Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 301014
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
414 AM MDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry flow aloft will continue today. However much more moisture has
worked it`s way into the lower levels of the atmosphere, enough
so that there will be a slight risk of an isolated thunderstorm
this afternoon over much of the Borderland. The risk of
thunderstorms will be limited mostly to eastern fringes of
Hudspeth County. On Wednesday, the dryline moves in from the east
to really moisten up the lower levels of the atmosphere, so that
scattered thunderstorms are likely across the area. This pattern
will continue on Thursday also. By Friday into the weekend, the
high levels of moisture will decrease, though enough moisture will
continue to give us a slight chance of thunderstorms over the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Interesting weather picture this morning with several features to
look at. Aloft, an upper low over southern California will
continue to move east-southeast today toward New Mexico. WV
imagery shows possible short wave rotating out from the low over
eastern Arizona. Southern branch of the jet with tropical moisture
now well to our south. At the surface, a large outflow boundary
moved west across eastern New Mexico last night and this morning,
spawned from large thunderstorms over the Texas Panhandle and
north Texas. Judging from the low clouds formed in this damp, cool
air, the boundary likely hung up on our high terrain of our
eastern CWA. Low cloud base looks to be around 6000 ft MSL, so
only the eastern slopes of the Sac Mtns will see some low clouds.
Quick look at satellite fog product shows the low clouds already
pulling eastward away from the Sacs. Look at obs already shows
winds behind the outflow to have lost their east flow. Bottom linefor
today: though outflow boundary likely not much of a factor,
increased low level moisture from Sunday, along with the short
wave aloft could produce a few thunderstorms across much of the
area this afternoon. HRRR/NAM12 along with larger scale models all
showing some qpf over the CWA today. HRRR shows convective cells
developing over NM Bootheel by 18z and over much of the rest of
the CWA by 20Z.

Rest of forecast looks pretty much similar to older forecasts.
Upper low, perhaps a bit further south than previous forecasts,
moves across northern Mexico Wednesday to the Big Bend region of
Texas Thursday. This will produce slight cooling aloft, enough to
destabilize the atmosphere for Wed/Thur. Expect scattered
thunderstorms both days, though best chances will be east of the
Rio Grande Valley where deeper moisture lives. CAPES are
respectable (about 400-1000 j/kg) in the east also. Some storms
could become strong east of the Rio Grande Valley as decent shear
will exist. Storm speeds will be relatively slow, so some flooding
also possible in the east. PW`s even higher on Thursday but faster
storm motion may negate increase in flood potential.

Friday through the weekend...Deeper moisture (PW`s) will slowly
decrease but no flushing of low level moisture so isolated
thunderstorms are likely to continue, though most favorable over
the area mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...30/12Z-31/12Z.
Mostly VFR conds and W to SW winds between 5 to 15 kts will occur
through the area. The exception would be the occasional isolated
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening hours.
This will lead to VRB and gusty winds up to 40kts, SCT clouds down
to 8kft and diminished VIS to 4SM close to this activity.

.FIRE WEATHER...
An upper level trough is slowly moving into our area. This made a
change on the wind pattern that has moistened the lower levels of
the atmosphere faster than previously expected. Plus it will be
considerably hot in the afternoon which will lead to a chance for
showers and thunderstorms. However, this activity may not have much
precipitation with it which calls for dry lightning in the area
today. Rh`s will be in the teens for most of the week with the
exception of Tuesday, when rh`s will go below 10%. Winds will be
between 5 to 15 knots along with partly cloudy skies, warm
temperatures and a chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms
most of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 91  67  90  63 /  10  10   0   0
Sierra Blanca           89  62  88  59 /  10  10   0  10
Las Cruces              90  57  88  56 /  10  10   0   0
Alamogordo              89  59  89  58 /   0  10   0  10
Cloudcroft              67  38  68  37 /  10  10   0  10
Truth or Consequences   88  58  87  56 /   0  10   0   0
Silver City             83  50  81  47 /   0   0  10  10
Deming                  89  55  89  53 /  10  10   0   0
Lordsburg               89  52  88  54 /  10   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      91  67  89  63 /  10  10   0   0
Dell City               91  58  90  55 /  10  10   0  10
Fort Hancock            92  64  91  61 /  10  10   0  10
Loma Linda              87  59  84  56 /  10  10   0   0
Fabens                  90  63  91  59 /  10  10   0   0
Santa Teresa            90  61  89  59 /  10  10   0   0
White Sands HQ          88  60  88  62 /  10  10   0   0
Jornada Range           89  49  88  50 /  10  10   0   0
Hatch                   91  56  90  53 /   0  10   0   0
Columbus                90  59  88  58 /  10  10   0   0
Orogrande               89  60  89  58 /  10  10   0   0
Mayhill                 78  46  78  44 /  10  10   0  10
Mescalero               78  43  77  42 /  10  10   0  10
Timberon                75  41  74  41 /  10  10   0  10
Winston                 83  44  81  42 /   0  10   0   0
Hillsboro               88  53  85  51 /   0  10   0   0
Spaceport               88  49  87  49 /   0  10   0   0
Lake Roberts            85  40  85  38 /   0  10  10  10
Hurley                  85  51  83  47 /   0  10   0   0
Cliff                   86  40  87  43 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              86  38  85  40 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 87  50  84  49 /   0  10  10   0
Animas                  89  53  87  54 /  10   0   0   0
Hachita                 90  54  88  55 /  10   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          88  54  85  54 /  10   0   0   0
Cloverdale              84  50  80  49 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Hefner/Crespo


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