Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 112210
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
310 PM MST Mon Dec 11 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
We will see some high clouds the next couple of days and then more
sun then clouds for the rest of the week. Highs this week will run
near seasonal averages through the end of the week. Highs on
Saturday could be well above normal, before dropping back closer
to average on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
We will see a relatively quiet weather for the next seven days.
Currently an upper level ridge continues to be anchored over the
intermountain west. At the same time an upper level trough was
cutting through the base of the upper ridge. Many times this type
of pattern forms a Rex block, but this time around just as the
upper trough gets into place the upper ridge starts to break down,
so it is a quasi-Rex block pattern. The upper trough to our
southwest is tapping into some high moisture so we will see a lot
of high clouds today and through much of tomorrow.

On Tuesday a weak back door cold front will move into the region,
but right now the front looks to have very little effect on our
temperatures, so we can expect to see highs a few degrees above
average again on Tuesday. On Wednesday the upper level ridge
begins to break down and move back to the west, in response to a
series of upper level short waves moving across the upper Midwest.
These Midwestern short waves will be too far north to directly
effect our weather, but they will try and push another weak back
door cold front across the region. Previous runs of the models had
some moderate cooling associated with this feature, but the
current run of the GFS (and to a less extend the ECMWF) have
reversed that trend and actually warm us a degree or two on
Thursday and Friday.

For Saturday another upper level short wave, this one moving
through Colorado, will help tighten up our pressure gradient, so
we may see some breezy westerly winds Saturday afternoon. These
winds will help warm our afternoon temps almost 10 degrees above
average. But then on Sunday yet another back door cold front tries
to move into the region and this looks like it will cool Sunday`s
highs around 5 degrees (which still keeps us above average). All
and all, it will be a pretty nice week, weatherwise, for mid
December.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 12/00Z-13/00Z... VFR conditions to continue thru
the period at all terminals. An upper level disturbance  over Baja
is  advecting SCT-BKN140 and BKN200-250 over the area until about
09Z-12Z then becoming few-sct through the end of the fcst pd. This
system could also produce some isold spkls over the over the Boot
Heel of NM til about 06Z Tuesday. Winds will remain VRB NW-NE 5-8
KTS thru the pd.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and mild conditions will continue through most of this new week.
An upper level low pressure system is spreading considerable mid and
high level cloudiness over our area. By this afternoon a few showers
are possible across the NM Bootheel. Dry west/northwest flow aloft
will finish out the week. Temperatures will remain just above normal
for all of this week, while min RHs will remain at 15-25% through
the week.Mixing heights will remain fairly low along with weak
transport winds that will keep vent rate categories mostly in the
fair to poor range the next few days.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 33  60  33  63 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           30  58  32  62 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              29  60  28  62 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              28  59  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              20  50  21  52 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   29  59  29  62 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             26  57  28  60 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  28  62  27  65 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               28  62  30  65 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      33  61  34  62 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               30  61  29  64 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            32  63  33  66 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              30  57  33  58 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  31  63  31  64 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            29  60  30  62 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          31  60  31  62 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           18  60  21  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   22  61  23  64 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                29  61  28  63 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               30  60  31  62 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 23  55  26  57 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               23  56  25  55 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                23  54  25  55 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 15  56  21  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               26  59  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               17  60  19  62 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            20  60  23  60 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  24  59  25  61 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   16  61  19  63 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              15  61  20  61 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 27  60  28  62 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  27  62  27  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 28  61  27  64 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          29  60  28  63 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              29  60  30  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Brice/Novlan


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