Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 302041
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
241 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING SEASONABLY WARM AND DRIER WEATHER
TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRING AROUND HIGHER MOUNTAIN
REGIONS. MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL FLOW BACK INTO THE BORDERLAND
LATER NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A VERY WET MORNING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS SLOWLY BUILDING
WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO THE WEEKEND. CURRENTLY RATHER MOIST
UNSTABLE REMAINS OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS AS DEWPOINTS ARE
IN THE 60S...PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.3 INCHES AND EARLY
AFTERNOON MUCAPES 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. THUS A FEW AREAS OF DEEP
CONVECTION STILL EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT VECTORS...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS SILL REMAIN A THREAT WHILE RATHER HIGH CAPES VALUES
INDICATE SEVERAL STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND STRONG DOWNDRAFTS.
RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE CWA MAY KEEP COVERAGE IN THE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CATEGORY MOST AREAS AS WATER VAPOR IMAGES
SHOWING DRY AIR ALOFT SPREADING EAST TO WEST SUGGESTING LARGER
SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL BECOME LOCATED OVER NEW MEXICO MOST OF THE
WEEKEND WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING ALOFT STABILIZING
AIR MASS MOST LOCATIONS. THUS WARM MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS
FORECASTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOST STORMS
FORMING OVER OR AROUND HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF LAS CRUCES AND
WEST OF DEMING.

BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER COMBINATION OF SUMMER DESERT HEAT
LOW OVER WESTERN ARIZONA AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
GENERATE 10 TO 20 MPH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 850 MB WITH
INFLOW OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE SUSTAINING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S. THIS WILL SUPPORT PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOUND 1.1 INCHES
WITH AIR MASS BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES AROUND 500 TO
1000 J/KG. FINALLY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL BECOME LOCATED THROUGH
THE CWA RESULTING IN WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THUS CONVECTION
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS AND AT LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 31/00Z-01/00Z.
STABLE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF OVERNIGHT/EARLY AM CONVECTION WILL
LIMIT T-STORM POTENTIAL IN THE LOWLANDS...INCLUDING ELP LRU AND DMN.
SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED IN THE SACRAMENTOS DOWN INTO HUDSPETH
COUNTY TX...AS WELL AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GILA AND BOOTHEEL
REGIONS THIS EVENING.  DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL BRING A DOWNTICK IN
CONVECTION OUTSIDE THE HIGH TERRAIN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
LIGHT SE TO S FLOW AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING.  T-STORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTS TO
AROUND 40 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE IN AN AREA FOCUSED ON THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LAGGING BEHIND AND SO FAR
CONTAINED TO OTERO COUNTY. EXPECT STORMS TO MAINLY FOCUS ON
OTERO/HUDSPETH...GRANT AND HIDALGO COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH VERY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE.

DRIER AIR ALOFT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE PULLED INTO THE AREA
AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REPOSITIONS ITSELF TO THE NORTH. THIS
WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO MAINLY THE HIGH TERRAIN
AND FAR SW NEW MEXICO LOWLANDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST...WITH
TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND MIN
RH VALUES IN THE LOWLANDS DROPPING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT OVER THE
WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 73  97  75  98 /  20   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           69  94  69  96 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              69  95  69  97 /  20   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              66  94  68  97 /  30  10  10  20
CLOUDCROFT              48  71  51  73 /  40  40  40  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   68  92  70  95 /  30  20  20  10
SILVER CITY             64  87  65  88 /  40  50  50  20
DEMING                  69  94  70  96 /  30  10  10   0
LORDSBURG               67  94  69  96 /  30  20  20  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      72  97  74  98 /  20   0   0   0
DELL CITY               68  96  71  97 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            71  98  74  98 /  10   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              71  93  71  95 /  20   0   0   0
FABENS                  70  98  73  98 /  20   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            70  96  72  97 /  20   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          69  95  70  97 /  20   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           67  94  69  97 /  20   0   0   0
HATCH                   67  94  69  97 /  20   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                70  94  71  97 /  30  10  10   0
OROGRANDE               70  95  71  97 /  20   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 55  81  57  82 /  40  40  40  30
MESCALERO               54  81  56  83 /  40  40  40  30
TIMBERON                55  81  58  82 /  40  40  40  30
WINSTON                 59  84  59  86 /  40  50  50  30
HILLSBORO               65  92  67  95 /  30  30  30  20
SPACEPORT               67  92  69  96 /  20  10  10   0
LAKE ROBERTS            58  85  59  87 /  50  50  50  30
HURLEY                  65  89  66  93 /  30  40  40  20
CLIFF                   60  92  61  93 /  40  40  40  30
MULE CREEK              59  91  60  93 /  40  40  40  30
FAYWOOD                 66  89  67  93 /  30  30  30  10
ANIMAS                  67  94  69  96 /  40  20  20  20
HACHITA                 68  93  68  97 /  30  20  20  10
ANTELOPE WELLS          66  90  67  94 /  30  20  20  10
CLOVERDALE              67  89  68  92 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/25 HARDIMAN


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.