Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 250941
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
341 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWED BY WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARM DRY
WEATHER TO NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CAUSE BREEZY WINDS ON MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY COOLER NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN RISE ABOVE NORMAL LATER NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RATHER TRANQUIL ZONAL PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITE3D STATES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. STRONG NORTH
TO SOUTH ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH THE CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH SLOW MOVEMENT FURTHER EAST EXPECTED. BY LATE
AFTERNOON NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN
THE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND APPROACHING TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE WEST COAST. THUS FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS AS INITIALLY WEAK LEE SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE ON SUNDAY. SUSTAINED
WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE TRANSPORT OF WARM AIR CAUSING
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO ADVECT INTO THE AREA SO
EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THIS WEEKEND.

ON MONDAY UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WITH
WESTERLY GRADIENTS INCREASING ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS. THIS WILL SUPPORT BREEZY CONDITIONS MOST AREAS. AFTER THE
TROUGH PASSES TO THE EAST A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE CWA WITH EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ADVECTING COOLER
AIR. TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONSEQUENTLY COOL AROUND 5 TO
10 DEGREES OR TO NEAR NORMAL. BY THURSDAY ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WITH FLOW SUBSEQUENTLY
BECOMING INCREASINGLY ZONAL AHEAD OF NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS
PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN WARM ABOVE
NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. GFS ACTUALLY FORECASTS
PRECIP OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO UPPER WAVE
PASSAGE OVER LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH
DRY OUTLOOK UNTIL MODELS SHOW MORE CONSISTENCE WITH EXTENDED
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 25/12Z-26/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO CLOUDS BELOW 10,000 FEET AGL MOST LOCATIONS.
WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY
FOLLOWED BY WESTERLY WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL
WILL BRING WARM DRY WEATHER TO NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOWEST AFTERNOON HUMIDITY AROUND 25 TO 35 PERCENT TODAY
AND SUNDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 MPH TODAY
INCREASING AND AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH ON SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WITH A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CAUSE BREEZY WINDS ON MONDAY WITH WIND GUSTS
AROUND 30 MPH. COOLER NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LIGHTER WINDS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN RISE
ABOVE NORMAL LATER NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 83  57  86  60  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           78  53  84  55  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              80  52  84  53  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              80  52  83  54  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              69  40  70  42  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   78  53  83  53  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             77  51  79  50  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  81  50  85  50  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               81  51  84  50  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      82  58  87  59  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               80  49  85  50  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            83  54  88  56  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              81  54  83  56  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  84  51  87  55  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            81  54  85  55  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          79  55  83  56  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           80  45  83  45  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   79  48  83  49  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                80  54  84  55  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               80  55  84  56  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 75  44  77  47  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               75  42  78  43  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                74  42  76  44  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 75  46  74  45  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               78  51  80  50  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               78  48  83  48  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            76  46  73  45  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  80  51  81  48  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   82  41  82  43  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              80  38  81  39  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 77  51  80  50  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  83  53  86  51  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 81  52  85  50  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          84  52  86  49  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              85  53  87  51  80 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH




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