maybe 200-400 J/kg) but shear remains adequate for a few strong
storms to form.

Saturday and beyond...looking more like typical fall pattern. West
to southwest flow aloft strengthens in response to strong Pacific
trough moving onshore-eventually over the Great Basin by Monday.
This will rapidly flush all moisture out Saturday and bring an
extended period of few clouds and warmer temperatures. Weekend
temperatures should reach back to normal, with only slight cooling
Tue/Wed as Pacific cool front pushes through. Winds will also
increase and will probably reach breezy/windy category Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 28/12Z-29/12Z...
Genly VFR conds with P6SM SCT/BKN120 BKN250 through much of the
period. After 18Z...Sct -TSRA 3-5SM BKN090CB...most frequent west
of the Rio Grande Valley. Thunderstorms mostly ending by 04Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tropical moisture from Roslyn will continue to produce some
showers and thunderstorms over the fire zones. For today and
tomorrow, the best chances will be west of the Rio Grande Valley,
while on Friday, the action will likely shift to east of the
Valley. Min RH`s will be mostly in the 30s lowlands and 40s
mountains.

Large Pacific trough will bring an extended dry and mild period to
the area beginning Saturday and lasting into much of next week.
Temperatures will moderate back to normal. Some gusty wind is
possible Monday and Tuesday, though moisture from the recent past
should keep fire conditions below critical. Min RH`s will fall to
the 20s lowlands and 30s mountains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 82  63  80  61 /  10  10  20  20
Sierra Blanca           79  58  75  56 /  10  10   0   0
Las Cruces              80  59  79  57 /  20  10  20  20
Alamogordo              81  57  79  55 /  20  20  20  20
Cloudcroft              67  41  60  39 /  20  20  20  20
Truth or Consequences   78  58  77  56 /  20  20  20  20
Silver City             74  56  70  52 /  40  30  50  50
Deming                  79  58  79  56 /  20  30  30  30
Lordsburg               79  57  78  54 /  30  30  40  50
West El Paso Metro      81  63  80  61 /  10  10  20  20
Dell City               82  57  78  54 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Hancock            82  61  79  60 /  20  20  10  10
Loma Linda              79  60  73  56 /  10  10  20  20
Fabens                  82  60  80  58 /  10  10  20  20
Santa Teresa            81  61  80  59 /  10  10  20  20
White Sands HQ          80  59  78  57 /  20  10  20  20
Jornada Range           81  55  79  54 /  20  10  20  20
Hatch                   80  58  78  57 /  20  20  20  20
Columbus                80  60  79  58 /  20  20  30  30
Orogrande               82  60  79  59 /  20  10  20  20
Mayhill                 72  47  63  46 /  20  20  20  20
Mescalero               74  47  67  46 /  20  10  20  20
Timberon                72  47  64  46 /  20  20  20  20
Winston                 75  48  70  47 /  30  30  50  50
Hillsboro               78  54  76  52 /  30  30  40  40
Spaceport               79  57  77  55 /  20  20  20  20
Lake Roberts            75  50  72  50 /  40  30  50  50
Hurley                  76  55  72  51 /  40  30  40  50
Cliff                   79  46  77  48 /  40  30  50  50
Mule Creek              77  44  74  45 /  40  30  60  60
Faywood                 77  55  76  53 /  30  30  40  50
Animas                  80  55  80  54 /  30  30  40  50
Hachita                 79  55  79  53 /  30  30  40  50
Antelope Wells          79  56  77  54 /  30  30  40  50
Cloverdale              77  57  75  54 /  40  20  40  50

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

17 Hefner



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