Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 182000
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
200 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Moist unstable air will flow into southern New Mexico and west
Texas while upper level disturbances move across the region. This
weather pattern will bring isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the Borderland tonight...Thursday and
Thursday night. Westerly winds will cause warm dry weather over
the region Friday and Saturday before a cold front brings slightly
cooler but continued dry conditions early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Currently the low level circulation across the region is being
dominated by large surface high extending across the southern
United States and a surface low over Arizona. This pattern will
induce southwest to southeast winds in the boundary layer with
inflow of moisture sustaining surface dewpoints in the mid 40s to
lower 50s and above normal precipitable water around .75 to 1 inch
tonight through Thursday night. The combination of moisture and
warm temperatures will make air mass weakly to moderately unstable
with CAPEs around 600 to 1200 J/kg. Thus risk of deep convection
will increase tonight and continue Thursday and Thursday night.

Aloft a series of short waves will be moving west to east across
the CWA. One weak impulse in currently initiating a few storms
this afternoon. A second wave will move through the region tonight
with stronger better defined short waves advancing across the
region Thursday and Thursday night. In addition southern New
Mexico and far west Texas will become located in the left front
quadrant of a 100 kt upper jet streak on Thursday. Dynamic upward
forcing from these elements will generate isolated to scattered
thunderstorms with greatest coverage eastern half of the CWA
where instability and moisture will be highest.

Mid level flow will increase to around 30 kt Thursday and Thursday
night providing adequate shear for some updraft enhancement. Wet
bulb zero heights will also be generally less than 9000 feet agl.
These factors plus rather abundant moisture suggest a few areas
may experience hail up to an inch in diameter and around an inch
of rainfall.

Westerly winds will bring a return to warmer dry weather Friday
and Saturday as lee surface troughing develops along the eastern
slopes of New Mexico. A cold front will drop southward through the
CWA late Saturday causing temperatures to cool to near normal
Sunday. Northwest flow aloft will sustain dry weather with near
normal temperatures Monday through next Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 19/00Z-20/00Z...
P6SM SCT-BKN090-110 BKN150-200 with isolated to scattered -SHRA and
3-5SM -TSRA BKN050-070 through 09Z with best chances mountains and
east of Rio Grande. Thunderstorm chances return again after 18Z with
chances across region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Moisture has returned to the area with a couple of disturbances
moving across Borderland.  Expect isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms this evening through Thursday. Some storms may be
strong with heavy rain, especially eastern zones on Thursday. Much
drier air will return by the weekend and continue into early next
week. Breezy west winds are expected as the drier air moves in
Friday and Saturday before decreasing behind weak cold front Sunday.
After a couple of days with minimum relative humidities in the 20s
and 30s, they will fall back into the teens for the weekend and into
at least Monday.  Vent rates will return to very good to excellent
for Friday and Saturday before dropping to poor to fair early next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 62  84  61  86 /  30  20  40   0
Sierra Blanca           59  82  58  85 /  20  20  50   0
Las Cruces              56  81  56  84 /  30  30  40   0
Alamogordo              54  80  58  82 /  30  50  50   0
Cloudcroft              40  61  46  63 /  30  50  60   0
Truth or Consequences   57  80  56  83 /  20  40  30   0
Silver City             49  76  51  75 /  10  40  20   0
Deming                  55  82  54  84 /  20  30  30   0
Lordsburg               57  83  55  83 /  10  20  20   0
West El Paso Metro      62  83  61  85 /  30  20  40   0
Dell City               57  85  56  87 /  20  30  50   0
Fort Hancock            62  85  59  88 /  20  20  50   0
Loma Linda              57  79  59  81 /  20  20  50   0
Fabens                  59  84  59  87 /  30  20  40   0
Santa Teresa            59  83  60  86 /  30  20  40   0
White Sands HQ          56  81  58  83 /  30  30  50   0
Jornada Range           51  80  57  83 /  30  30  40   0
Hatch                   56  82  56  84 /  30  30  40   0
Columbus                56  83  57  86 /  20  30  30   0
Orogrande               57  82  59  84 /  30  30  50   0
Mayhill                 42  69  48  72 /  30  50  60   0
Mescalero               44  70  49  71 /  30  50  60   0
Timberon                39  68  48  70 /  30  50  60   0
Winston                 39  73  46  75 /  20  50  30   0
Hillsboro               52  78  53  80 /  20  50  30   0
Spaceport               47  80  55  83 /  30  30  40   0
Lake Roberts            39  75  45  74 /  10  50  20   0
Hurley                  47  78  50  78 /  20  40  20   0
Cliff                   45  81  48  81 /   0  30  20   0
Mule Creek              45  78  52  78 /   0  30  10   0
Faywood                 51  78  52  79 /  20  40  30   0
Animas                  56  84  55  84 /  10  10  20   0
Hachita                 55  84  54  84 /  20  20  20   0
Antelope Wells          55  83  54  83 /  10  20  20   0
Cloverdale              56  80  54  80 /  10  20  20   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05 Rogash/26 Grzywacz



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