154
FXUS64 KEPZ 281120
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
520 AM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 228 AM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024

The Borderland region will see some relief in the coming days from
the winds we`ve been seeing over the pass several days. Quiet
weather conditions, plenty of sunshine, and warming temperatures
will be the theme as we progress through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 AM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Overall, no changes from previous forecast packages with quiet
weather conditions and cooler than normal temperatures today and
Monday (near normal temps on Monday). Quiet weather will be the
theme through the week, along with warming temperatures backing
into the upper 80s and low 90s by midweek.

Yesterday`s storm system will continue progressing north and east
with north/northwest flow aloft in it`s wake over the Desert
Southwest. This means quiet weather conditions and cool
temperatures for today and tomorrow. High temperatures this
afternoon will struggle getting out of the 70s, with back to near
normal temperatures on Monday. Winds will be light to low-end
breezy each afternoon.

Upper level flow regime will become zonal by midweek. An upper
level system will pass well off to our north over the Northern
Rockies by Wednesday into Thursday. This will promote a slight
uptick in our winds locally, becoming generally breezy.
Temperatures by Wednesday and onward will hover right around the
90 degree mark for El Paso and Las Cruces metros.

By Friday and into the weekend, models continue to hint at the
approach of the dryline from the east. Still a bit of uncertainty
with this, as whether or not it will reach the Rio Grande Valley.
As of now, a very minimal chance for thunderstorms will exist
locally, predominately over the Sacramento Mountains and Hudspeth
County. Ensemble trends will need to be monitored in the coming
days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 502 AM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period. Skies SKC through the
morning with FEW250 during the afternoon. Winds light (5-10 knots)
out of the NW through the morning, becoming W/SW during the
afternoon hours at 8-13 knots with gusts to 18-23 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 228 AM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Fire weather conditions will be LOW (today) to low-end ELEVATED
(Monday) with light winds and critically low Min RHs each
afternoon. Continued dryness with an uptick in winds by midweek,
with ELEVATED fire weather conditions expected over the mountains
and ELEVATED to CRITICAL fire weather conditions over the desert
lowlands on Wednesday and Thursday.

Models continue to hint at the approach of the dryline from the east
late next week, possibly reaching the Rio Grande Valley next
Friday/Saturday. This would suggest at least a very minimal chance
for thunderstorms locally. Ensemble trends will need to monitored in
the coming days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  79  55  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            73  50  80  54 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               79  49  84  52 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               74  46  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               52  35  58  41 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    76  49  81  52 /  10   0   0   0
Silver City              68  43  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   77  44  83  48 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                74  44  82  48 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       77  53  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                78  44  85  47 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             79  48  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               71  49  77  53 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   79  49  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             76  46  82  50 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           77  54  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            76  44  82  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    79  45  84  48 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 76  49  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                74  47  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  66  40  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                63  38  70  43 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 62  37  68  42 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  69  40  76  44 /  10   0   0   0
Hillsboro                74  44  80  48 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                75  44  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             69  38  76  42 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   71  40  78  44 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    75  43  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               71  44  77  48 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  71  44  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   75  44  83  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  75  45  83  48 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           76  45  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               70  46  77  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...38-Rogers