Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 180527
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1127 PM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 220 PM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024
Scattered lowland rain and mountain snow showers tonight into
Tuesday with cool temperatures and breezy east winds. Dry weather
returns on Wednesday as a warming trend begins. Warm and breezy
Spring-like weather expected next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024
Upper low remains positioned over central Arizona today. The more
diffluent flow rests just to our north over central New Mexico,
were showers activity is more scattered in coverage. Still, a few
lowland rain and mountain snow showers are ongoing over northern
Sierra/Otero Counties this afternoon. Upper low will begin a slow
retrograde to the west overnight and east surface winds resume
after sunset, allowing for more precipitation chances into Monday
morning. Overall, precipitation coverage will be quite spotty and
light but focused on central New Mexico rather than the
International Border locations.
In terms of snow, freezing levels remain quite high. Snow will be
possible for elevations above 7000 feet overnight, primarily the
Black Range and Sacramento Mountains. Mostly likely window for
snow accumulations will be 4am-12pm Monday. Current forecast calls
for 1-3" over the Sacramento Mountains, 4-8" over the peaks of
the Black Range. No major impacts expected from this outside of
Cloudcroft and Emory Pass.
Monday will be the coolest day of the week, with temperatures 10
to 15 degrees below normal for mid-March. Clouds are expected to
hang around most of the day, with lowland highs in the upper 50s
to 60. Winds will also be quite brisk out of the east all day,
with gusts to 30 mph.
Skies begin to clear on Tuesday as the upper low finally begins a
progression over the region, exiting by Thursday morning. The core
of this low is quite dry, thus little to no precipitation chances
after Tuesday.
Broad ridging flow midweek into next weekend behind the current
system. This will promote a steady warming trend through the rest
of the week. Expect lowland highs back into the mid to upper 70s
Thursday into the weekend. Dry, breezy west flow also resumes but
currently looks to remain below anything headline-worthy.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 PM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024
Generally VFR conditions with SCT-BKN080 BKN250 with isolated
OVC040 -SHRA, mainly north of Lordsburg-Orogrande line. Also
slight chance of OVC050CB -TSRA until 09Z. Additionally above
7500 ft...isolated OVC030 5SM -SHSN. Surface winds east
12-17G27KT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 220 PM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024
Scattered showers and high humidity will keep fire danger low
through Tuesday. Light snow accumulations expected for elevations
above 7500 feet Monday morning. Gusty east flow on Monday, with
20-ft gusts around 30 mph and Good ventilation rates.
More Spring-like weather resumes Thursday into the weekend.
Temperatures will warm under dry conditions. West flow also
returns, remaining breezy each afternoon. Elevated fire danger
possibly returns next weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 50 61 48 70 / 30 20 20 0
Sierra Blanca 43 54 40 66 / 30 20 20 10
Las Cruces 46 60 44 66 / 30 30 20 0
Alamogordo 40 61 40 65 / 30 20 20 10
Cloudcroft 27 34 26 43 / 60 40 20 30
Truth or Consequences 41 55 41 60 / 40 50 30 10
Silver City 38 49 38 57 / 40 40 30 20
Deming 43 58 41 66 / 30 30 20 0
Lordsburg 40 59 41 66 / 20 30 30 10
West El Paso Metro 48 59 46 69 / 30 20 20 0
Dell City 41 59 41 67 / 40 30 20 10
Fort Hancock 46 61 43 73 / 30 20 20 10
Loma Linda 41 54 40 63 / 30 20 20 10
Fabens 48 62 45 72 / 30 20 20 0
Santa Teresa 45 58 43 66 / 30 20 20 0
White Sands HQ 47 58 46 66 / 30 30 20 10
Jornada Range 43 58 43 64 / 30 30 20 10
Hatch 43 59 43 66 / 40 40 20 10
Columbus 46 61 45 67 / 30 20 20 0
Orogrande 44 58 43 64 / 30 20 20 10
Mayhill 31 44 30 56 / 50 40 20 20
Mescalero 32 46 30 54 / 60 40 20 40
Timberon 29 45 29 53 / 40 30 20 20
Winston 33 45 35 54 / 50 70 40 20
Hillsboro 37 51 38 59 / 50 60 40 10
Spaceport 38 57 40 61 / 40 40 20 10
Lake Roberts 32 50 34 58 / 50 40 40 30
Hurley 36 53 36 60 / 40 40 30 10
Cliff 38 60 40 64 / 40 40 40 10
Mule Creek 38 55 38 59 / 50 40 40 20
Faywood 38 51 39 58 / 40 40 30 10
Animas 38 61 40 69 / 10 40 40 0
Hachita 41 60 41 69 / 20 30 30 0
Antelope Wells 37 63 39 69 / 10 20 20 0
Cloverdale 38 60 38 65 / 10 20 20 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...38-Rogers