Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 202043
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
243 PM MDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Drier weather remains on tap going forward through the weekend
and into next week...as seasonal west to northwest flow aloft
returns to the region. Breezy to locally windy west winds are
expected Saturday with seasonably warm temperatures to continue...before
a cold front returns temperatures near normal Sunday. Light winds
follow most of next week for the borderland...with temperatures
climbing near or above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Latest WV imagery continues to depict an active weather pattern
across the CONUS...with a pair of full latitude UL troughs moving
over the western states and central plains and high pressure
aloft extending across the eastern states and Atlantic Seaboard.
Yesterdays weather enhancer is now over the TX panhandle...as part
of the complex trof aloft that affected us the last couple of
days. 12Z EPZ soundings depict gradual drying at the mid and lower
levels...with PWAT falling below 0.75. At the surface, advection
of relatively drier air from the west and southwest continues to
slowly lower dewpoints across the region and Borderland. Dewpoints
range from the middle 30s in northwest Grant county...to the
upper 50s across eastern Hudspeth county.

The dry weather will continue...as pattern for us transitions to
two varieties typical for this time of year. One type...the return
of progressive westerly flow with the advection of passing troughs...will
feature movement of progressive trough across the region Sat/Sat
night. This will be a dry feature. The other type includes development
of high pressure aloft over the west coast/wrn states and troughing
over the cntrl/eastern states. We are left somewhere in between
the influences from these features...and in the track for mainly
dry back door cold frontal massages.

For the first part of next week...we should be a little more
under the ridge. Thus expect light winds and temperatures near or
just above normal through Wednesday.

Weather looks to turn a little more active later next week...as both
the GFS and ECMWF continue to fcst approach of a much stronger
trough into the western states Thursday. Gusty winds...much cooler
temperatures and slight chances for precip in the Sacs are
possible by the end of the week and next weekend.

EAST WIND IMPACTS SATURDAY: Locally windy for favored locations
such as mountain passes...ridgelines and east of area mountains
including east El Paso. Cross winds may make handing a little
difficult for north-southbound high profile vehicles in east El
Paso for few hours in the mid and late afternoon. Mix down of
strengthened winds aloft associated with the UL trof passage...and
development of a lee side trof early Saturday will generate
breezy to locally windy conditions across srn NM and west TX.

EAST WIND IMPACTS LATE TUESDAY: Gusty east winds and cross winds
possible Tuesday for west El Paso. Back door cold frontal
passage/sfc high pressure expansion edging in behind from the
plains...will lead to development of strengthened east winds for
the borderland. Downslope effects however along the Franklin west

POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST WIND IMPACTS THURSDAY:
Crosswinds and widespread blowing dust/channeled dust plumes. GFS
and ECMWF solutions from thursday evening continue to deepen a
full latitude trough into the central and southern plains into the
weekend...providing a glancing blow to us by to our east. This
will primarily be a dry feature...but strengthening winds aloft
and an attempt at lee side sfc trof dvlpmnt will likely generate
at least windy conditions for the borderland all elevations
Thursday afternoon. 30-35 mph sustained speeds look possible
should the latest model runs pan out. Dominant mechanism for the
winds at this time appears to be from momentum mix down.

POSSIBLE EAST WIND IMPACTS, TEMPERATURE DROP FRIDAY AND FREEZING
TEMPS NEXT FRIDAY/SATURDAY EVENINGS:
Crosswinds and possible blowing dust Friday/Fri evening. GFS and
ECMWF solutions from thursday evening continue a trend to deepen a
full latitude trough over the central and southern plains into the
weekend...providing a glancing blow to us. Gusty east winds...likely
stronger than those with the 1st backdoor front earlier in the
week...will make handling your vehicle difficult...especially for
lager trucks. Highs Friday at this point look to fall as much as
20-25 degrees below normal. Locations that have not experienced
freezing temps so far, could see the first freezes of the season
Friday and Saturday nights next weekend.

.AVIATION...Valid 21/00Z-22/00Z... P6SM SKC-SCT250 through
period. Gusty W to SW winds overnight at 5- 15KTS with some gusts
to 25KTS on eastern mtn slopes including KELP through 08Z. Winds
will decrease toward morning but become W to NW at 10-20G30KTS
after 16Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Drier air has moved into the region, but with gusty winds. West to
southwest winds will blow at 10-20 mph through the evening before
decreasing overnight.  West to northwest winds of 15 to 20 mph are
likely Saturday with relative humidities in the 15 to 20 percent
range. A weak cold front moves through Saturday night and drops
temps about 5 degrees and brings gusty north to northeast winds.
Near average temperatures likely for early next week with generally
light winds.  Strong cold front possible late next week. Vent rates
continue in the very good to excellent categories Saturday before
falling off Sunday and Monday to poor to fair.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 62  80  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           58  79  48  73 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              53  77  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              54  77  41  71 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              41  56  28  56 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   53  75  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             46  69  37  72 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  49  78  41  75 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               49  75  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      60  77  51  74 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               52  83  38  74 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            60  83  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              57  74  43  72 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  58  81  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            59  78  49  74 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          57  77  45  72 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           50  76  39  72 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   53  78  43  75 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                54  78  43  75 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               56  78  44  71 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 47  65  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               45  66  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                44  63  30  62 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 37  68  25  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               48  75  38  73 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               50  77  37  73 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            34  72  24  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  44  71  34  72 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   36  76  27  78 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              38  74  26  75 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 47  74  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  51  78  41  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 49  79  41  75 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          52  80  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              51  76  42  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

22/26


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