Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 180527
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1127 PM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 220 PM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Scattered lowland rain and mountain snow showers tonight into
Tuesday with cool temperatures and breezy east winds. Dry weather
returns on Wednesday as a warming trend begins. Warm and breezy
Spring-like weather expected next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Upper low remains positioned over central Arizona today. The more
diffluent flow rests just to our north over central New Mexico,
were showers activity is more scattered in coverage. Still, a few
lowland rain and mountain snow showers are ongoing over northern
Sierra/Otero Counties this afternoon. Upper low will begin a slow
retrograde to the west overnight and east surface winds resume
after sunset, allowing for more precipitation chances into Monday
morning. Overall, precipitation coverage will be quite spotty and
light but focused on central New Mexico rather than the
International Border locations.

In terms of snow, freezing levels remain quite high. Snow will be
possible for elevations above 7000 feet overnight, primarily the
Black Range and Sacramento Mountains. Mostly likely window for
snow accumulations will be 4am-12pm Monday. Current forecast calls
for 1-3" over the Sacramento Mountains, 4-8" over the peaks of
the Black Range. No major impacts expected from this outside of
Cloudcroft and Emory Pass.

Monday will be the coolest day of the week, with temperatures 10
to 15 degrees below normal for mid-March. Clouds are expected to
hang around most of the day, with lowland highs in the upper 50s
to 60. Winds will also be quite brisk out of the east all day,
with gusts to 30 mph.

Skies begin to clear on Tuesday as the upper low finally begins a
progression over the region, exiting by Thursday morning. The core
of this low is quite dry, thus little to no precipitation chances
after Tuesday.

Broad ridging flow midweek into next weekend behind the current
system. This will promote a steady warming trend through the rest
of the week. Expect lowland highs back into the mid to upper 70s
Thursday into the weekend. Dry, breezy west flow also resumes but
currently looks to remain below anything headline-worthy.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 PM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Generally VFR conditions with SCT-BKN080 BKN250 with isolated
OVC040 -SHRA, mainly north of Lordsburg-Orogrande line. Also
slight chance of OVC050CB -TSRA until 09Z. Additionally above
7500 ft...isolated OVC030 5SM -SHSN. Surface winds east
12-17G27KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 220 PM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Scattered showers and high humidity will keep fire danger low
through Tuesday. Light snow accumulations expected for elevations
above 7500 feet Monday morning. Gusty east flow on Monday, with
20-ft gusts around 30 mph and Good ventilation rates.

More Spring-like weather resumes Thursday into the weekend.
Temperatures will warm under dry conditions. West flow also
returns, remaining breezy each afternoon. Elevated fire danger
possibly returns next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  50  61  48  70 /  30  20  20   0
Sierra Blanca            43  54  40  66 /  30  20  20  10
Las Cruces               46  60  44  66 /  30  30  20   0
Alamogordo               40  61  40  65 /  30  20  20  10
Cloudcroft               27  34  26  43 /  60  40  20  30
Truth or Consequences    41  55  41  60 /  40  50  30  10
Silver City              38  49  38  57 /  40  40  30  20
Deming                   43  58  41  66 /  30  30  20   0
Lordsburg                40  59  41  66 /  20  30  30  10
West El Paso Metro       48  59  46  69 /  30  20  20   0
Dell City                41  59  41  67 /  40  30  20  10
Fort Hancock             46  61  43  73 /  30  20  20  10
Loma Linda               41  54  40  63 /  30  20  20  10
Fabens                   48  62  45  72 /  30  20  20   0
Santa Teresa             45  58  43  66 /  30  20  20   0
White Sands HQ           47  58  46  66 /  30  30  20  10
Jornada Range            43  58  43  64 /  30  30  20  10
Hatch                    43  59  43  66 /  40  40  20  10
Columbus                 46  61  45  67 /  30  20  20   0
Orogrande                44  58  43  64 /  30  20  20  10
Mayhill                  31  44  30  56 /  50  40  20  20
Mescalero                32  46  30  54 /  60  40  20  40
Timberon                 29  45  29  53 /  40  30  20  20
Winston                  33  45  35  54 /  50  70  40  20
Hillsboro                37  51  38  59 /  50  60  40  10
Spaceport                38  57  40  61 /  40  40  20  10
Lake Roberts             32  50  34  58 /  50  40  40  30
Hurley                   36  53  36  60 /  40  40  30  10
Cliff                    38  60  40  64 /  40  40  40  10
Mule Creek               38  55  38  59 /  50  40  40  20
Faywood                  38  51  39  58 /  40  40  30  10
Animas                   38  61  40  69 /  10  40  40   0
Hachita                  41  60  41  69 /  20  30  30   0
Antelope Wells           37  63  39  69 /  10  20  20   0
Cloverdale               38  60  38  65 /  10  20  20   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...38-Rogers


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