Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 300919
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
319 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT RECORD WARMTH AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE
BORDERLAND FOR THE WEEKEND WILL MOVE AWAY AS A PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE IS ON THE
INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE. LATER TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY THE REGION WILL SEE ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY PASSES. IT APPEARS MOST
LOCATIONS WILL STAY DRY AND THOSE THAT GET RAIN PROBABLY WON`T GET
A LOT. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY A DRY WESTERLY WEATHER PATTERN SETS
BACK UP. THIS WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY LOOK COOLER AS A COLD FRONT MOVES. EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT NEXT WEEKEND WILL SEE MORE CLOUDS...BUT
LIKELY REMAIN DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING. IT
WON`T HAVE MUCH IMPACT...JUST A WEAK BIT OF COOLING...BUT IT WILL
WASH OUT THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EAST AND
THE FETCH ALOFT IS NOW SW. THIS HAS ALLOWED A NICE SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE CONNECTION ALOFT OFF THE FRONT SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW
SPINNING WELL OFF THE BAJA TO OUR SW. RESULT IS PLENTY OF HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS LOW IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF BEGINNING A SLOW EASTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE BAJA AND THE
MODELS INDICATE IT WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY. MODELS...IN
AGREEMENT...WITH KEEPING THE PCPN POTENTIAL LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM
PASSAGE.

FOR TODAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER...LESSER BREEZES...PLENTY OF CLOUDS.
VERY SLIGHT CHANCES OF ANY PCPN. MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE ON
WHERE ANY PCPN WILL FALL...BUT THEY ALL SEEM TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
LATE AFTN/EVENING HOURS TO START IT. PW`S AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS DO
COME UP A FAIR AMOUNT WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THE LOW LEVELS NEVER
REALLY DO MOISTEN UP. THIS KEEPS THE INSTABILITY MINIMAL. THUS
PCPN COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED...AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN MORE SO.
THUS POPS IN THE ISOLATED RANGE. THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED IN THE
MODELS AND THUS POPS ARE EXTENDED INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...DUE
MAINLY TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING INSTABILITY.

THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND A DEEP ZONAL PATTERN
QUICKLY TAKES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA
UNDER A DEEP DRY AND WARM WESTERLY FLOW. DEEP MIXING WITH TIGHTER
GRADIENTS AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT COMBINED WITH LEE SURFACE
TROUGHING WILL MAKE FOR STRONGER SURFACE WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR. BREEZY WEDNESDAY AND WINDY THURSDAY.
WE`LL HAVE TO WATCH THURSDAY FOR THE FIRST DUST OF THE YEAR.

FRIDAY WINDS LOOK TO SHUT DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PUSHES A BACKDOOR FRONT TOWARD THE REGION.
THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE IN FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER ON
IT`S STRENGTH AND EFFECTS. GFS LOOKS TO BE OVERDOING IT WITH
STRONG PUSH AND COLD AIR...GIVEN THE UPPER PATTERN NOT REAL
CONDUCIVE. GFS ALSO SHOWS PCPN WITH THIS FRONT AND AN UPPER
TROUGH. THE ECMWF IS DRY AND LOOKS MORE REALISTIC. THUS THE
FORECAST IS FOR THE DRY SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND SEASONAL TO WARM WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 30/12Z-01/12Z...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
FLATTEN AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. A SLOW APPROACHING PACIFIC
TROUGH WILL TURNS WINDS SOUTHWEST AND ALLOW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
TO STREAM OVER THE REGION. ISOLATED HIGH BASED MOUNTAIN -TSRA/CIGS
080-100/WND VRB25G40KT ARE PSBLE AFT 19Z TODAY. WINDS SHOULD FAVOR
EAST THIS MORNING BEHIND A WEAK FRONT FROM THE EAST AND THEN FLIP
BACK WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHED IN FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
A SHORT SHIFT TO LIGHT ENE-E WINDS UNDER 15 MPH THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES...CONTINUES TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SUB TROPICAL JET STREAM TO
RESTRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THE FLOW WILL
OPEN US UP TO A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...GENERATING HIGH BASED CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING LOOK FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD OVER THE
LOWLANDS. DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THE CONVECTION.

THREAT SHIFTS TO DEVELOPMENT OF CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...AS THE PACIFIC JET STREAM DROPS SOUTHWARD
AND STRENGTHENS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS LATER IN THE WEEK.  THIS IS
AHEAD OF A WEAK MID LATITUDE TROUGH DUE IN FOR THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AT THAT TIME.

HIGHS WILL RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK.  MIN RH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 10% SOUTH
CENTRAL/SW DESERTS...TO MIDDLE-UPPER 20S FOR THE SACS AND EASTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTY.  VALUES SHOULD FALL ANOTHER 5-8 PERCENT WED-FRI ALL
AREAS UNDER THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD BE
THURSDAY...WHERE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. MIXING
HEIGHTS SHOULD RANGE FROM 12000-17000 FT.  LOOK FOR GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VENT RATES MONDAY...BECOMING FAIR TO POOR OVER TULAROSA
BASIN AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT RATES ARE
FORECAST ALL AREAS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 84  57  81  55  84 /   0  10  20   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           80  52  75  48  81 /   0  10  20   0   0
LAS CRUCES              83  50  79  48  83 /   0  10  10   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              82  48  79  48  83 /   0  10   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              60  41  58  38  61 /  20  20  20   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   80  50  79  50  81 /   0  10   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             75  48  72  45  75 /  10  10   0   0   0
DEMING                  84  49  80  47  83 /   0  10   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               83  47  79  44  81 /   0  10   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      84  57  79  55  84 /   0  10  20   0   0
DELL CITY               80  50  81  47  84 /   0  10  20   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            82  54  80  51  85 /   0  10  20   0   0
LOMA LINDA              80  54  74  52  80 /   0  10  20   0   0
FABENS                  83  55  80  51  84 /   0  10  20   0   0
SANTA TERESA            84  53  80  51  84 /   0  10  20   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          83  54  78  53  82 /   0  10  10   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           83  46  79  44  82 /   0  10  10   0   0
HATCH                   83  49  80  47  83 /   0  10  10   0   0
COLUMBUS                84  53  79  50  83 /   0  10  10   0   0
OROGRANDE               83  52  78  51  83 /   0  10  10   0   0
MAYHILL                 69  46  66  45  71 /  10  20  10   0   0
MESCALERO               69  42  67  41  71 /  10  10  10   0   0
TIMBERON                70  44  66  43  70 /  10  10  20   0   0
WINSTON                 72  42  73  42  75 /  10  10   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               79  49  76  46  79 /  10  10  10   0   0
SPACEPORT               82  46  80  44  82 /   0  10  10   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            72  43  71  41  72 /  10  10  10   0   0
HURLEY                  78  48  74  46  77 /  10  10   0   0   0
CLIFF                   79  43  78  38  80 /  10  10   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              78  40  78  35  79 /  10  10   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 78  49  76  46  78 /  10  10  10   0   0
ANIMAS                  82  51  78  47  82 /  10  10   0   0   0
HACHITA                 84  50  80  45  83 /   0  10   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          82  48  78  45  82 /  10  10   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              80  48  76  45  79 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/99




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