Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 282126
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
226 PM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY AND QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL COOL DOWN TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
FLATTENS OUT INTO A WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE STATE. WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND.
MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WITH DAY TIME HEATING WILL RESULT
IN SOME AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF AREA MOUNTAINS BOTH DAYS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD BUT STILL CHILLY.

ON MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...WEAKENING THE WESTERLY FLOW. AT THE SAME TIME A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE PLAINS AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY LATE
TUESDAY THE FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND SKIES
WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS PACIFIC MOISTURE IS
STREAMED OVER THE AREA.

DEEPER MOISTURE STREAMING OUT AHEAD OF A WEAKENING PACIFIC TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF HIGH ELEVATION SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN A LITTLE TOO DRY FOR ANY REALISTIC CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
THE LOWLANDS ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
FROM MAINLY HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BEGIN
TO AFFECT THE AREA NEXT FRIDAY...THOUGH MODELS REMAIN UNCERTAIN ON
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. CHANCES FOR PRECIP
OVERALL REMAIN SLIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 29/00Z - 30/00Z...
VFR WITH P6SM SKC THRU PD. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY UNDER 10KTS THRU
18Z WITH A SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTERWARD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF MILD AFTERNOONS FOLLOWED BY CHILLY
OVERNIGHT TEMPS WITH DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE. IN ADDITION
WESTERLY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT BUT WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. SO DESPITE MIN RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 10
TO 15 PERCENT RANGE...RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL NOT BE APPROACHED. AT
THE SAME TIME VENT RATES WILL WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TRANSPORT
WIND SPEEDS AS MIXING HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW. THE END RESULT
WILL BE POOR VENT RATES CLOSER TO THE RIO GRAND AND FAIR TO
SOMETIMES GOOD ELSEWHERE. BY MONDAY A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE WITH A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN TEMPS AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER MIN RH
VALUES FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL BRING ABOUT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GILA. HOWEVER IT STILL
APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE WITHOUT ANY WETTING
PRECIPITATION UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 39  73  42  72  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           35  70  39  68  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              35  71  37  70  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              36  71  38  71  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              36  56  36  55  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   35  70  36  69  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             36  65  36  62  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  32  72  33  71  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               33  72  34  70  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      40  72  42  70  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               33  72  37  71  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            34  74  38  72  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              36  67  41  66  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  34  74  38  72  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            35  71  38  70  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          38  71  41  70  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           30  70  33  69  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   32  72  35  71  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                35  71  37  71  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               36  71  39  70  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 37  65  38  63  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               34  62  35  63  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                33  60  36  60  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 32  65  33  62  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               37  68  38  66  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               30  69  33  69  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            34  64  33  61  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  33  67  34  64  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   33  70  31  67  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              28  69  27  65  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 35  67  37  64  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  33  74  35  72  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 31  73  34  71  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          35  73  34  71  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              36  71  36  69  34 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/26 LUNDEEN/LANEY




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