Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 172024
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
224 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN AREAS DURING THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SATURDAY AND
NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY AS THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
AFTERNOON BREEZES. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY GENERATE
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS AND BLOWING DUST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THAT HAS
BEEN DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES DURING THE
WEEKEND. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
MAKING IT INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF GRANT AND SIERRA COUNTIES.
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN VERY SLIM BUT WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS JUST IN CASE. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
TONIGHT WITH COOLISH TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT.
SOME OUTLYING AREAS WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING BY THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS BUT MOST AREAS WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING...EXCEPT IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
WITH AFTERNOON BREEZES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. THERE ALSO
REMAINS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OF BOTH DAYS. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE SPOTTY AND GENERALLY NOT
MUCH MORE THAN A TRACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
SATURDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WHICH
MEANS AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 80 FOR THE LOWLANDS.

A MORE WESTERLY FLOW TYPE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA
AS PART OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OCCURRING OVER THE COUNTRY. A
SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL ALSO BE IN THE AREA THAT WILL HELP LIMIT
WIND SPEEDS...BUT BREEZY AFTERNOONS ARE STILL EXPECTED. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A WEAK DRY LINE JUST EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY
THAT COULD BRIEFLY PUSH INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF HUDSPETH AND
OTERO COUNTIES BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
SLIM.

THE DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE STATE FROM THE WEST.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE HAD SOME RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
PROBLEMS WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM...SO
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH. BEST GUESS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF
NEXT WEEK WILL BE THAT THE LOW TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ZONES OF
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS STORM WILL BE
STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING AND BLOWING DUST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
DESERT LOWLANDS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON
FRIDAY. FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL PROVIDE BETTER CONSISTENCY AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 18/00Z-19/00Z...
P6SM SKC-SCT100-120 THRU 12Z...THEN FEW-SCT080-100 SCT-BKN200-250. W
WINDS OF 10-15G25KTS WILL DECREASE TO 5-10KTS AND SHIFT MORE TO THE
NW BY 04Z. W WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AFT 18Z TO 15-20G30KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR CO/NM BORDER AND WILL START TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TOMORROW. THIS WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS GOING ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE...AND WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO CRITICAL
VALUES...SO WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE LOWLANDS.
LIGHTER WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED GOING INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST WILL INCREASE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL CRITICAL FIRE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 44  75  51  80  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           39  71  45  75  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              36  74  44  78  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              38  70  44  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              30  53  33  58  34 /  10  10  10  10  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   36  72  45  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             33  65  39  70  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  34  73  42  79  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               33  73  39  78  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      44  74  51  79  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               39  75  45  79  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            41  76  47  80  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              40  68  47  73  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  41  75  47  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            39  75  46  79  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          42  73  49  77  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           32  74  40  78  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   36  75  43  79  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                40  73  46  77  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               40  73  47  77  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 33  60  38  64  38 /  10   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               32  59  37  63  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                34  59  38  63  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 31  65  35  70  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               34  71  41  75  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               33  73  40  78  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            32  65  36  69  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  32  68  38  72  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   31  73  38  77  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              28  70  32  74  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 33  69  40  73  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  38  74  43  78  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 35  74  41  78  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          37  73  41  77  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              35  69  40  73  43 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/26 LUNDEEN/GRZYWACZ





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