Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 171744
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1144 AM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 338 AM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024
Active weather pattern will continue through Tuesday, with very
little to no impacts expected. Mostly quiet weather for Sunday
with showers possible for northern portions of the forecast area.
A back door cold front will push in from the east late tonight and
early Monday morning. Scattered to widespread shower activity will
exist areawide through the day on Monday. Winds will be gusty
after the front passes through, especially for locations along
the western slopes of area mountains. Quiet weather and warming
temperatures return for the remainder of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024
Overall, no changes from previous forecast packages. An active
weather pattern with very little to no impacts will continue through
the weekend and into early next week.
Rex block over western CONUS will continue to dictate the upper
level flow regime as an upper level low over the northern Great
Lakes keeps the flow stagnant. Upper low currently over central AZ
will continue shifting eastward through Sunday. Precipitation
chances will remain in place over northern portions of the CWA
throughout the day, with mostly dry conditions for far southern NM
and west TX. Temperatures this afternoon will top out in the middle
to upper 60s across the desert lowlands.
By Sunday night into Monday, upper low will retrograde back to the
west, allowing another back door cold front to push in from the
east. Sufficient low level moisture will accompany this front, along
with diffluence aloft associated with the retrograding upper low
will lead to scattered to potentially widespread shower activity
across the area on Monday. Can`t rule out an embedded isolated
thunderstorm as well. Confidence is higher for precip west of the
Rio Grande, closer to the upper low. Again snow levels remain high,
so little accumulations are expected in the populated areas of the
Gila/Sacramento Mtns. Temperatures on Monday will be cool, dropping
to 10-15 degrees below average with most areas struggling to get out
of the 50s. Could see winds similar to Saturday with this front
which could mean gusts to 40-45 mph along the western slopes of area
mountains and desert lowland sky islands.
For Tuesday and Wednesday, upper low thats been over the Desert
Southwest will slowly progress to the east/northeast. Isolated
showers will be possible on Tuesday through Wednesday morning as it
tracks across central/northern NM. Winds will begin shifting back to
the west/southwest with temperatures rebounding back to the middle
60s to low 70s for the lowlands.
Broad ridging aloft will return to western CONUS for the second half
of the week. Temperatures will return back to the 70s across the
lowlands, with possible low 80s by next weekend for El Paso and
vicinity.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 AM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024
FEW-SCT050 this afternoon across S NM, with greater cloud coverage
and scattered showers to the north. Surface winds generally
140-170 at 06-10 knots. East flow resumes after sunset tonight,
060-090 at 10-15 knots. A few gusts to 25 knots are possible along
mountain west slopes overnight. Precip will be generally isolated
in nature, with greater chances further north. Low clouds expected
again Monday morning, with FEW-SCT015 and BKN-OVC030 at local TAF
sites.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 338 AM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024
Fire weather conditions will be LOW for the next 3 to 4 days.
Isolated to scattered precipitation will exist each day through
Wednesday, with possible wetting rains/high elevation snow on
Monday. Min RH values will be in the upper teens and 20s across the
lowlands on Sunday, above 30 percent for the mountains. RH values of
greater than 30 percent expected on Monday and Tuesday.
A back door cold front will push in from the east during the early
morning hours on Monday. Winds will be gusty out of the east on
Monday, especially for areas along the western slopes of area
mountains. Winds will turn back to the south and southwest on
Tuesday and Wednesday.
Smoke ventilation rates will range from Fair to Good through
Tuesday. Becoming Very Good to Excellent for the second half of next
week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 69 50 61 48 / 10 40 60 30
Sierra Blanca 63 43 53 41 / 20 30 70 30
Las Cruces 68 45 59 44 / 10 40 80 40
Alamogordo 64 38 60 39 / 40 40 60 30
Cloudcroft 40 27 34 27 / 70 70 80 50
Truth or Consequences 60 41 54 42 / 40 40 80 40
Silver City 54 37 51 39 / 10 30 70 50
Deming 65 42 59 42 / 0 30 70 40
Lordsburg 63 39 61 41 / 0 20 60 40
West El Paso Metro 68 47 60 46 / 0 40 60 30
Dell City 65 41 58 40 / 30 40 60 30
Fort Hancock 70 45 61 43 / 0 30 50 30
Loma Linda 60 41 53 40 / 10 30 60 30
Fabens 70 48 62 45 / 10 30 50 20
Santa Teresa 65 44 59 43 / 0 40 60 30
White Sands HQ 65 47 58 47 / 10 50 70 40
Jornada Range 65 40 58 42 / 20 30 70 40
Hatch 66 41 59 43 / 10 30 80 40
Columbus 66 45 61 45 / 0 30 60 30
Orogrande 64 43 57 43 / 20 30 60 30
Mayhill 48 30 43 30 / 60 60 70 20
Mescalero 50 31 46 30 / 70 70 80 40
Timberon 50 29 44 29 / 50 50 70 30
Winston 53 32 46 35 / 40 40 80 40
Hillsboro 60 36 51 38 / 20 40 80 40
Spaceport 63 38 56 39 / 30 40 80 40
Lake Roberts 54 31 52 34 / 30 40 80 60
Hurley 58 35 53 36 / 10 30 60 40
Cliff 60 36 61 40 / 10 40 70 40
Mule Creek 55 36 56 39 / 20 40 70 50
Faywood 58 38 51 39 / 10 30 70 40
Animas 64 37 63 40 / 0 10 30 20
Hachita 65 40 61 41 / 0 20 50 20
Antelope Wells 66 37 65 40 / 0 10 30 20
Cloverdale 60 38 61 39 / 0 10 20 20
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt