Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS

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DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TEXAS /SANTA TERESA NEW MEXICO  930
730 PM FRIDAY FEBRUARY 17 2017


LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER PRESENT IN THE CENTRAL EQUITORIAL
PACIFIC OCEAN. AS OF FEBRUARY 14 NO DROUGHT CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER
ANY OF SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.  THE
ELEPHANT BUTTE RESERVOIR AS OF FEBRUARY 17 IS RUNNING AT 13.8
PERCENT CAPACITY UP 3.1 PERCENT FROM JANUARY 8 2017.

NEUTRAL ENSO CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN AND MAY LAST INTO MAY JUNE JULY WITH A AROUND A 50%
CHANCE OF A RETURN TO EL NINO CONDITIONS AFTER JUNE JULY AUGUST.

AS OF FEBRUARY 17  PRECIPITATION AT EL PASO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS
RUNNING AT 1.21 INCHES WHICH IS 73% ABOVE NORMAL. RAINFALL ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS FOR THE LAST MONTH  IS
RUNNING FROM 100% TO 200% OF NORMAL.


SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK... THE PREDICTIVE MODELS BY THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST FORECASTS NO CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
DROUGHT PATTERN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS
THROUGH MAY 31 AT THIS TIME. THE CURRENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAP
CAN BE FOUND AT...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS...
THE LONG TERM CLIMATE OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OF
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL,
NORMAL,  AND ABOVE BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS YEAR ALONG WITH  ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS YEAR OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.


IMPACTS...
D4 = EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY EXCEPTIONAL AND
WIDESPREAD CROP/PASTURE LOSSES WITH EXCEPTIONAL FIRE RISK AND SHORTAGES
OF WATER IN RESERVOIRS...STREAMS...AND WELLS CREATING WATER EMERGENCIES.
D3 = EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY MAJOR CROP/PASTURE
 LOSSES ALONG WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER AND WIDESPREAD WATER SHORTAGES OR
 RESTRICTIONS.
D2 = SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY CROP OR PASTURE
LOSSES. FIRE RISK IS VERY HIGH WITH SOME WATER SHORTAGES. IF WATER
USE RESTRICTIONS ARE NEEDED THEY WOULD BE TYPICALLY VOLUNTARY OR
LOCALLY MANDATED. D2 DROUGHT IS DEFINED AS A 1 IN 10 YEAR DROUGHT.
D1 = MODERATE CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS AND PASTURES
WITH HIGH FIRE RISK AND STREAM AND RESERVOIR LEVELS THAT ARE FOR THE MOST PART
LOW. WATER SHORTAGES START TO DEVELOP AND IN SOME AREAS VOLUNTARY WATER USE
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE REQUESTED.
D0 = ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS SIGNAL THE POSSIBLE ONSET OF DROUGHT WITH SLOW
CROP GROWTH ELEVATED FIRE RISK DANGER TO ABOVE AVERAGE.
REMEMBER THAT DROUGHT IS THE LEADING HAZARD IN ECONOMIC LOSES EACH YEAR IN THE
UNITED STATES.
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THIS PRODUCT WILL USUALLY BE UPDATED AT LEAST ONCE A MONTH OR MORE OFTEN IF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WEATHER...WATER SUPPLY...OR DROUGHT CONDITIONS OCCUR.
RELATED WEB SITES...
THE NWS WEB SITE FOR EL PASO HAS A NEW DROUGHT SECTION WHICH YOU CAN
ACCESS AT : WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EPZ/ELPDROUGHTPAGE

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT OR PAST DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...
U.S DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/MAPSANDDATA/COMPARISONSLIDER.ASPX
NWS PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS PAGE...HTTP://WWW.WATER.WEATEHR.GOV/PRECIP
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/SUPPLEMENTALINFO/LINKS.ASPX
WESTERN REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...HTTP://WWW.WRCC.DRI.EDU/INDEX
PREDICTION CENTER...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/
USGS...HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NM/NWIS/RT

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE NOAA NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND
REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTERS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
7955 AIRPORT ROAD
SANTA TERESA NM 88008
PHONE...575-589-4088
DAVID NOVLAN CLIMATE FOCAL POINT
DAVE.NOVLAN@NOAA.GOV
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EPZ/

$$

NOVLAN
AXUS74 KEPZ 292036 CCA
DGTEPZ
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