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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 191003
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
403 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
REGION TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR OVER AREAS FROM THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH BEST
CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 100
THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR THE
DESERT LOWLANDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND NEAR
100 DEGREES FOR THE LOWLANDS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CURRENT HOT AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TODAY. A DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO WORK AGAINST ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIMITED MOISTURE MAKING IT AS FAR WEST AS THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT THAT MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
TO OCCUR THIS EVENING. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY.
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH
THESE STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AND
HOT TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 100 DEGREES FOR MOST LOWLAND
AREAS.

THE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY AS A
PORTION OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL
AREA AND WEAKENS THE FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW A MORE MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
AND EAST. AS RESULT...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
FREQUENCY OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SPOTTY
WITH A FEW AREAS RECEIVING MODERATE RAINFALL. BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND LOWLAND AREAS
GENERALLY EAST OF DIVIDE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT
OVER LOWLAND LOCATIONS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
HOVERING AROUND 100 DEGREES. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS PATTERN
WILL PERSIST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVENTUALLY BRING SOME
RAIN TO ALL AREAS OVER THE FOUR DAY PERIOD.

THE OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEK LOOKS SIMILAR BUT THE FLOW PATTERN WILL
BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN. SOME MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPED UNDER THE
HIGH. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED. LONG RANGE MODELS
PROJECT THAT HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY DRIFT NORTHWARD...PUTTING THE
AREA UNDER AN EASTERLY FLOW THAT WILL KEEP A WARM SUMMER TIME
PATTERN OF WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN
PLACE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 19/12Z-20/12Z...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH VALID PD. SOME ISOLD
T-STORMS AFT 18Z...MAINLY EAST OF THE RIVER AND THE MOUNTAINS.
STORMS MAY BECOME WIDESPREAD IN THE EVENING BUT WILL REMAIN EAST
OF A KDMN-KTCS LINE. WINDS 220-240/10-20G25KT ARE EXPECTED AFT 17Z
ALL AREAS. LGT OCNL MDT TURBC SFC-080 ALG AND EAST IMMEDIATELY
EAST OF AREA MOUNTAINS AFT 15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR FOR ALL AREAS STARTING ROUGHLY MID DAY.
GUSTS MAY REACH INTO THE LOW 30 MPH RANGE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITH FAVORED EXPOSURE. STORM ACTIVITY FOR TODAY...EXPECT ISOLATED
COVERAGE OVER HUDSPETH AND EASTERN OTERO COUNTIES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FURTHER WEST TO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY MAY OCCUR IN THE EVENING. COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ISOLATED WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN
THREATS.

THROUGH THE WEEK...THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY
SOUTH OF US...WILL SLOWLY RECENTER ITSELF TO OUR SOUTHEAST JUST
SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND. THIS WILL ALLOW CIRCULATION AROUND ITS
WESTERN PERIPHERY...TO ADVECT MEAGER AMOUNTS OF MONSOON DRIVEN
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH...BEGINNING LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR ISOLATED MOUNTAIN ACTIVITY FOR THE GILA
REGION AND SACS STARTING THURSDAY AS A RESULT.  STORMS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASING IN COVERAGE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

LOWLAND MIN RH TODAY WILL RANGE SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...TO NEAR 20% EAST. LOWER TEENS TO 20% ARE IN STORE
FOR AREA MOUNTAINS. VALUES CLIMB ROUGHLY ANOTHER 5-12% ALL AREAS
THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER 3-5% FRIDAY

HAINES INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 5-6 TODAY...WITH 6 EXPECTED FOR
THE GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. CAPITAN MOUNTAINS WILL
LIKELY SEE 5. VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO 4-5 THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY THIS WEEKEND...AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                102  76 100  76 100 /   0  10  20  20  20
SIERRA BLANCA          100  72  97  72  98 /  20  20  20  20  20
LAS CRUCES             101  71  99  72 100 /   0  10  10  10  20
ALAMOGORDO             101  72  98  69  98 /   0  10  20  20  20
CLOUDCROFT              81  52  77  52  77 /  20  20  30  20  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES  101  74  98  74  98 /   0   0  10  10  20
SILVER CITY             94  63  92  63  93 /   0   0  10  20  20
DEMING                 101  68 100  68  99 /   0   0  10  10  20
LORDSBURG              100  66  98  68  99 /   0   0  10  10  20
WEST EL PASO METRO     102  77  99  79 100 /  10  10  10  20  20
DELL CITY              100  67  97  66  98 /  20  20  20  20  20
FORT HANCOCK           105  74 104  76 104 /  10  20  20  20  20
LOMA LINDA              95  66  91  65  92 /  10  20  20  20  20
FABENS                 103  72 102  73 101 /  10  10  20  10  20
SANTA TERESA           100  73  99  75 100 /  10  10  10  10  20
WHITE SANDS HQ         100  72  97  73  98 /   0  10  10  10  20
JORNADA RANGE          100  66  98  66  99 /   0  10  10  10  20
HATCH                   97  70  95  70  96 /   0  10  10  10  20
COLUMBUS               101  72  99  71 100 /   0   0  10  10  20
OROGRANDE              101  72  99  71 100 /   0  10  10  20  20
MAYHILL                 86  59  84  60  82 /  20  20  30  30  30
MESCALERO               88  56  87  56  87 /  20  20  30  20  30
TIMBERON                85  56  83  56  83 /  10  20  20  20  30
WINSTON                 92  58  89  58  88 /   0   0  10  20  20
HILLSBORO               95  65  92  67  93 /   0   0  10  10  20
SPACEPORT               99  68  97  68  98 /   0  10  10  10  20
LAKE ROBERTS            92  58  91  60  90 /   0   0  10  20  20
HURLEY                  96  65  93  65  94 /   0   0  10  10  20
CLIFF                   97  61  97  62  97 /   0   0  10  20  20
MULE CREEK              97  48  95  50  97 /   0   0   0  10  20
FAYWOOD                 95  65  93  65  93 /   0   0  10  10  20
ANIMAS                 101  67  98  68  99 /   0   0  10  10  20
HACHITA                101  68  99  68  99 /   0   0  10  10  20
ANTELOPE WELLS         102  70 100  70 101 /   0   0  10  10  20
CLOVERDALE              97  68  93  68  95 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/04