Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 272004
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
204 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL HELP GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. A MOIST AIR
MASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRONGER STORMS. EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING ALONG DRAINAGES...ARROYOS AND LOW
WATER CROSSINGS. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION AS PART OF A WESTERLY FLOW EARLY THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED AREAS MAINLY
EAST OF EL PASO. LABOR DAY WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AND WARM. MOISTURE
MAY BEGIN RETURNING TO THE REGION NEXT WEEK WITH ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONE MORE PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK
EAST OUT OF UTAH AND INTO COLORADO. AT THE SAME TIME...ABUNDANT
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST
TEXAS. DYNAMIC FORCING FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL ACT ON THE MOISTURE
AND GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH EXCESSIVE RUNOFF POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG ARROYOS
AND SMALL STREAMS MAY OCCUR. LOW WATER CROSSINGS MAY BE AFFECTED.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST A WESTERLY FLOW
BEHIND IT WILL BRING IN A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS TO THE
AREA. THIS WILL HAVE THE AFFECT OF PUSHING THE MOISTURE PLUME MORE
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF AND DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT FOR AREAS WEST OF THE RIVER.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER OVER THE EAST AS MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY SLOWLY DECREASE. BY THURSDAY MORNING...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO MAINLY PORTIONS OF OTERO AND
HUDSPETH COUNTIES. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE
TO OCCUR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING OVER THOSE SAME AREAS. RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH COMPLETELY FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY TIME FRAME...BASICALLY THE WHOLE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST...KEEPING THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS THREE TO FIVE
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS. THE WESTERLY FLOW MAY
INTENSIFY ON SUNDAY WITH LIGHT AFTERNOON BREEZES POSSIBLE. THE
LABOR DAY HOLIDAY ALSO LOOKS DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES.

IN THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOK...THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN NEXT TUESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW MODEST AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO FUEL ISOLATED MOUNTAIN BASED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FLOWS INTO THE AREA
NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 28/00Z - 29/00Z...
P6SM SCT-BKN060-080 BKN150-200 THRU 06Z...THEN CLOUDS DECREASING TO
SKC-SCT080. ISOLD TO SCT 1-3SM TSRA BKN030-040 COVERAGE ALL AREAS
THRU 06Z...THEN ISOLD COVERAGE EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT W TO NW UNDER 12KTS EXCEPT GUSTY AND ERRATIC NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&


.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES OVER THE
NEXT DAY WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON THE BACK SIDE. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MAINLY FAR EAST ON THURSDAY. A DRY
WEEKEND EXPECTED AS WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER AREA AND WARMS
TEMPERATURES TO 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE FALLING FROM THE MID
20 TO MID 30S FOR THURSDAY INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE BY
SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 70  92  68  93  70 /  40  10   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           65  87  66  92  67 /  30  20  20   0   0
LAS CRUCES              65  91  64  93  65 /  30   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              62  91  61  92  62 /  40   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              49  67  50  72  51 /  50  20  10   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   63  88  64  91  65 /  20   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             60  82  58  86  59 /  20   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  63  92  64  93  65 /  30   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               63  90  64  93  65 /  20   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      70  93  68  94  69 /  40  10   0   0   0
DELL CITY               67  93  65  97  66 /  40  20  10   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            72  92  71  94  72 /  40  20  10   0   0
LOMA LINDA              68  86  66  88  67 /  40  20  10   0   0
FABENS                  70  92  69  97  70 /  40  20  10   0   0
SANTA TERESA            69  91  68  94  69 /  40   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          67  90  66  93  67 /  40   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           64  89  63  91  64 /  30   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   64  90  65  94  66 /  30   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                68  90  66  91  67 /  30   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               67  92  66  93  67 /  40  10   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 56  76  56  80  57 /  40  30  10   0   0
MESCALERO               55  78  55  83  56 /  50  20  10   0   0
TIMBERON                56  77  56  80  57 /  50  20  10   0   0
WINSTON                 56  79  56  79  57 /  30   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               60  86  62  86  63 /  20   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               64  89  64  89  65 /  30   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            56  82  57  84  58 /  30   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  61  88  61  89  62 /  20   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   59  88  59  89  60 /  20   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              52  83  54  86  55 /  20   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 59  83  59  85  60 /  30   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  64  90  65  93  66 /  20   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 63  91  63  93  64 /  30   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          61  90  61  93  62 /  30   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              60  86  61  88  62 /  30   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/26 LUNDEEN/GRZYWACZ




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.