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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 171031
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
431 AM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 430 AM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

We will have a quiet, warm, and dry weather pattern through the
end of the week. We will be near record high temperatures on
Thursday and Friday. For the weekend, most of us will continue our
dry, warm weather, but there will be a slight chance for
thunderstorms in Hudspeth County and in the Sacramento Mountains.
For the start of next week, we will continue our dry and warm
weather ways.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Our quiet and warm (some would say very warm) weather pattern will
continue through the end of the week. For today, a weak upper
level short wave trough will quietly pass across the region. The
system has little energy and even less moisture to work with, so
it will have no impacts on our weather. What we will have today is
warmer temperatures with high temperatures running a little above
average. For Thursday and Friday, we will transition from a zonal
(west to east) flow to a southwest flow. This will allow our
temperatures to jump a few more degrees higher. High temperatures
will be near record levels for both days. Probabilistic forecasts
show that El Paso and Truth of Consequences only have a 10 to 15%
chance of setting a record high temperature each day, while Las
Cruces and Alamogordo have a 30 to 50% chance of setting a record
highs on Thursday or Friday.

For the weekend, we may see our first intrusion of the dry line.
The models indicate that an east push will allow some moisture
from the east to slip into the region, mainly east of the Rio
Grande. Probabilistic models show there is a good chance (70 to
90%) that at least the 40 degree dewpoint values will push into
the Sacramento Mountains and eastern Hudspeth counties Friday
night, while El Paso and Dona Ana Counties, will see much lower
(10 to 20%) of 40 degree dewpoint values. For Saturday night we
will see a good probability (60 to 80%) of pushing through El Paso
and Las Cruces. How far the moisture can push west will make a
 in how far west the thunderstorm chances will go. Right now, the
best thunderstorm chances (30 to 50%) will stay in Hudspeth
County and the Sacramento Mountains. We will see lower rain
chances the further west you go.

For the start of next week, a westerly flow will push most of the
moisture back to the east and that will keep us warm and dry. High
temperatures will run 5 to 8 degrees above average both days. On
Tuesday another weak upper level short wave will move across New
Mexico, which could give us some breezy afternoon winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 PM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

VMC through forecast period under light northwest flow aloft.
Surface winds AOB 6 knots overnight, prevailing from the WSW 240-260
at 06-12 knots this afternoon. Skies SKC-FEW250 with greater high
clouds coverage to the southeast over Mexico and S TX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 430 AM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

We will continue to have quiet fire weather through the end of the
week. We will see occasionally breezy afternoon winds each day,
but the winds will stay well below critical levels. Min RH`s,
though, will be very dry. Min RH`s in the lowlands will be in the
single digits, while in the mountains the min RH`s will be near
10%. RH recoveries at night will also be poor, with max RH`s of 15
to 20% in the lowlands and 20 to 30% in area mountains. For Friday
night through Sunday, we will see a push of moisture from the
east. We will see a slight chance for thunderstorms, mainly in the
Sacramento Mountains and Hudspeth County. The very dry conditions
will continue this weekend, for locations west of the Rio Grande.
The first of next week will see more dry, warm weather, but winds
also will continue to be on the light side of things.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  87  57  91  60 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            82  54  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               87  52  91  57 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               82  50  87  55 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               60  41  65  44 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    84  52  88  56 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              75  48  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   84  48  88  53 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                82  47  86  53 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       85  55  88  60 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                87  45  92  48 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             88  51  92  54 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               79  53  82  55 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   87  52  91  55 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             83  49  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           84  59  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            84  49  88  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    86  47  90  53 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 84  52  89  57 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                82  50  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  75  47  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                71  46  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 70  44  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  77  44  82  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                83  48  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                83  47  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             77  42  80  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   79  44  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    82  46  86  53 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               77  47  80  53 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  79  49  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   83  48  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  83  49  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           83  49  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               78  50  81  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice