Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 171744
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1144 AM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 338 AM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Active weather pattern will continue through Tuesday, with very
little to no impacts expected. Mostly quiet weather for Sunday
with showers possible for northern portions of the forecast area.
A back door cold front will push in from the east late tonight and
early Monday morning. Scattered to widespread shower activity will
exist areawide through the day on Monday. Winds will be gusty
after the front passes through, especially for locations along
the western slopes of area mountains. Quiet weather and warming
temperatures return for the remainder of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Overall, no changes from previous forecast packages. An active
weather pattern with very little to no impacts will continue through
the weekend and into early next week.

Rex block over western CONUS will continue to dictate the upper
level flow regime as an upper level low over the northern Great
Lakes keeps the flow stagnant. Upper low currently over central AZ
will continue shifting eastward through Sunday. Precipitation
chances will remain in place over northern portions of the CWA
throughout the day, with mostly dry conditions for far southern NM
and west TX. Temperatures this afternoon will top out in the middle
to upper 60s across the desert lowlands.

By Sunday night into Monday, upper low will retrograde back to the
west, allowing another back door cold front to push in from the
east. Sufficient low level moisture will accompany this front, along
with diffluence aloft associated with the retrograding upper low
will lead to scattered to potentially widespread shower activity
across the area on Monday. Can`t rule out an embedded isolated
thunderstorm as well. Confidence is higher for precip west of the
Rio Grande, closer to the upper low. Again snow levels remain high,
so little accumulations are expected in the populated areas of the
Gila/Sacramento Mtns. Temperatures on Monday will be cool, dropping
to 10-15 degrees below average with most areas struggling to get out
of the 50s. Could see winds similar to Saturday with this front
which could mean gusts to 40-45 mph along the western slopes of area
mountains and desert lowland sky islands.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, upper low thats been over the Desert
Southwest will slowly progress to the east/northeast. Isolated
showers will be possible on Tuesday through Wednesday morning as it
tracks across central/northern NM. Winds will begin shifting back to
the west/southwest with temperatures rebounding back to the middle
60s to low 70s for the lowlands.

Broad ridging aloft will return to western CONUS for the second half
of the week. Temperatures will return back to the 70s across the
lowlands, with possible low 80s by next weekend for El Paso and
vicinity.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 AM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

FEW-SCT050 this afternoon across S NM, with greater cloud coverage
and scattered showers to the north. Surface winds generally
140-170 at 06-10 knots. East flow resumes after sunset tonight,
060-090 at 10-15 knots. A few gusts to 25 knots are possible along
mountain west slopes overnight. Precip will be generally isolated
in nature, with greater chances further north. Low clouds expected
again Monday morning, with FEW-SCT015 and BKN-OVC030 at local TAF
sites.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 338 AM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Fire weather conditions will be LOW for the next 3 to 4 days.
Isolated to scattered precipitation will exist each day through
Wednesday, with possible wetting rains/high elevation snow on
Monday. Min RH values will be in the upper teens and 20s across the
lowlands on Sunday, above 30 percent for the mountains. RH values of
greater than 30 percent expected on Monday and Tuesday.

A back door cold front will push in from the east during the early
morning hours on Monday. Winds will be gusty out of the east on
Monday, especially for areas along the western slopes of area
mountains. Winds will turn back to the south and southwest on
Tuesday and Wednesday.

Smoke ventilation rates will range from Fair to Good through
Tuesday. Becoming Very Good to Excellent for the second half of next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  69  50  61  48 /  10  40  60  30
Sierra Blanca            63  43  53  41 /  20  30  70  30
Las Cruces               68  45  59  44 /  10  40  80  40
Alamogordo               64  38  60  39 /  40  40  60  30
Cloudcroft               40  27  34  27 /  70  70  80  50
Truth or Consequences    60  41  54  42 /  40  40  80  40
Silver City              54  37  51  39 /  10  30  70  50
Deming                   65  42  59  42 /   0  30  70  40
Lordsburg                63  39  61  41 /   0  20  60  40
West El Paso Metro       68  47  60  46 /   0  40  60  30
Dell City                65  41  58  40 /  30  40  60  30
Fort Hancock             70  45  61  43 /   0  30  50  30
Loma Linda               60  41  53  40 /  10  30  60  30
Fabens                   70  48  62  45 /  10  30  50  20
Santa Teresa             65  44  59  43 /   0  40  60  30
White Sands HQ           65  47  58  47 /  10  50  70  40
Jornada Range            65  40  58  42 /  20  30  70  40
Hatch                    66  41  59  43 /  10  30  80  40
Columbus                 66  45  61  45 /   0  30  60  30
Orogrande                64  43  57  43 /  20  30  60  30
Mayhill                  48  30  43  30 /  60  60  70  20
Mescalero                50  31  46  30 /  70  70  80  40
Timberon                 50  29  44  29 /  50  50  70  30
Winston                  53  32  46  35 /  40  40  80  40
Hillsboro                60  36  51  38 /  20  40  80  40
Spaceport                63  38  56  39 /  30  40  80  40
Lake Roberts             54  31  52  34 /  30  40  80  60
Hurley                   58  35  53  36 /  10  30  60  40
Cliff                    60  36  61  40 /  10  40  70  40
Mule Creek               55  36  56  39 /  20  40  70  50
Faywood                  58  38  51  39 /  10  30  70  40
Animas                   64  37  63  40 /   0  10  30  20
Hachita                  65  40  61  41 /   0  20  50  20
Antelope Wells           66  37  65  40 /   0  10  30  20
Cloverdale               60  38  61  39 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt


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