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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
000 FXUS64 KEPZ 212009 AFDEPZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM 209 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013 .SYNOPSIS... WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARM DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GULF MOISTURE WILL FLOW INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HUDSPETH AND EASTERN OTERO COUNTY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. OTHERWISE WARM DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE BORDERLAND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS WERE LOCATED BETWEEN SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST WITH A DRY SUBSIDING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP OUR HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES COOLER TODAY. RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY WHILE WEAK SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE EAST. SUBSIDENCE AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARM DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ON THE LARGER SCALE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING UNSEASONABLY DEEP HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY. SYSTEM WILL SUBSEQUENTLY EXHIBIT LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SERIES OF VORT MAXES/SHORT WAVES MOVING AROUND CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE NORTHEAST. ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE A BACKING FLOW WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. CONSEQUENTLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING ABOVE 40 AND PRECIPITABLE WATER RISING TO NEAR AN INCH. IN ADDITION EXPECT CAPES TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG DRY LINE PLUS SURFACE HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT TO INITIATE UPDRAFTS. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO OUTLOOK CONVECTION OVER HUDSPETH AND EASTERN OTERO COUNTY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. ELSEWHERE EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR TRANSPORT TO PRECLUDE STORM DEVELOPMENT. GFS AND ECMWF NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE THE DRIER AIR TO ADVECT EASTWARD WITH DRY LINE BEING FORCED EAST OF THE CWA. THUS WARM DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR ALMOST ALL OF THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...VALID 22/00Z-23/00Z. VFR CONDITIONS WWILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RELUCTANTLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH VARIABLE WINDS DOMINATING OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS IN THE 18-24 KNOT RANGE. && .FIRE WEATHER... DRY LIGHTNING RISK INCREASING FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND... SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY REBOUND BACK TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL TOMORROW AS SW FLOW RESUMES. GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH WESTWARDS INTO THE TRANS-PECOS REGION RESULTING IN SOME THUNDER- STORM ACTIVITY TO OUR IMMEDIATE EAST THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN OUTFLOW WHICH WILL FURTHER PUSH THE MOISTURE AND DRYLINE BOUNDARY WESTWARDS AND REACHING THE RIO GRANDE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT AND THE DRYLINE WILL SHIFT EAST TO EAST SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTOS/GUADALUPES IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WEEKEND...MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE AND FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE SLIGHTLY BREEZY AND DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. BEING ON THE MARGINAL WESTWARD FRINGES OF THE MOISTURE SUGGESTS A BETTER CHANCE FOR DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES ESPECIALLY OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS OTERO MESA AND HUDSPETH COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... EL PASO 64 94 68 96 68 / 0 0 0 10 10 SIERRA BLANCA 57 91 62 94 63 / 0 0 0 10 20 LAS CRUCES 56 91 58 93 59 / 0 0 0 0 10 ALAMOGORDO 54 90 58 94 59 / 0 0 0 10 10 CLOUDCROFT 39 68 45 70 46 / 0 0 0 10 10 TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 57 91 61 92 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 SILVER CITY 50 88 55 87 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 DEMING 52 91 56 93 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 LORDSBURG 52 91 57 93 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 WEST EL PASO METRO 63 93 66 94 66 / 0 0 0 0 10 DELL CITY 53 92 56 94 57 / 0 0 0 10 20 FORT HANCOCK 58 96 63 95 66 / 0 0 0 10 10 LOMA LINDA 53 87 57 87 57 / 0 0 0 10 10 FABENS 60 94 65 95 65 / 0 0 0 10 10 SANTA TERESA 58 93 60 95 61 / 0 0 0 0 10 WHITE SANDS HQ 61 91 67 93 67 / 0 0 0 0 10 JORNADA RANGE 46 91 49 94 50 / 0 0 0 0 10 HATCH 55 88 59 90 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 COLUMBUS 58 91 61 94 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 OROGRANDE 53 94 57 97 59 / 0 0 0 10 10 MAYHILL 47 80 53 81 54 / 0 0 0 10 20 MESCALERO 41 79 45 83 45 / 0 0 0 10 10 TIMBERON 41 78 44 81 46 / 0 0 0 10 10 WINSTON 47 81 48 83 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 HILLSBORO 51 86 56 88 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 SPACEPORT 50 90 56 92 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 LAKE ROBERTS 44 83 49 84 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 HURLEY 54 86 59 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 CLIFF 45 92 51 92 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 MULE CREEK 36 88 42 89 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 FAYWOOD 52 85 58 88 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 ANIMAS 56 91 57 93 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 HACHITA 50 90 56 92 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 ANTELOPE WELLS 58 92 60 93 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 CLOVERDALE 53 86 55 88 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 05 ROGASH/25 HARDIMAN
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