Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 160001
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
601 PM MDT Fri Mar 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 212 PM MDT Fri Mar 15 2024

A persistent upper low will keep some precip chances across the
area into early next week, mainly north of Interstate 10 in New
Mexico. Temperatures will warm a few degrees for the lowlands
through the weekend before another cold front moves in for Monday
and brings a chance for precipitation areawide. The upper low
finally moves out the middle of next week with temperatures
warming back into the 70s and possibly approaching 80 degrees by
Friday along the lower Rio Grande Valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM MDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Stagnant pattern continues through the weekend as a Rex block is
setup over the western US with a strong trough over the Great
Lakes preventing any movement of systems out west. Models in
decent agreement in how things evolve over the coming days with
the upper low spinning over AZ and several pieces of energy
rotating around bringing chances for precip to the CWA, especially
northern areas the next day or so and then a better chance
areawide next Mon before starting to lift out. First piece of
energy is expected tonight with precip spreading across the
northern and western CWA. CAMS models are fairly aggressive with
QPF over the Gila region and particularly the Blacks Range where
they are showing 0.75-1 inch. GFS and EC are hitting these areas
as well, but closer to 0.5"-0.75". There is some weak instability
this evening which could lead to some locally higher amounts, but
in general going to go with a tenth to half inch across the Gila
region. Snow levels start out around 8kft but by morning if
there`s lingering precip around, will see snow levels down toward
6500-7000ft. Blacks could then see 3-6 inches above 8000 feet, but
wouldn`t be surprised to see an inch or two down around Pinos
Altos by morning. Winds will be on the decrease this evening and
most areas should be below 10 mph by morning. MOS guidance temps
looked a little low given decent moisture around with continued
easterly low level flow and expected cloud cover, NBM temps seemed
more reasonable.

Best moisture gets pushed north as drier air gets picked up in the
southwest flow for Sat. A few lingering showers over the north,
but otherwise expect a dry day for most of the CWA. Winds at the
surface will start to shift to the west to southwest to around the
Rio Grande which will allow for temperatures to warm into the
upper 50s and 60s for the lowlands. The upper low starts pushing
east through AZ Sat night into Sun which will keep some shower
chances going north, but the dry slot which is very noticeable on
WV will be affecting the lowlands. Temps Sunday warm just a couple
degrees and remain slightly below average.

Going into Mon, the Great Lakes trough finally starts to move east
and pushes through a back door front. This will bring some added
low level moisture to the lowlands and combined with the upper low
still sitting over AZ will bring a chance for showers areawide.
High temperatures will drop about 5-15 degrees. Southwest flow
over the area will keep snow levels fairly high(above 7500ft).
Models as usual have been bouncing around a bit with this upper
low, which is typical for SW cutoffs, so confidence is a little
below average since trends with current setup have pushed precip
further and further north.

Upper low finally starts to open up and push east Tue/Wed with
drier air moving in over the lowlands with gusty west winds
expected to develop. A few mountain showers will continue though.
Temperatures will start climbing again with highs back into the
70s for the lower elevations by Thursday and possibly approach 80
around El Paso and the lower Rio Grande Valley by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 PM MDT Fri Mar 15 2024

From Rio Grande Valley west...SCT-BKN100 BKN250 with isolated
BKN040 -SHRA. Ocnl OVC030 6SM -SHSN above 8000 ft.
Additionally...across the desert areas from Deming to the Arizona
border...widespread blowing dust with occasional 1-3SM BLDU until
around 03Z. Surface winds east/southeast 15-25G35KT diminishing to
east 7-10KT after 03Z.

East of the Rio Grande Valley...SCT050 SCT250. Additionally over
the Sacramento Mtns east of a line from High Rolls-Sunspot-
Timberon...BKN-OVC015 patchy 1-3SM BR/FZFG. Clouds and showers
from the west gradually spreading to this area. Surface winds east
15-20G30KT diminishing east 8-12KT after 06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 212 PM MDT Fri Mar 15 2024

No real fire issues for the short term as the persistent upper low
over the southwest remains nearly stationary into early next week.
Expect the higher elevation and Sierra county to receive some
precipitation almost daily through Tuesday. Winds will be
decreasing this evening and remain fairly light through the
weekend. Another back door front moves in Monday bringing breezy
conditions, but with precip chances areawide. Windy conditions
start to return for the middle of next week as the upper low
finally lifts out to the north of the Borderland.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  47  68  45  69 /  20  10  10  10
Sierra Blanca            42  66  42  64 /  10  10  20  20
Las Cruces               43  66  41  67 /  20  10  10  20
Alamogordo               41  64  40  64 /  40  30  20  40
Cloudcroft               28  39  28  41 /  60  40  50  50
Truth or Consequences    40  61  39  60 /  70  50  20  30
Silver City              36  55  33  55 /  70  20  10  20
Deming                   40  64  36  65 /  60  20   0  10
Lordsburg                39  62  34  63 /  40  10   0  10
West El Paso Metro       46  68  45  68 /  10  10   0  10
Dell City                44  67  40  67 /  30  10  30  40
Fort Hancock             43  70  42  71 /  10   0  10  20
Loma Linda               41  62  42  61 /  10   0  10  20
Fabens                   45  69  43  71 /  10  10  10  10
Santa Teresa             42  66  39  66 /  20  10   0  10
White Sands HQ           46  66  45  67 /  20  10  10  20
Jornada Range            42  65  37  65 /  30  20  10  30
Hatch                    43  66  37  66 /  60  20  10  20
Columbus                 43  66  40  66 /  20  10   0  10
Orogrande                43  65  42  64 /  30  20  10  30
Mayhill                  32  44  34  48 /  50  30  40  50
Mescalero                34  49  32  51 /  60  50  60  60
Timberon                 30  50  31  52 /  40  30  30  50
Winston                  37  54  29  52 /  90  30  10  30
Hillsboro                37  59  34  57 /  80  40  10  20
Spaceport                40  62  36  63 /  60  40  10  30
Lake Roberts             35  54  28  55 / 100  20  10  30
Hurley                   33  58  31  59 /  70  20   0  10
Cliff                    38  61  31  59 /  80  20   0  10
Mule Creek               38  55  30  56 /  70  10  10  10
Faywood                  36  57  34  58 /  80  40   0  20
Animas                   39  63  34  65 /  20   0   0   0
Hachita                  41  64  34  65 /  30  10   0   0
Antelope Wells           40  65  34  66 /  10   0   0   0
Cloverdale               38  58  34  60 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...17-Hefner


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