Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 202205
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
301 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON TAP FOR THE BORDERLAND
THIS WEEKEND LEADING INTO THANKSGIVING. A SMALL UPPER LOW DOES
TRAVEL ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MEXICO FRIDAY EVENING...GIVING THE AREA A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS. THIS
FEATURE RAPIDLY DEPARTS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. MODERATE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK TO NORMAL BY
THANKSGIVING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY QUIET WEEK AHEAD FOR THE BORDERLAND. PATTERN ON THE WHOLE
REMAINS SOMEWHAT ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE WITH SEVERAL WEAKER
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH. FIRST SHORT WAVE MOVED ACROSS THE CWA
LATE LAST NIGHT AND IS NOW EAST OF THE AREA. SECOND WAVE IS OVER
EASTERN ARIZONA AND WILL BE THROUGH NEW MEXICO BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH THIS
FEATURE. THIRD WAVE CURRENTLY OVER NRN CALIFORNIA WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST AND BECOME A CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTH OF TUCSON FRIDAY
EVENING. MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT FRIDAY
AND BY EVENING SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP. SYSTEM IS WARM SO EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO GET NO LOWER THAN
7500-8000 FT. LATEST RUNS OF NAM/GFS BRING LOW CENTER EVEN A BIT
FURTHER INTO NORTHERN MEXICO SO CHANCES LOOK EVEN LOWER NOW.

LOW QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF AREA SATURDAY MORNING AND USHERS IN A
PERIOD OF EXTENDED NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE. THIS
FLOW WILL INCREASE AFTERNOON WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY INTO WINDY
CATEGORY...WITH TEMPS REMAINING NEAR NORMAL. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN
TO FILTER IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL BE INLAND AND OVER
NEVADA AND ARIZONA...KEEPING OUR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES GOING AND
WARMING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. BY LATE THANKSGIVING
AFTERNOON/EVENING RIDGE MOVES OVER AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA IN
RESPONSE TO LARGE EASTERN PACIFIC LOW. PREVIOUS RUNS OF ECMWF WERE
COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS. THIS MORNING`S ECMWF
RUN...WHILE STILL SOMEWHAT OUT OF PHASE...AT LEAST APPROACHES THE
GFS...MEANING NO POST THANKSGIVING STORM OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 21/00Z - 22/00Z...
VFR THRU THE PD. SKY FEW-SCT250 THRU 15Z...THEN SCT-BKN150
BKN200-250. WINDS GENERALLY VARIABLE IN DIRECTION UNDER 10KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 7500-8000 FEET WITH RAIN BELOW 7500 FEET. PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH...WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WHICH COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR THE BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
AVERAGE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE
RISING INTO THE 20S FOR THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY DRIER AIR RETURNING
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 38  67  44  63  43 /   0   0  10   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           38  68  42  60  39 /   0   0  10  10   0
LAS CRUCES              34  66  40  61  38 /   0   0  10   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              34  64  40  60  39 /   0   0  10   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              29  49  31  46  31 /   0   0  20   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   31  61  37  61  35 /   0   0  10   0   0
SILVER CITY             35  59  39  56  32 /   0   0  20   0   0
DEMING                  32  66  36  62  36 /   0   0  20   0   0
LORDSBURG               31  66  34  60  32 /   0   0  20   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      39  65  45  61  44 /   0   0  10   0   0
DELL CITY               35  67  40  63  38 /   0   0  10  10   0
FORT HANCOCK            37  72  42  65  41 /   0   0  10   0   0
LOMA LINDA              40  65  45  58  39 /   0   0  10   0   0
FABENS                  37  68  41  63  39 /   0   0  10   0   0
SANTA TERESA            36  66  43  62  40 /   0   0  10   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          37  65  43  61  40 /   0   0  10   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           25  65  34  62  34 /   0   0  10   0   0
HATCH                   29  66  36  63  35 /   0   0  10   0   0
COLUMBUS                34  66  41  61  39 /   0   0  20   0   0
OROGRANDE               35  65  42  61  38 /   0   0  10   0   0
MAYHILL                 30  58  34  54  35 /   0   0  20   0   0
MESCALERO               30  57  34  53  32 /   0   0  20   0   0
TIMBERON                33  57  35  53  34 /   0   0  20   0   0
WINSTON                 29  58  34  56  31 /   0   0  20   0   0
HILLSBORO               35  62  39  60  36 /   0   0  20   0   0
SPACEPORT               30  64  35  62  33 /   0   0  10   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            31  58  33  55  30 /   0   0  20   0   0
HURLEY                  32  62  35  58  32 /   0   0  20   0   0
CLIFF                   20  63  30  60  28 /   0   0  20   0   0
MULE CREEK              17  63  27  59  23 /   0   0  20   0   0
FAYWOOD                 34  62  38  57  35 /   0   0  20   0   0
ANIMAS                  34  66  38  63  34 /   0   0  20   0   0
HACHITA                 32  66  36  62  35 /   0   0  20   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          36  68  38  63  36 /   0   0  20   0   0
CLOVERDALE              39  67  40  63  35 /   0   0  20   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

HEFNER/GRZYWACZ







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