Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS

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DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TEXAS /SANTA TERESA NEW MEXICO  930
140 PM SUNDAY JANUARY 8 2017


...LA NINA ADVISORY...


HERE IS THE PRESENT STATE OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AS OF JANUARY 3 2017: THERE ARE NO DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACTIVE
AT THIS TIME IN NEW MEXICO OTHER THAN SPOTTY AREAS OF ABNORMALLY DRY
"D0" CONDITIONS. THERE ARE NO DROUGHT CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IN FAR
WEST TEXAS.  THE ELEPHANT BUTTE RESERVOIR IS RUNNING AT 10.7 PERCENT
CAPACITY AS OF JANUARY 8 2017.

LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN WITH A DISTINCT TREND TOWARD ENSO NEUTRAL BY MARCH AND A 35%
CHANCE OF EL NINO CONDITIONS RETURNING THIS SUMMER INTO NEXT FALL.

AS OF JANUARY 8  PRECIPITATION AT EL PASO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS
RUNNING AT .18 INCHES WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. RAINFALL
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS FOR 2016 AVERAGE
AROUND 100% TO 150% NORMAL IN MANY AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF
THESE COUNTIES: SOUTH HUDSPETH, THE TULAROSA BASIN, EASTERN OTERO,
WEST EL PASO AND SOUTHERN DONA, WESTERN GRANT AND WESTERN HIDALGO
WHERE RAINFALL RANGED IN THE 50% TO 100% RANGE.


SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK... THE PREDICTIVE MODELS BY THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST FORECASTS NO CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
DROUGHT PATTERN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS
THROUGH MARCH 31 AT THIS TIME. THE CURRENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAP
CAN BE FOUND AT...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS...
THE LONG TERM CLIMATE OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OF
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
THROUGH MAY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AUGUST OVER
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.


IMPACTS...
D4 = EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY EXCEPTIONAL AND
WIDESPREAD CROP/PASTURE LOSSES WITH EXCEPTIONAL FIRE RISK AND SHORTAGES
OF WATER IN RESERVOIRS...STREAMS...AND WELLS CREATING WATER EMERGENCIES.
D3 = EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY MAJOR CROP/PASTURE
 LOSSES ALONG WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER AND WIDESPREAD WATER SHORTAGES OR
 RESTRICTIONS.
D2 = SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY CROP OR PASTURE
LOSSES. FIRE RISK IS VERY HIGH WITH SOME WATER SHORTAGES. IF WATER
USE RESTRICTIONS ARE NEEDED THEY WOULD BE TYPICALLY VOLUNTARY OR
LOCALLY MANDATED. D2 DROUGHT IS DEFINED AS A 1 IN 10 YEAR DROUGHT.
D1 = MODERATE CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS AND PASTURES
WITH HIGH FIRE RISK AND STREAM AND RESERVOIR LEVELS THAT ARE FOR THE MOST PART
LOW. WATER SHORTAGES START TO DEVELOP AND IN SOME AREAS VOLUNTARY WATER USE
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE REQUESTED.
D0 = ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS SIGNAL THE POSSIBLE ONSET OF DROUGHT WITH SLOW
CROP GROWTH ELEVATED FIRE RISK DANGER TO ABOVE AVERAGE.
REMEMBER THAT DROUGHT IS THE LEADING HAZARD IN ECONOMIC LOSES EACH YEAR IN THE
UNITED STATES.
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THIS PRODUCT WILL USUALLY BE UPDATED AT LEAST ONCE A MONTH OR MORE OFTEN IF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WEATHER...WATER SUPPLY...OR DROUGHT CONDITIONS OCCUR.
RELATED WEB SITES...
THE NWS WEB SITE FOR EL PASO HAS A NEW DROUGHT SECTION WHICH YOU CAN
ACCESS AT : WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EPZ/ELPDROUGHTPAGE

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT OR PAST DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...
U.S DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/MAPSANDDATA/COMPARISONSLIDER.ASPX
NWS PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS PAGE...HTTP://WWW.WATER.WEATEHR.GOV/PRECIP
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/SUPPLEMENTALINFO/LINKS.ASPX
WESTERN REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...HTTP://WWW.WRCC.DRI.EDU/INDEX
PREDICTION CENTER...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/
USGS...HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NM/NWIS/RT

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE NOAA NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND
REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTERS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
7955 AIRPORT ROAD
SANTA TERESA NM 88008
PHONE...575-589-4088
DAVID NOVLAN CLIMATE FOCAL POINT
DAVE.NOVLAN@NOAA.GOV
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EPZ/

$$

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