Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 300844
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
244 AM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
We`ve got summer monsoon moisture over the Southwestern U.S. but
most of it is over Arizona. For the Borderland we have fairly
meager moisture but still enough to see scattered mountain and
isolated lowland showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon
and evening hours. Temperatures will remain seasonally warm, but
with increased clouds and moisture highs should remain in the 90s
across the lowlands this afternoon, and through all of next week.
Rain and storm chances look to increase for all areas next week
as the upper ridge weakens and allows better monsoon moisture
to move in over the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Model solutions have been pretty steady over the past several
days with high pressure aloft centered to our NW and slowly easing
to our east during the course of the next 45-60 hrs. For the
short-term periods this means more of what we saw yesterday for
the region. Monsoon moisture is present in the Southwest U.S. but
it focused over AZ. Our area has a more meager amount which is
skewed west of the Rio, with drier air over the eastern half of
our forecast area. We look void of any upper disturbances today so
daytime heating resulting in orographic flow will focus early
afternoon storm development over the area mountains. We expect
more activity over western mountains than eastern mountains.
Outflow boundaries and storms moving out of the mountains will
give the lowlands late aftn/evening rain/storms. Better chances
and thus higher probabilities of rain/storms for areas west of
Rio.

For the weekend, and all of next week, we expect warm daytime
highs a few degrees above normal, but certainly cooler than the
100 degree weather we just endured. Moisture will be adequate
enough again Sunday, and even slightly increased, for scattered
mountain thunderstorms and generally isolated lowland
thunderstorms. Again storm potential will be better over the
western and northern lowland zones vs. the southern and eastern
lowland zones across our forecast area.

Beyond Sunday and through the rest of the forecast cycle we should
see some moisture gains as the upper high pressure system focuses
east over the Southern Plains and eastward. This will allow a deep
southerly flow over the area and focus a monsoonal moisture
channel over S NM and Far W TX out of Mexico. In addition, models
indicate a Pacific trough to press east and help to shove the AZ
moisture back east over our region after Wednesday. Thus we will
see good moisture gains and deeper and stronger instability from
Monday, onward. We should see increased storm development with
this weather pattern. POPs will be a bit more uniform across the
forecast area as opposed to the west bias of the next couple of
days. Rain and storm chances will be increased for much of the
week as we keep PWs between 1.00-1.25". in a steady monsoon flow
regime with weaker of high pressure aloft to help provide better
instability.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 30/12Z-31/12Z.
More scattered thunderstorms will affect the Sacramento mountains,
Gila Region, and areas west of the Rio Grande this afternoon and
evening. Drier conditions will prevail near/east of the Rio
Grande. VFR conditions all terminals through the period. Skies
will vary from FEW-SCT100 SCT-BKN250 for LRU and ELP...to SCT-
BKN100 BKN-OVC180 for DNM...to SCT-BKN070 BKN120 OVC250 ovr TCS
w/ ISOLD-SCT TSRA. Tempo drops in VSBY to 1 mi. in Rain/dust for
TCS and DMN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Moisture will continue to improve over then next few days with
overall better thunderstorm chances. Even still, western areas
will be greatly favored over the east through about Tuesday. Many
areas in the Gila could see over an inch of rain between today and
Monday. After Tuesday the monsoon moisture plume shifts east and
allows for better rain/storm chances and better areal coverage for
locations east of the Rio Grande.

Temperatures will be trending down slightly due to the increased
moisture and expected extra afternoon cloud cover. Dewpoints up
and temperatures down will mean higher RH vales with increased
overnight/morning recoveries.

Winds will remain light through the period, generally E to SE in the
lowlands.  In the higher elevations, winds will be more terrain-
driven during the overnight and morning hours, then largely
influenced by thunderstorm outflow in the afternoons/evenings.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 97  74  96  74 /   0   0  10  20
Sierra Blanca           91  70  93  71 /  10   0  20  20
Las Cruces              94  70  95  70 /   0  10  20  30
Alamogordo              94  71  95  71 /  20  10  40  30
Cloudcroft              72  54  73  55 /  40  10  40  20
Truth or Consequences   95  71  93  71 /  20  30  30  40
Silver City             90  64  88  63 /  40  40  40  40
Deming                  96  71  95  70 /  10  20  20  30
Lordsburg               94  67  91  68 /  20  30  40  40
West El Paso Metro      95  74  96  74 /   0   0  10  20
Dell City               95  69  96  69 /   0   0  20  20
Fort Hancock            96  73  97  73 /  10   0  20  20
Loma Linda              90  68  90  68 /   0   0  10  20
Fabens                  96  73  97  73 /   0   0  20  20
Santa Teresa            95  73  96  72 /   0   0  10  20
White Sands HQ          93  72  93  72 /  10  10  20  20
Jornada Range           95  68  96  68 /  10  10  20  30
Hatch                   96  70  96  69 /  10  20  30  30
Columbus                95  71  95  71 /   0  10  20  30
Orogrande               93  72  94  72 /  10   0  10  20
Mayhill                 80  57  81  58 /  40  10  40  20
Mescalero               81  57  83  57 /  40  10  40  20
Timberon                79  56  80  55 /  40  10  40  20
Winston                 87  59  86  60 /  40  40  40  40
Hillsboro               92  66  93  66 /  30  30  40  40
Spaceport               94  69  93  68 /  10  20  30  30
Lake Roberts            88  56  88  57 /  40  40  50  50
Hurley                  89  64  88  64 /  20  30  40  40
Cliff                   92  63  91  63 /  50  40  50  40
Mule Creek              90  59  88  59 /  50  40  50  50
Faywood                 91  65  90  65 /  20  30  40  40
Animas                  94  69  91  69 /  20  30  40  40
Hachita                 95  69  92  68 /  10  20  30  30
Antelope Wells          91  67  89  68 /  20  20  30  30
Cloverdale              87  64  84  64 /  30  30  40  40

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

14-BIRD



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