Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 172141
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
341 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
HEAVY RAIN WITH A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAIN AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
LIKELY WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE 5 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR THE
MOUNTAIN REGIONS. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE ON FRIDAY AS THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. ISOLATED LOWLAND AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
REGION HAS ALREADY EXPERIENCED TWO NIGHTS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE APPROACHED THE AREA. NOW THE
REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM HAS MADE LANDFALL IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
AND IS ON A EAST TO NORTHEAST TRACK THAT WILL TAKE THE SYSTEM
SLOWLY THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO BY
TOMORROW MORNING. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE WILL
FUEL WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

ODILE`S TRACK WILL TAKE IT DIRECTLY OVER THE GILA REGION BY
EARLY THURSDAY. THIS IS THE AREA THAT IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE
GREATEST AMOUNT OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS MUCH AS 5
INCHES OF RAIN MAY OCCUR IN THE AREA WITH FLASH FLOODING LIKELY.
OTHER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO MAY GET AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4
INCHES OF RAIN WITH GRANT...SIERRA AND NORTHERN OTERO COUNTY
SEEING THAT THE HIGHER END OF THOSE RAIN ESTIMATES. AREAS ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INCLUDING FAR WEST TEXAS WILL SEE
GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAIN
ESTIMATES ASIDE...THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS
RAINFALL...SO MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL BECOME RUN OFF QUITE QUICKLY
WITH LITTLE ABSORPTION BY THE GROUND. THERE IS A CONTINUED
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR BURN SCARS...LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND
POORLY DRAINED LOW LYING AREAS.

THE EXPECTED HEAVY RAINS IN THE GILA REGION WILL CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WATER LEVELS IN THE GILA RIVER. THE GILA
RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT GILA...REDROCK AND
VIRDEN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RIVER LEVELS SHOULD PEAK AND BEGIN
TO DROP BY LATE EVENING AFTER THE RAINS LIGHTEN UP.

THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL EXIT THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
WITH HEAVY RAINS TAPERING OFF AND DIMINISHING. LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL STILL REMAIN TO FUEL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND
SHOWERS...THAT WILL GENERALLY PRODUCE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE RAINFALL. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE AND BLOCKS ANY MECHANISM
FOR PUSHING OUT THE MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE HIGH. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND AND MAY HELP
ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT SHOULD PLAY A
STABILIZING ROLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS.

IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE EXPECTING
THE HIGH ALOFT TO REFORM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW A DRY WESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THAT WILL
HELP FLUSH MOISTURE OUT OF THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
DRIER WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.


&&

AVIATION...VALID 18/00Z - 19/00Z...
THE CORE COMPRISING THE REMNANTS OF NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ODILE...WILL MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NM THIS
EVENING FROM SE AZ.  THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH ISOLD -TSRA/VIS 3SM/CIGS 020-040 THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTSIDE STORMS EXPECT LGT TURBC AND CLOUDS FEW005-015 SCT-BKN020-040
OVC050-080 THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHWRS WILL LWR VSBY TO 3-5SM.  CIGS
TO 005 NEAR MTNS OVER LOWLANDS.  LOOK FOR LIFR BKN MTN OBSCURATIONS
OVER GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO MTNS.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH 11Z...BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 7-11 KTS ALL AREAS
THEREAFTER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...FLOOD WATCH FOR THE GILA RIVER WILL GO INTO EFFECT 6 AM MDT
THURSDAY...AND REMAIN VALID THROUGH 6 PM MDT FRIDAY...

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...

REMNANTS OF NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION ODILE...WILL MOVE OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NM THIS EVENING FROM SE AZ AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW.  THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR
MAINLY SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT...THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING.  BULK OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL IMPACT THE GILA REGION FROM
ROUGHLY 5 PM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 5 PM THURSDAY....WITH UP TO 2-3 INCHES
OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...AS DISTURBANCE
EXITS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST.  THIS WILL ALLOW SKIES TO START
CLEARING FOR MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING.  ABUNDANT MOISTURE LEFT IN
THE WAKE OF ODILE REMNANTS HOWEVER...WILL ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED-SCATTERED STORMS ALL AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  WEEKEND
WEATHER WILL RETURN TO MORE OF A NORMAL MONSOONAL PATTERN.  HOWEVER
STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT BRINGS RELATIVELY DRIER MORE
STABLE AIR INTO NM FROM THE NORTHEAST.

LATER NEXT WEEK...A MUCH LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES.  DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE...SHOULD PREVENT KEEP DEEP MOISTURE AT BAY TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 66  82  68  86  68 /  90  90  50  30  30
SIERRA BLANCA           63  78  62  81  66 /  70  80  40  30  30
LAS CRUCES              63  77  64  84  65 / 100  90  50  20  30
ALAMOGORDO              64  78  64  85  65 / 100 100  80  30  30
CLOUDCROFT              49  58  49  65  48 / 100 100 100  50  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   63  75  63  84  65 / 100 100  70  20  20
SILVER CITY             59  69  59  80  61 / 100 100  70  30  20
DEMING                  63  78  62  85  63 / 100  90  50  20  30
LORDSBURG               64  74  62  85  63 / 100  90  60  30  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      66  82  67  85  68 /  90  90  50  30  30
DELL CITY               64  82  63  86  65 /  70  80  60  40  30
FORT HANCOCK            66  84  66  87  69 /  70  80  40  30  20
LOMA LINDA              61  75  63  79  65 /  90  90  50  30  30
FABENS                  66  82  66  87  67 /  90  90  50  30  30
SANTA TERESA            65  81  66  84  66 /  90  90  40  30  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          64  78  64  83  65 / 100 100  60  30  30
JORNADA RANGE           61  78  61  83  62 / 100  90  60  30  30
HATCH                   63  76  61  82  63 / 100 100  60  20  20
COLUMBUS                65  80  64  85  65 / 100  80  50  20  30
OROGRANDE               65  77  65  85  66 /  90 100  70  30  30
MAYHILL                 53  66  55  72  55 / 100 100 100  50  40
MESCALERO               55  67  55  74  56 / 100 100 100  50  40
TIMBERON                52  66  54  72  54 / 100 100  90  40  40
WINSTON                 55  66  56  75  57 / 100 100  80  40  30
HILLSBORO               59  70  60  79  61 / 100 100  70  30  20
SPACEPORT               61  75  61  82  63 / 100 100  70  20  30
LAKE ROBERTS            55  69  57  81  57 / 100 100  70  40  30
HURLEY                  61  71  61  82  62 / 100 100  70  20  30
CLIFF                   56  71  56  82  55 / 100 100  70  40  30
MULE CREEK              55  69  52  81  52 / 100 100  70  30  30
FAYWOOD                 60  71  61  81  62 / 100 100  70  20  30
ANIMAS                  64  77  63  85  64 / 100  80  60  30  30
HACHITA                 61  78  61  86  63 / 100  80  60  20  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          61  80  60  84  62 / 100  80  50  30  30
CLOVERDALE              59  75  60  82  60 / 100  80  60  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NMZ401>417.

FLOOD WATCH FOR POTENTIAL GILA RIVER FLOODING FROM THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR NMZ401-402-404.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

04/22 LUNDEEN/TRIPOLI





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