Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 171031
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
431 AM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024
...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 430 AM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024
We will have a quiet, warm, and dry weather pattern through the
end of the week. We will be near record high temperatures on
Thursday and Friday. For the weekend, most of us will continue our
dry, warm weather, but there will be a slight chance for
thunderstorms in Hudspeth County and in the Sacramento Mountains.
For the start of next week, we will continue our dry and warm
weather ways.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024
Our quiet and warm (some would say very warm) weather pattern will
continue through the end of the week. For today, a weak upper
level short wave trough will quietly pass across the region. The
system has little energy and even less moisture to work with, so
it will have no impacts on our weather. What we will have today is
warmer temperatures with high temperatures running a little above
average. For Thursday and Friday, we will transition from a zonal
(west to east) flow to a southwest flow. This will allow our
temperatures to jump a few more degrees higher. High temperatures
will be near record levels for both days. Probabilistic forecasts
show that El Paso and Truth of Consequences only have a 10 to 15%
chance of setting a record high temperature each day, while Las
Cruces and Alamogordo have a 30 to 50% chance of setting a record
highs on Thursday or Friday.
For the weekend, we may see our first intrusion of the dry line.
The models indicate that an east push will allow some moisture
from the east to slip into the region, mainly east of the Rio
Grande. Probabilistic models show there is a good chance (70 to
90%) that at least the 40 degree dewpoint values will push into
the Sacramento Mountains and eastern Hudspeth counties Friday
night, while El Paso and Dona Ana Counties, will see much lower
(10 to 20%) of 40 degree dewpoint values. For Saturday night we
will see a good probability (60 to 80%) of pushing through El Paso
and Las Cruces. How far the moisture can push west will make a
in how far west the thunderstorm chances will go. Right now, the
best thunderstorm chances (30 to 50%) will stay in Hudspeth
County and the Sacramento Mountains. We will see lower rain
chances the further west you go.
For the start of next week, a westerly flow will push most of the
moisture back to the east and that will keep us warm and dry. High
temperatures will run 5 to 8 degrees above average both days. On
Tuesday another weak upper level short wave will move across New
Mexico, which could give us some breezy afternoon winds.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 PM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024
VMC through forecast period under light northwest flow aloft.
Surface winds AOB 6 knots overnight, prevailing from the WSW 240-260
at 06-12 knots this afternoon. Skies SKC-FEW250 with greater high
clouds coverage to the southeast over Mexico and S TX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 430 AM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024
We will continue to have quiet fire weather through the end of the
week. We will see occasionally breezy afternoon winds each day,
but the winds will stay well below critical levels. Min RH`s,
though, will be very dry. Min RH`s in the lowlands will be in the
single digits, while in the mountains the min RH`s will be near
10%. RH recoveries at night will also be poor, with max RH`s of 15
to 20% in the lowlands and 20 to 30% in area mountains. For Friday
night through Sunday, we will see a push of moisture from the
east. We will see a slight chance for thunderstorms, mainly in the
Sacramento Mountains and Hudspeth County. The very dry conditions
will continue this weekend, for locations west of the Rio Grande.
The first of next week will see more dry, warm weather, but winds
also will continue to be on the light side of things.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 87 57 91 60 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 82 54 86 54 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 87 52 91 57 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 82 50 87 55 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 60 41 65 44 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 84 52 88 56 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 75 48 78 53 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 84 48 88 53 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 82 47 86 53 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 85 55 88 60 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 87 45 92 48 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 88 51 92 54 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 79 53 82 55 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 87 52 91 55 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 83 49 87 54 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 84 59 89 61 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 84 49 88 53 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 86 47 90 53 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 84 52 89 57 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 82 50 87 54 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 75 47 79 46 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 71 46 76 47 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 70 44 74 45 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 77 44 82 50 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 83 48 86 54 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 83 47 87 52 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 77 42 80 49 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 79 44 83 49 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 82 46 86 53 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 77 47 80 53 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 79 49 82 53 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 83 48 87 54 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 83 49 87 54 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 83 49 87 54 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 78 50 81 55 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...15-Brice