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Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 151203
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
603 AM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 AM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024
A passing Pacific storm system to our north will deliver a dry,
windy, and dusty day to the Borderland. Winds will increase to 30
to 40 mph this afternoon with gusts around 50 mph. Blowing dust is
expected to become widespread, with local areas of dense dust and
difficult travel. Wildfire concerns will be high today, with dry
and windy conditions bringing critical fire weather to the region.
For the rest of the week, continued dry and warm, with breezy
afternoons.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024
Today is the day we`ve been messaging for several days about
strong winds, blowing dust, and elevated wild fire concern. All
looks to be on track, as the Pacific low pressure center is
currently over Las Vegas as expected. There are some last minute
model adjustments in the storms track that suggest winds may peak
a bit lower than we have been forecasting. The upper low was
earlier proged to pass directly over the Four Corners, with a
110kt jet over our region. The latest consensus is for that low
to track a bit further north of the Four Corners, with the upper
jet displaced to the north. However, the downward adjustment in
peak winds and gusts, is relatively insignificant, as we still
expect a quite windy day none the less. Thus we are keeping the
wind headlines as they are. This means potential for damage to
light and lose structures, as well as temporary utility power
interruptions. A Pacific front will push in from the west through
the afternoon, with high pressure spreading east behind it. As
the front moves in, we could see our strongest winds of the day.
We will still certainly be quite dry, with min relative humidity
in the single-digits. The lack of precipitation means that soils
and sands are dry, with dust source regions primed to provide
lofted dust. Soundings across the area indicate deep mixing due to
warm surface temps, and the cool pool of the trough aloft. These
features will support widespread blowing dust, with areas near
source regions seeing periods of dense dust, and significant
reductions in visibility (1-3sm..possibly lower). This poses
travel concerns for the afternoon hours. These same weather
conditions add a third weather hazard to the mix this afternoon in
the form of critical fire weather, with potential for wildfire
that defies control efforts.
The system exits overnight tonight, and for much of the rest of
the week we will be under a generally flat synoptic pattern with
deep westerly flow. We will remain dry through at least Friday.
Temperatures will trend warmer, after a marginally cooler Tuesday,
behind this afternoon`s frontal passage. By Thursday and Friday,
we could be seeing this year`s first 90 degree highs over the
lower lowland areas. Winds will be mostly light in the overnights
and mornings, with some typical spring afternoon breezy
conditions.
Friday night into Saturday, both the GFS and ENMWF models show a
back door front pushing up against the Sacramento mountains. The
upper air pattern is not supportive of this system pushing further
west across our area, so it should stall over eastern Otero
county. Models do suggest a surge of low-level moisture into the
Sacs with this, so we will see possible precip chances with this,
but it should stay limited to the Sacs and chances will be low due
to the shallow nature of the moisture. The rest of the area will
continue dry.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 554 AM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024
VFR conditions are expected through at least 18Z across all of
the TAF sites with CIG SCT-BKN250. Skies should trend towards SKC
after 18-20Z. Winds will be mostly light to breezy (10 to 15 kts
with gusts up to 20 kts) and from the southwest until 16Z. The
winds will become windy (25 to 35 kts with gusts 40-45 kts) while
continuing out of the southwest. There maybe BLDU especially
across KELP, which may cause the VSBY to be reduced to 1-3SM due
to forecaster`s low confidence. Winds will drop off aft 03Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 310 AM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024
Bottom line up front: Critical Fire Weather day across all but the
Gila country. Thus a Red Flag Warning is in effect for strong
winds and very low relative humidity. Lowlands should see SW winds
in the 30-40 mph range this afternoon with gusts near 50 mph.
Area mountains a bit stronger. Winds will shift direction, from SW
to W, through the afternoon, as a Pacific from moves west to east
from AZ toward the SACs through the day. MinRH will fall into the
single- digits eastern and central lowlands, with low teens in
the mountains and western lowlands. Temperatures will be a bit
above normal and there will be somewhat deep instability. All of
these are the ingredients for critical fire weather conditions.
The storm exits tonight with a non-descript, mostly flat, west
flow pattern that will keep the region dry, and bring about some
additional warming. RH will remain quite low, with poor overnight
recoveries, and daily dips into the single-digits. Temperatures
will warm to about 10 degrees above the daily averages. Winds will
be fairly light each night and morning, but become typically
breezy each afternoon.
We will watch for a back door cold front to possibly move into the
Sacs (FWZ113) on Friday night. Models suggest a bump in moisture
and possible precipitation over those east slopes. However it is
way too early to hang a hat on that outcome now.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 85 51 81 54 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 83 45 76 50 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 81 45 81 50 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 77 42 78 47 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 53 32 54 37 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 73 44 79 49 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 62 38 70 44 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 76 40 79 45 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 71 38 76 43 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 82 47 79 53 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 85 43 81 43 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 89 44 81 48 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 76 43 73 49 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 86 45 81 49 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 80 43 78 47 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 78 49 78 53 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 76 39 79 45 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 77 39 81 45 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 78 44 79 48 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 78 42 77 47 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 68 39 68 41 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 64 37 66 40 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 65 34 65 39 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 64 38 73 43 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 70 38 79 46 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 73 38 79 44 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 63 33 72 39 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 67 35 74 42 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 68 37 78 43 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 63 38 73 45 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 67 38 75 45 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 75 39 77 45 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 76 40 77 45 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 77 38 79 45 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 70 39 74 47 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM MDT this
evening for TXZ419>421.
Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM MDT this evening
for TXZ418-422>424.
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM MDT this
evening for TXZ055-056.
NM...High Wind Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM MDT this
evening for NMZ403-406>411-414>417-425>427.
Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM MDT this evening
for NMZ401-404-405-428-429.
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM MDT this
evening for NMZ111>113.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...14-Bird
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