Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 230919
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
319 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AND WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS
AND WARMING DAY TIME TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY THAT WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
FRIDAY WITH A DRY AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED. OTHER THAN A
FEW CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TODAY AND FRIDAY
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES AND NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT NO FREEZING
TEMPERATURES YET FOR THE DESERT LOWLANDS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST BY LATE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INLAND FROM THE NORTHWEST COAST. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AFTERNOON BREEZES TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH THIN CLOUDS EXPECTED.

THE TROUGH WILL OPEN UP AND PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED. WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AS
THE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ON THE WEST COAST AND A
LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL PLACE NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW THAT WILL KEEP LOCAL
WEATHER CONDITIONS DRY AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURE WISE. LONG RANGE
MODELS PROJECT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY
THAT WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES FURTHER FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 23/12Z - 24/12Z...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AREA WIDE THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. SKY CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM
SKC TO FEW 050 IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND AND THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST ALLOWING A DRIER AND WARMER
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND SOME BREEZY AFTERNOONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MIN RH
WILL RUN IN THE 45% TO 55% RANGE ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY DROPPING
ABOUT 10% OVERALL ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 79  55  82  56  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           77  50  79  52  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              78  50  80  52  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              78  49  81  51  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              63  37  66  40  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   76  52  79  53  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             72  48  76  49  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  78  46  81  49  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               79  48  81  49  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      79  56  82  58  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               77  46  81  47  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            80  54  84  55  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              74  52  79  54  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  80  50  83  51  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            78  53  81  54  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          77  53  80  55  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           78  41  81  43  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   77  46  80  48  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                78  52  80  53  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               77  53  81  55  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 68  43  73  46  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               70  39  73  43  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                68  39  71  43  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 73  44  74  48  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               74  48  77  52  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               77  47  80  49  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            73  44  75  45  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  74  48  78  49  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   78  42  81  42  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              75  36  80  37  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 73  49  77  50  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  81  50  83  52  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 80  45  81  48  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          81  45  84  48  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              80  49  83  52  85 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/04





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