Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS

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DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TEXAS /SANTA TERESA NEW MEXICO  930
230 PM JAN 18 2016

...EL NINO ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT...

.PRESENT STATE OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AS OF
JANUARY 12 2016: OTHER THAN A SMALL AREA OF ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS
IN SE OTERO COUNTY AROUND CROW FLATS...ALL OF SOUTH SOUTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS IS DROUGHT FREE.

AN EL NINO ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT. EL NINO HAS PEAKED IN DECEMBER
AND WILL WEAKEN WITH A TRANSITION TO AN ENSO NEUTRAL IN LATE SPRING
OR EARLY SUMMER. AS OF JANUARY 18 PRECIPITATION AT EL PASO
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS RUNNING AT 219 PERCENT OF NORMAL COURTESY
OF EL NINO. ALSO PRECIPITATION FOR 2015 FOR EL PASO WAS 39 PERCENT
ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST
TEXAS DURING 2015 RAN 100% - 200% ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF THE
SACRAMENTOS AND EAST OF THE GILA WILDERNESS WHILE WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND EAST OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS PRECIPITATION
DROPPED TO 50% TO 100% OF NORMAL. THE ELEPHANT BUTTE RESERVOIR IS
RUNNING AT 17.5% CAPACITY AS OF JANUARY 8, 2016 AND SLOWLY CONTINUES
TO RISE.


SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK...
AT THIS TIME THE LATEST PREDICTIVE MODELS OF BY THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST THAT THE PRESENT DROUGHT CATEGORIES
SHOULD STAY THE SAME THROUGH MARCH 31 2016. THE CURRENT U.S.
DROUGHT MONITOR MAP CAN BE FOUND
AT...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS...
THE LONG TERM CLIMATE OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OF
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS KEYING IN ON THE ONGOING EL NINO
EVENT AND NOW PUTS ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS IN
THE "ABOVE" NORMAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH JUNE 2016.


IMPACTS...
D4 = EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY EXCEPTIONAL AND
WIDESPREAD CROP/PASTURE LOSSES WITH EXCEPTIONAL FIRE RISK AND SHORTAGES
OF WATER IN RESERVOIRS...STREAMS...AND WELLS CREATING WATER EMERGENCIES.
D3 = EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY MAJOR CROP/PASTURE
 LOSSES ALONG WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER AND WIDESPREAD WATER SHORTAGES OR
 RESTRICTIONS.
D2 = SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY CROP OR PASTURE LOSSES.
FIRE RISK IS VERY HIGH WITH SOME WATER SHORTAGES. IF WATER ARE NEEDED THEY
WOULD BE TYPICALLY VOLUNTARY OR LOCALLY MANDATED. D2 DROUGHT IS DEFINED AS
A 1 IN 10 YEAR DROUGHT.
D1 = MODERATE CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS AND PASTURES
WITH HIGH FIRE RISK AND STREAM AND RESERVOIR LEVELS THAT ARE FOR THE MOST PART
LOW. WATER SHORTAGES START TO DEVELOP AND IN SOME AREAS VOLUNTARY WATER USE
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE REQUESTED.
D0 = ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS SIGNAL THE POSSIBLE ONSET OF DROUGHT WITH SLOW
CROP GROWTH ELEVATED FIRE RISK DANGER TO ABOVE AVERAGE.
REMEMBER THAT DROUGHT IS THE LEADING HAZARD IN ECONOMIC LOSES EACH YEAR IN THE
UNITED STATES.
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THIS PRODUCT WILL USUALLY BE UPDATED AT LEAST ONCE A MONTH OR MORE OFTEN IF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WEATHER...WATER SUPPLY...OR DROUGHT CONDITIONS OCCUR.
RELATED WEB SITES...
THE NWS WEB SITE FOR EL PASO HAS A NEW DROUGHT SECTION WHICH YOU CAN
ACCESS AT : WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/EPZ/?N= ELECTROTYPE

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT OR PAST DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...U.S DROUGHT
MONITOR...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML NWS PRECIPITATION
ANALYSIS PAGE...
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RFCSHARE/PRECIP_ANALYSIS_NEW.PHP PUBLIC
LANDS INFORMATION CENTER...
HTTP://PUBLICLANDS.ORG/FIRENEWS/PRESSRELEASES/NM.PHP CLIMATOLOGY AND
PALEOCLIMATOLOGY LINKS...
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/WHATIS/CLIMLINKS.HTM WESTERN REGIONAL
CLIMATE CENTER... HTTP://WWW.WRCC.DRI.EDU/INDEX.HTML CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/ ADDITIONAL RIVER
INFORMATION... NWS...HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=ABQ
USGS...HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NM/NWIS/CURRENT?TYPE=FLOW

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE NOAA NATIONAL
 WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND
REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTERS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
7955 AIRPORT ROAD
SANTA TERESA NM 88008
PHONE...505-589-4088
DAVID NOVLAN CLIMATE FOCAL POINT
DAVE.NOVLAN@NOAA.GOV
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ELPASO

$$

NOVLAN
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