457
FXUS64 KEPZ 082040
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
240 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 235 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024

Warm and breezy conditions are expected through much of the next
seven days. A boundary will switch winds in the morning from the
east, but winds return from the west by afternoon. On Saturday,
eastern areas, especially the Sacramento Mountains, will have a
chance for some thunderstorms. Dry and warm conditions return
Sunday into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024

Long wave UL trough will continue to cover the Western CONUS for
the next few days. We expect another breezy to windy afternoon
today, but high pressure will move south through the Plains
inhibiting lee troughing for Thursday. Winds will not be as
breezy, which will alleviate fire concerns. The air mass
associated with the high pressure looks to push through much of
the CWA to at least the Continental Divide during the overnight
hours into Friday morning. This moisture will be short-lived and
shallow, so it retreats back to the east during the afternoon
hours. A closed low is expected to organize toward Las Vegas, NV,
which will help provide some dynamics to where moisture remains,
which may be far east Hudspeth Co and the Sacramento Mountains,
where there are slight POPs late evening and overnight. A better
surge is expected Friday night into Saturday, but the air mass
will again retreat east. Guidance shows it may not retreat as far,
so there is a bit better chance of precip for the Sacs and mainly
Hudspeth County. For areas west of this boundary, temperatures
will be seasonal to slightly above seasonal.

UL low swings through to our north on Sunday, which will firmly
displace the moisture to our east, placing us in the dry slot. The
track of the low will be far enough for modest precip chances in
our mountains, but that will be about all. Elsewhere, warm and
breezy to low-end windy conditions will bring another day of
elevated to near- critical fire danger. This UL low clears out
Sunday night, leaving NM and Far W. TX at the base of a s/w ridge
in its wake. We will still be at the northern edge of the
subtropical jet, which will be enough to bring us breezy winds in
the afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 AM MDT Wed May 8 2024

VFR conditions expected with SKC-FEW250. Winds will become breezy
again this afternoon with speeds topping out around 20 knots and
gusts to 30-35 knots. Direction will primarily be 260-280. Speeds
then decrease after dark though more slowly at ELP because of
downslope winds. ELP will be near or just under AWW criteria but
will not be issuing one. There is a slight possibility for
significant BLDU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 235 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024

Fire concerns decrease after this afternoon. Thursday will remain
very dry with min RH values near 10 and poor recoveries in the
morning. Nevertheless, winds will be lighter, topping out around
10 to 15 MPH. Venting will be excellent. Starting Thursday night
into Friday morning, a boundary will move east to west bringing
with it an increase in moisture. Latest guidance shows it reaching
the Continental Divide by morning, but may extend to the AZ
border. Regardless, the air mass will mainly improve overnight
recoveries as it will shift back to the east in the afternoon.
Only far eastern zones may see improvements in afternoon
recoveries. The airmass pushes west again overnight Friday into
Saturday, but may not retreat as far east. Eastern areas have a
chance for a shower and thunderstorm. Dry air completely sweeps
through the area on Sunday along with some increase in winds. At
this time though it appears winds will fall short of any critical
thresholds topping out around 15 MPH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  68  87  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            56  82  54  79 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               53  85  53  87 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               50  82  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               39  60  38  59 /   0   0   0  10
Truth or Consequences    50  81  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              44  72  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   48  83  47  86 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                48  80  47  85 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       58  84  58  85 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                55  86  50  81 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             57  89  53  89 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               55  78  53  77 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   58  87  55  88 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             53  83  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           62  83  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            49  81  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    49  84  47  87 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 55  84  52  87 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                52  81  52  81 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  44  73  41  67 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                42  71  41  70 /   0   0   0  10
Timberon                 42  69  40  68 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  42  73  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                47  79  46  82 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                46  81  45  83 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             41  73  41  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   42  76  42  80 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    45  79  45  84 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               45  74  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  45  76  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   48  82  48  86 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  50  82  49  86 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           49  82  48  87 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               47  76  48  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for TXZ055-056.

NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ110>113.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...34-Brown