Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS

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000
AXUS74 KEPZ 240403 CCA
DGTEPZ
NMZ022>025-030>32-TXC055>056-


DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TEXAS /SANTA TERESA NEW MEXICO
900 PM FEB 23 2014

...PRESENT STATE OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS AS OF FEB 18: ALL OF SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO IS IN MODERATE DROUGHT EXCEPT FOR
WESTERN LUNA AND HIDALGO AND WESTERN GRANT COUNTIES AND THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF OTERO COUNTY WHICH ARE IN SEVERE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS...

...FAR WEST TEXAS: MODERATE DROUGHT IN WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY AND
ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS IN EASTERN EL PASO AND WESTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTIES...

SYNOPSIS...

AS OF FEB 23 2014 ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS CONTINUED AND ARE FAVORED INTO
THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE INTO THE SPRING OF 2014. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS IN THE ENSO 3.4 REGION OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN
USED TO MONITOR ENSO CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE NEUTRAL RANGE
THROUGH THE SPRING OF 2014 WITH NOW A FORECAST TOWARD LOWER END EL
NINO VALUES BY SUMMER INTO THE FALL OF 2014.


THE EL PASO AREA RECEIVED 9.51 INCHES OF RAIN FOR 2013 JUST SHY OF
THE 30 YEAR AVERAGE OF 9.71 INCHES. SO FAR INTO 2014...EL PASO HAS
ONLY A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION SINCE JAN 1 AND IS RUNNING .79 INCHES
BELOW NORMAL AS OF 02/23/2014. THIS IS THE 5TH TIME SINCE 1879 THAT
EL PASO RECEIVED NO PRECIPITATION DURING JANUARY. THE STATE OF NEW
MEXICO HAS HAD NO PRECIPITATION OF ANY CONSEQUENCE FOR JANUARY WITH
ONLY THE TOWN OF GILA HOT SPRINGS SHOWING .02 INCHES. JANUARY 2014
RANKED THE DRIEST EVER FOR THE STATE OF NEW MEXICO...THE SECOND
DRIEST EVER FOR ARIZONA...AND THE 5TH DRIEST EVER FOR TEXAS.


PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR 2013 FOR A FEW SELECT LOCATIONS
FOLLOW:
EL PASO........................ 9.51  AMTS IN INCHES
DELL CITY...................... 16.53
LAS  CRUCES.................... 6.42  STATE UNIV
SANTA TERESA .................. 11.18 KEPZ
DEMING......................... 10.01
ANIMAS......................... 06.60
GILA HOT SPRINGS............... 15.31
RED ROCK....................... 11.44
FAYWOOD........................ 11.40
WINSTON........................ 15.87
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES.......... 12.21
ELK............................ 14.97
HILLSBORO...................... 11.98
CLOUDCROFT..................... 28.67
OROGRANDE...................... 9.35

SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK...
AT THIS TIME THE LATEST PREDICTIVE MODELS OF BY THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST THAT THE PRESENT DROUGHT CATEGORIES
SHOULD PERSIST IN SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH MAY OF
THIS YEAR WITH DROUGHT LIKELY TO REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY SOME IN
HUDSPETH COUNTY OF FAR WEST TEXAS.

THE CURRENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAP CAN BE FOUND
AT...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS...
THE LONG TERM CLIMATE OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OF
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NOW PUTS ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
FAR WEST TEXAS IN THE "EQUAL CHANCES OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION
CATEGORY FOR MOST OF 2014 INDICATING THAT AT THIS TIME THERE IS NO
CLEAR CUT SIGNAL EITHER WAY.

THE SPRING AND SUMMER STREAMFLOW FORECAST AS OF FEB 1 2014 PREDICTS
THE RIO GRANDE BASIN IN SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO SHOULD RUN AROUND 25% TO
49% OF NORMAL. AT THIS TIME ELEPHANT BUTTE RESERVOIR IS RUNNING AT
14% CAPACITY AND 24% OF AVERAGE. THE SOIL MOISTURE OUTLOOK FOR THE
SPRING OF 2014 FOR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO IS FOR SOIL
MOISTURE TO RUN SOME 20 TO 40 MM BELOW NORMAL.


IMPACTS...
D4 = EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY EXCEPTIONAL
AND WIDESPREAD CROP/PASTURE LOSSES WITH EXCEPTIONAL FIRE RISK AND
SHORTAGES OF WATER IN RESERVOIRS...STREAMS...AND WELLS CREATING
WATER EMERGENCIES.
D3 = EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY MAJOR
CROP/PASTURE LOSSES ALONG WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER AND WIDESPREAD
WATER SHORTAGES OR RESTRICTIONS.
D2 = SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY CROP OR PASTURE
LOSSES. FIRE RISK IS VERY HIGH WITH SOME WATER SHORTAGES. IF WATER
ARE NEEDED THEY WOULD BE TYPICALLY VOLUNTARY OR LOCALLY MANDATED. D2
DROUGHT IS DEFINED AS A 1 IN 10 YEAR DROUGHT.
D1 = MODERATE CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS
AND PASTURES WITH HIGH FIRE RISK AND STREAM AND RESERVOIR LEVELS
THAT ARE FOR THE MOST PART LOW. WATER SHORTAGES START TO DEVELOP
AND IN SOME AREAS VOLUNTARY WATER USE RESTRICTIONS MAY BE REQUESTED.
D0 = ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS SIGNAL THE POSSIBLE ONSET OF DROUGHT
WITH SLOW CROP GROWTH ELEVATED FIRE RISK DANGER TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

REMEMBER THAT DROUGHT IS THE LEADING HAZARD IN ECONOMIC LOSES EACH
YEAR IN THE UNITED STATES.


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL USUALLY BE UPDATED AT LEAST ONCE A MONTH OR MORE
OFTEN IF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WEATHER...WATER SUPPLY...OR DROUGHT
CONDITIONS OCCUR.

RELATED WEB SITES...

THE NWS WEB SITE FOR EL PASO HAS A NEW DROUGHT SECTION WHICH YOU CAN
ACCESS AT : WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/EPZ/?N= ELECTROTYPE

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT OR PAST DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE
FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...U.S
DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML NWS
PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS PAGE...
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RFCSHARE/PRECIP_ANALYSIS_NEW.PHP
PUBLIC LANDS INFORMATION CENTER...
HTTP://PUBLICLANDS.ORG/FIRENEWS/PRESSRELEASES/NM.PHP
CLIMATOLOGY AND PALEOCLIMATOLOGY LINKS...
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/WHATIS/CLIMLINKS.HTM
WESTERN REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.WRCC.DRI.EDU/INDEX.HTML
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/
ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...
NWS...HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=ABQ
USGS...HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NM/NWIS/CURRENT?TYPE=FLOW

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE
NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...
THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTERS AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER.


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
7955 AIRPORT ROAD
SANTA TERESA NM 88008
PHONE...505-589-4088
DAVID NOVLAN CLIMATE FOCAL POINT
DAVE.NOVLAN@NOAA.GOV
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ELPASO

$$

NOVLAN





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