Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS

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DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TEXAS /SANTA TERESA NEW MEXICO  930
950 AM SUNDAY JULY 31 2016

...ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS IN EFFECT...
...LA NINA WATCH IS IN EFFECT...


HERE IS THE PRESENT STATE OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AS OF JULY 26 2016: MODERATE DROUGHT(D1)HAS SPREAD EASTWARD
FROM ARIZONA INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF GRANT AND HIDALGO COUNTIES.
WHILE THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO IS IN ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS (D0) ALONG WITH EL PASO COUNTY, TEXAS. HUDSPETH COUNTY HAS
NO DROUGHT CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

LA NINA IS FAVORED TO DEVELOP DURING AUGUST-OCTOBER 2016 WITH ABOUT
A 55%-60% OF LA NINA DURING THE FALL AND WINTER OF 2016-2017.

AS OF JULY 26  PRECIPITATION AT EL PASO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS
RUNNING AT 29 PERCENT OF NORMAL. PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS ESPECIALLY DURING THE PAST 30 DAYS  IS
RUNNING OVER FROM 20% TO 50% NORMAL EXCEPT FOR SOME SELECT
LOCATIONS IN THE GILA WILDERNESS AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.
ELEPHANT BUTTE RESERVOIR IS RUNNING AT 14% CAPACITY.


SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK... THE PREDICTIVE MODELS OF BY THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST THAT THE PRESENT DROUGHT CATEGORIES
SHOULD STAY THE SAME MOST AREAS AND MAY EVEN IMPROVE SOME OVER THE
EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO THROUGH OCTOBER 31
2016. THE CURRENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAP CAN BE FOUND
AT...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS...
THE LONG TERM CLIMATE OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OF
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EQUAL CHANCES OF ALL THREE CATEGORIES
OF PRECIPITATION (BELOW NORMAL, NORMAL, ABOVE NORMAL ARE FORECAST
FOR THE BORDERLAND BEGINNING SEPTEMBER 2016 TO BE IN THE BELOW
NORMAL CATEGORY AND CONTINUE THROUGH APRIL 2017 REFLECTING THE LA
NINA FORECAST.


IMPACTS...
D4 = EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY EXCEPTIONAL AND
WIDESPREAD CROP/PASTURE LOSSES WITH EXCEPTIONAL FIRE RISK AND SHORTAGES
OF WATER IN RESERVOIRS...STREAMS...AND WELLS CREATING WATER EMERGENCIES.
D3 = EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY MAJOR CROP/PASTURE
 LOSSES ALONG WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER AND WIDESPREAD WATER SHORTAGES OR
 RESTRICTIONS.
D2 = SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY CROP OR PASTURE LOSSES.
FIRE RISK IS VERY HIGH WITH SOME WATER SHORTAGES. IF WATER ARE NEEDED THEY
WOULD BE TYPICALLY VOLUNTARY OR LOCALLY MANDATED. D2 DROUGHT IS DEFINED AS
A 1 IN 10 YEAR DROUGHT.
D1 = MODERATE CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS AND PASTURES
WITH HIGH FIRE RISK AND STREAM AND RESERVOIR LEVELS THAT ARE FOR THE MOST PART
LOW. WATER SHORTAGES START TO DEVELOP AND IN SOME AREAS VOLUNTARY WATER USE
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE REQUESTED.
D0 = ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS SIGNAL THE POSSIBLE ONSET OF DROUGHT WITH SLOW
CROP GROWTH ELEVATED FIRE RISK DANGER TO ABOVE AVERAGE.
REMEMBER THAT DROUGHT IS THE LEADING HAZARD IN ECONOMIC LOSES EACH YEAR IN THE
UNITED STATES.
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THIS PRODUCT WILL USUALLY BE UPDATED AT LEAST ONCE A MONTH OR MORE OFTEN IF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WEATHER...WATER SUPPLY...OR DROUGHT CONDITIONS OCCUR.
RELATED WEB SITES...
THE NWS WEB SITE FOR EL PASO HAS A NEW DROUGHT SECTION WHICH YOU CAN
ACCESS AT : WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/EPZ/?N= ELECTROTYPE

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT OR PAST DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...U.S DROUGHT
MONITOR...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML NWS PRECIPITATION
ANALYSIS PAGE...
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RFCSHARE/PRECIP_ANALYSIS_NEW.PHP PUBLIC
LANDS INFORMATION CENTER...
HTTP://PUBLICLANDS.ORG/FIRENEWS/PRESSRELEASES/NM.PHP CLIMATOLOGY AND
PALEOCLIMATOLOGY LINKS...
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/WHATIS/CLIMLINKS.HTM WESTERN REGIONAL
CLIMATE CENTER... HTTP://WWW.WRCC.DRI.EDU/INDEX.HTML CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/ ADDITIONAL RIVER
INFORMATION... NWS...HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=ABQ
USGS...HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NM/NWIS/CURRENT?TYPE=FLOW

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE NOAA NATIONAL
 WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND
REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTERS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
7955 AIRPORT ROAD
SANTA TERESA NM 88008
PHONE...505-589-4088
DAVID NOVLAN CLIMATE FOCAL POINT
DAVE.NOVLAN@NOAA.GOV
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ELPASO

$$

NOVLAN
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