Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 222119
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
319 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND KEEP SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS SEASONALLY WARM...DRY...AND BREEZY
EACH DAY. A PAIR OF PACIFIC DISTURBANCES WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH
KEEPING THE WINDS UP FOR ALL LOCATIONS AND PROVIDING VERY SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE GILA LATE SATURDAY AND AGAIN
ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE MOISTURE
RETURNS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. STORM CHANCES RETURN
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DIMINISH FOR FRIDAY...AND RETURN AGAIN FOR
THE NEXT WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER STRONG EAST PUSH OF MOISTURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING DEWPOINTS WERE STILL QUITE HIGH ACROSS ALL AREAS EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH WIND STILL EASTERLY. LOW CLOUDS
REMAINED BANKED UP AGAINST THE AREA MOUNTAINS...BUT FAIRLY RAPIDLY
ERODED AWAY AS WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND MIXING ENTRAINED DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION ALOFT. CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS THE DRY AIR ALOFT
OVER THE CWFA WITH A SWATH OF HIGH CLOUDS INBOUND FROM THE BAJA
FOR TONIGHT. AT LOWER LEVELS STILL SOME MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN
HALVES OF OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES WHERE AN AFTERNOON CU FIELD
HAS FORMED IN THE DAYTIME HEATING. THE MOISTURE IS SHALLOW SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY OF THESE TO BLOSSOM INTO T-STORMS IS MINIMAL...
BUT WE DO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR THOSE
AREA BETWEEN 6PM AND 9PM THIS EVENING. ALL OTHER AREAS ARE DRYING
TOO RAPIDLY TO GET ANY DEVELOPMENT...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
TEENS AND TWENTIES.

A SLOW MOVING PACIFIC TROUGH WILL KEEP OUR FETCH SOUTHWEST AND
ALLOW FOR WINDS TO STAY UP WITH DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER THE
RESULT THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST REGION. MODERATE WINDS ALOFT...AND LEE SURFACE TOUGHING
ALONG WITH DAILY MIXDOWN EXPLAINS THE WINDS WITH AFTERNOONS
REACHING INTO THE BREEZY AND POSSIBLY LOW-END WINDY CATEGORIES.
WITH LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING OVER AND NORTH OF OUR AREA TEMPERATURES
WILL BE KEPT MODERATE AND LIKELY A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...BUT STILL SOMEWHAT WARM WITH LOWLANDS MAXING IN THE MID
80S EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. WITH THE TROUGH ITSELF
PASSING TO OUR NORTH...AND MOISTURE BEING QUITE LIMITED...MOST OF
THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE MINOR CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTORMS OVER THE GILA REGION ON BOTH SATURDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOONS.

TUESDAY THE PACIFIC SYSTEM RACES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING OVER NEW MEXICO. WINDS WILL SLACKEN...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A GOOD BIT.
LOWLANDS MAY SEE LOWER 90S.

FOR WEDNESDAY THE MODELS ALL SHOW A PATTERN SHIFT THAT WILL HELP
TO REINTRODUCE THE DRYLINE...AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE...TO OUR
AREA. GULF MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN ON EASTERLY WINDS AND BRING BACK
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO BE IN PLACE FOR SOME
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO STRONG SHEAR AND
DEEP INSTABILITY. THIS MOISTURE LOOKS TO RESIDE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY TO GIVE TO KEEP THE CHANCES FOR STORMS ONGOING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THIS
MOIST PUSH AND ENHANCE STORM CHANCES.  CURRENT MODELS TEND TO
LEAN BACK TO DRIER WEATHER FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM PASSES EAST AND
BRINGS DRIER AIR BACK IN.

LOOKING LONGER RANGE...THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT WEEKEND BRINGS IN
ANOTHER STRONG WAVE OF MOISTURE FROM THE EAST. AGAIN WE WILL BRING
BACK CHANCES FOR STORMS FOR NEXT SAT AND SUN.

14-BIRD

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 23/00Z-24/00Z...
DRY WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PD WITH SOME INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS AND OCNL BREEZY SFC WINDS. SKY: FEW-SCT 050-070 120-140
SCT-BKN 200-250. WINDS 00-06Z SW15G25KTS AFT 06Z SW10KTS THEN AFT
18Z SSW 15G25KTS. OCNL MDT TURBC ONR MTNS BLOW 15K FT MSL.

20-NOVLAN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
YESTERDAY`S DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED EAST OUT OF THE AREA HOWEVER A
SLIGHT RISK OF A THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS. A MINOR DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERLIES WILL BRING ENOUGH
DRYING WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS TO ENHANCE THE DRYING AND BRING ZONE
111 RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE SPOTTY AND MOSTLY LIKELY
NOT MEET TIME CRITERION FOR THE GILA WILDERNESS TODAY. SOME MOISTURE
WILL RETURN SUNDAY TO MAINLY HUDSPETH COUNTY BRINGING A SLIGHT RISK
OF THUNDERSTORMS. SUNNY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVAIL
THOUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST AND AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST SHOULD BRING MORE MOISTURE
WEDNESDAY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.

20-NOVLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 59  83  57  84  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           61  84  52  81  53 /  10   0  10   0   0
LAS CRUCES              50  81  49  82  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              53  82  50  82  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              39  59  37  60  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   46  79  48  81  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             44  70  41  73  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  46  79  46  82  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               45  76  45  81  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      60  84  56  83  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               55  81  50  83  52 /  10   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            62  86  55  85  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              59  79  51  78  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  58  84  54  83  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            56  84  52  84  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          57  81  53  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           48  80  45  82  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   49  80  47  83  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                52  79  50  82  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               57  82  53  82  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 46  69  42  69  46 /  10   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               42  70  40  69  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                44  68  42  69  45 /  10   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 41  71  40  73  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               46  80  44  80  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               45  80  45  82  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            40  70  39  73  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  43  73  41  76  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   40  75  40  79  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              38  75  36  77  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 45  75  43  77  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  45  78  46  82  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 44  80  45  83  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          43  81  45  82  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              44  77  43  78  46 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ111.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/20




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