Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 141125
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
425 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEFORE A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AFTERWARDS ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN THE BORDERLAND FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE
ON THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUT AN END TO THE
REIGN OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN HOVERING OVER US THE
PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER IT WILL MOVE PASS US VERY QUICKLY AND
ANOTHER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP SOON AFTER BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN ANOTHER STRETCH OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BY MID WEEK.

MOVING ON TOWARDS THE END OF THIS WEEK A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OVER OUR REGION ON THURSDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS IN THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WILL BE IN THE BREEZY CATEGORY ALONG WITH
STRONGER WIND GUSTS. LOWLANDS WILL OBSERVE WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 20
MPH.

THE LONG TERM FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND KEEPS DISAGREEING
BETWEEN WET AND DRY CONDITIONS. GFS MODEL KEEPS GIVING A WET
SOLUTION WHILE THE ECMWF STAYS FAIRLY DRY. HOWEVER I`M KEEPING
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN AS BOTH MODELS STILL DEPICT A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALSO THE FRONT IS PUSHING A
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO THE REGION WHICH COULD RESULT IN
A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 14/00Z-15/00Z...
A WEAK DRY DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL DROP INTO NEW
MEXICO FROM THE NW SUNDAY NIGHT. NO SIG WX EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA
ATTM. STILL VFR CONDS EXPECTED P6SM SKC-FEW250 THRU PD. SFC WINDS
TIL 09Z SW-NW 5-10 KTS THEN NW-NE 6-12KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE OBSERVED DURING THE DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING A NORTHERLY WIND AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD THROUGH
THE REGION NEXT WEEK. MIN RH`S WILL BE DRY WITH READINGS FROM NEAR
10% TO THE TEENS IN THE LOWLANDS AND IN THE 20`S IN THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 76  39  72  40 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           74  37  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              74  36  71  34 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              73  35  69  36 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              52  27  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   73  36  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             70  34  68  34 /   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  76  33  71  32 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               74  31  71  31 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      76  40  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               76  33  71  32 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            77  38  73  38 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              73  39  69  39 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  76  37  72  36 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            75  36  71  36 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          74  38  71  39 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           74  31  70  31 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   75  35  71  34 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                76  35  72  33 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               75  40  71  40 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 65  36  62  37 /   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               63  29  60  30 /   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                63  35  59  37 /   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 68  32  66  33 /   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               73  33  70  33 /   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               74  34  70  33 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            70  24  68  24 /   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  71  32  69  32 /   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   74  24  71  24 /   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              74  22  71  22 /   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 73  33  69  33 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  76  34  74  34 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 76  31  72  30 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          75  34  71  32 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              74  35  72  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

CRESPO/BRICE


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