Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 311035
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
431 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR WET PERIOD HAS STARTED AS AN ALREADY MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE
BORDERLAND WILL BE ENHANCED BY A WEAK COOL FRONT...CURRENTLY IN EL
PASO AND OTERO COUNTIES...MOVING WEST THROUGH THE AREA. AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
AND PROBABLY SUNDAY TOO. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH SOME ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE MOISTURE PLUME WORKS ITS WAY EAST OF THE
AREA...AND BY WEDNESDAY DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND WE SHOULD RETURN TO
SUNNIER AND WARMER WEATHER. WITH THE RAIN AND CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE OUR WET MONSOON PERIOD IS ON TRACK. BACK DOOR COOL FRONT
HAS MOVED INTO THE EASTERN CWA PRETTY MUCH AS PROGGED AND LOOKS TO
BE OVER WESTERN OTERO AND EASTERN EL PASO COUNTIES AT THIS TIME.
WHAT WAS AN TYPICAL SUMMER CONVECTIVE EVENING WEDNESDAY NIGHT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WAS GREATLY ENHANCED IN
THE EAST WITH THE PENETRATION OF THE COOL FRONT. STRONG STORMS FIRED
UP ALONG THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW NEAR SEVERE/SEVERE
STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN MAKERS. AS THE UPPER FLOW WAS LIGHT AND
PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MCS WAS ABLE TO FORM OVER OTERO
COUNTY. CLOUD TOP TEMPS CHILLED TO AN IMPRESSIVE -74C WHICH
CORRESPOND TO AROUND 50-55K FT...THROUGH THE TROPOPAUSE. CLOUD TOPS
ARE RAPIDLY COLLAPSING LAST FEW HOURS BUT A FEW DECENT STORMS
CONTINUE TO SPAWN ALONG THE FRONT IN EL PASO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES.

ALL THE MAJOR MODELS SHOW THE FRONT OUT TO AT LEAST THE CONT DIVIDE
AND LIKELY THE ARIZONA BORDER BY THIS AFTERNOON. PW`S CURRENTLY
RANGE FROM 1.1" NORTHWEST TO 1.5" SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD BECOME MORE
UNIFORM 1.3"-1.5" ALL AREAS NEXT 3 DAYS. OTHER PARAMETERS: MUCAPES
OF AROUND 1200-2000 J/KG AND AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG MOUNTAINS...AND
LI`S OF -2 TO -4...WILL ALL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL ALL ZONES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AND LIKELY
SUNDAY. CAN`T REALLY PUT MUCH SPATIAL RESOLUTION INTO THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY BE EFFECTED BY SEVERAL
SUB-SYNOPTIC FEATURES SUCH AS STORM OUTFLOWS...LOCATION OF FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING GRADIENTS BETWEEN RAIN/NO
RAIN AREAS AND CLOUDY/SUNNY AREAS. FOR THIS REASON EXPANDED FLASH
FLOOD WATCH OUT TO ALL ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMP
FORECAST IS TRICKY AS PROLONGED DAYTIME CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP HIGHS
IN NEAR- RECORD LOW MAX TERRITORY.

MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND THANKS TO CONTINUED DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS
WILL RESULT IN YET ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS WILL BE WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE TRACKING NORTHWARD
THROUGH ARIZONA AND THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN OVER NEW
MEXICO. MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD FINALLY RAMP DOWN IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AS THE UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA LIFTS NORTH AND FORCES THE
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME SLOWLY EASTWARD. REMAINING MOISTURE GETS
RECYCLED DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS RESULTING IN
MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY. BY WEDNESDAY WESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE
ALLOWING FOR MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS AND TEMPS WARMING BACK ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...UNTIL ABT 15Z...BKN/OVC 120 WITH
SCATTERED -TSRA BKN100CB TOPS 450 AND ISOLATED +TSRA CIG AOB 030
VSBYS 1-3SM. OTHERWISE ALL AREAS UNTIL ABT 18Z...SCT/BKN120 LAYERS
230 WITH SCATTERED -TSRA/SHRA BKN100CB. AFT 18Z...BKN100 WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS -TSRA/SHRA BKN080CB TOPS 500-550 WITH ISOLATED
+TSRA CIGS AOB 020 VSBYS 1SM. WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS POSSIBLE NEAR
SOME STORMS...ALONG WITH PEA SIZE HAIL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE BEGIN OUR WET PERIOD TODAY WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH SUNDAY FOR ALL
ZONES...THEN TAPERING OFF IN COVERAGE AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SOME BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECT AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND WITH THE GROUND SATURATED IN PLACES (LIKE MUCH OF THE
MOUNTAIN ZONES)...FLOOD POTENTIAL IS PRETTY HIGH ACROSS ALL ZONES
BUT ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAIN ZONES AND THE BURN SCARS IN PARTICULAR.
UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA EVENTUALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD MONDAY AND WITH IT
THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME SLOWLY SLIDES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STILL A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MIN RH`S THROUGH SUNDAY...35-45% LOWLANDS AND 45-60%
MOUNTAINS...WITH MIN RH`S DECREASING ALL AREAS SLIGHTLY BY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 90  71  88  70  85 /  60  60  60  60  60
SIERRA BLANCA           83  71  84  71  78 /  60  50  50  60  40
LAS CRUCES              89  68  87  68  83 /  60  60  60  60  60
ALAMOGORDO              86  69  88  69  82 /  70  70  60  60  60
CLOUDCROFT              65  48  64  47  64 /  80  70  80  60  70
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   86  67  86  67  81 /  60  60  60  60  60
SILVER CITY             84  62  81  60  78 /  70  60  60  60  70
DEMING                  90  68  86  68  83 /  60  60  60  60  60
LORDSBURG               90  66  86  67  83 /  40  40  50  60  60
WEST EL PASO METRO      90  72  89  72  84 /  60  60  60  60  60
DELL CITY               86  67  87  65  84 /  60  50  50  60  40
FORT HANCOCK            88  70  89  71  85 /  60  50  60  60  40
LOMA LINDA              88  64  82  66  86 /  60  60  60  60  50
FABENS                  90  71  89  71  85 /  60  60  60  60  50
SANTA TERESA            89  69  88  69  84 /  60  60  60  60  60
WHITE SANDS HQ          88  70  86  70  85 /  60  60  60  60  60
JORNADA RANGE           87  66  86  64  83 /  60  60  60  60  60
HATCH                   88  67  86  66  83 /  60  60  60  60  60
COLUMBUS                90  68  87  68  84 /  60  60  60  60  60
OROGRANDE               88  68  87  68  84 /  60  60  60  60  60
MAYHILL                 73  54  73  52  71 /  80  70  80  60  80
MESCALERO               71  55  74  51  71 /  80  70  80  60  70
TIMBERON                73  51  73  50  71 /  80  70  80  60  70
WINSTON                 82  59  81  58  79 /  80  60  80  60  80
HILLSBORO               88  65  81  67  84 /  60  60  60  60  70
SPACEPORT               85  67  87  67  82 /  60  60  60  60  60
LAKE ROBERTS            85  53  80  53  82 /  70  60  70  60  70
HURLEY                  87  62  83  60  78 /  60  60  60  60  70
CLIFF                   86  59  82  56  81 /  50  60  60  60  60
MULE CREEK              86  56  81  54  80 /  40  50  60  60  60
FAYWOOD                 88  62  83  64  83 /  60  60  60  60  70
ANIMAS                  89  69  89  69  84 /  40  40  60  60  60
HACHITA                 88  66  89  66  85 /  50  50  60  60  60
ANTELOPE WELLS          86  69  88  69  83 /  40  40  50  60  50
CLOVERDALE              87  60  81  66  81 /  40  50  60  60  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR NMZ401>417.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

HEFNER/LANEY








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