Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS

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DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TEXAS /SANTA TERESA NEW MEXICO  930
850 AM AUG 01 2015

...EL NINO ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT...

...PRESENT STATE OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AS OF
JULY 28 2015: SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO: MOST OF OTERO COUNTY IS DROUGHT
FREE EXCEPT FOR SOUTHEAST OTERO WHICH IS ABNORMALLY DRY. THE REST OF
NEW MEXICO HAS ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO MODERATE DROUGHT. FAR
WEST TEXAS: DROUGHT FREE.

AN EL NINO ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT. THERE IS A 90% CHANCE OF EL
NINO CONTINUING THROUGH THE SUMMER WITH AN 80-90% PROBABILITY FOR
THE REMAINING YEAR. AS OF AUGUST 1 PRECIPITATION AT EL PASO IS
RUNNING ABOUT 130 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE ELEPHANT BUTTE RESERVOIR IS
RUNNING AT 14.4% CAPACITY AS OF 31 JULY 2015.

AS OF JUN 30 THE FOLLOWING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
AT SELECT STATIONS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND:
EL PASO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...................2.72
SANTA TERESA FORECAST OFFICE....................2.35
DEMING..........................................3.08
ANIMAS..........................................4.39
FAYWOOD.........................................4.62
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES...........................4.93
WINSTON.........................................34.71
GILA HOT SPRINGS................................8.1
TULAROSA........................................5.43
CLOUDCROFT......................................12.21 INCHES

SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK...
AT THIS TIME THE LATEST PREDICTIVE MODELS OF BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER FORECAST THAT THE PRESENT DROUGHT CATEGORIES SHOULD IMPROVE
AND MAY BE REMOVED IN SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH OCTOBER 31 2015.
THE CURRENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAP CAN BE FOUND
AT...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS...
THE LONG TERM CLIMATE OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OF THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS KEYING IN ON AN EL NINO EVENT AND NOW PUTS
ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS IN THE "ABOVE" NORMAL
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH MAY 2016. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE EQUAL CATEGORY TO BELOW NORMAL CATEGORY THROUGH JUNE
2016.


IMPACTS...
D4 = EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY EXCEPTIONAL AND
WIDESPREAD CROP/PASTURE LOSSES WITH EXCEPTIONAL FIRE RISK AND SHORTAGES
OF WATER IN RESERVOIRS...STREAMS...AND WELLS CREATING WATER EMERGENCIES.
D3 = EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY MAJOR CROP/PASTURE
 LOSSES ALONG WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER AND WIDESPREAD WATER SHORTAGES OR
 RESTRICTIONS.
D2 = SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY CROP OR PASTURE LOSSES.
FIRE RISK IS VERY HIGH WITH SOME WATER SHORTAGES. IF WATER ARE NEEDED THEY
WOULD BE TYPICALLY VOLUNTARY OR LOCALLY MANDATED. D2 DROUGHT IS DEFINED AS
A 1 IN 10 YEAR DROUGHT.
D1 = MODERATE CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS AND PASTURES
WITH HIGH FIRE RISK AND STREAM AND RESERVOIR LEVELS THAT ARE FOR THE MOST PART
LOW. WATER SHORTAGES START TO DEVELOP AND IN SOME AREAS VOLUNTARY WATER USE
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE REQUESTED.
D0 = ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS SIGNAL THE POSSIBLE ONSET OF DROUGHT WITH SLOW
CROP GROWTH ELEVATED FIRE RISK DANGER TO ABOVE AVERAGE.
REMEMBER THAT DROUGHT IS THE LEADING HAZARD IN ECONOMIC LOSES EACH YEAR IN THE
UNITED STATES.
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THIS PRODUCT WILL USUALLY BE UPDATED AT LEAST ONCE A MONTH OR MORE OFTEN IF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WEATHER...WATER SUPPLY...OR DROUGHT CONDITIONS OCCUR.
RELATED WEB SITES...
THE NWS WEB SITE FOR EL PASO HAS A NEW DROUGHT SECTION WHICH YOU CAN
ACCESS AT : WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/EPZ/?N= ELECTROTYPE

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT OR PAST DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...U.S DROUGHT
MONITOR...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML NWS PRECIPITATION
ANALYSIS PAGE...
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RFCSHARE/PRECIP_ANALYSIS_NEW.PHP PUBLIC
LANDS INFORMATION CENTER...
HTTP://PUBLICLANDS.ORG/FIRENEWS/PRESSRELEASES/NM.PHP CLIMATOLOGY AND
PALEOCLIMATOLOGY LINKS...
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/WHATIS/CLIMLINKS.HTM WESTERN REGIONAL
CLIMATE CENTER... HTTP://WWW.WRCC.DRI.EDU/INDEX.HTML CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/ ADDITIONAL RIVER
INFORMATION... NWS...HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=ABQ
USGS...HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NM/NWIS/CURRENT?TYPE=FLOW

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE NOAA NATIONAL
 WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND
REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTERS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
7955 AIRPORT ROAD
SANTA TERESA NM 88008
PHONE...505-589-4088
DAVID NOVLAN CLIMATE FOCAL POINT
DAVE.NOVLAN@NOAA.GOV
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ELPASO

$$

NOVLAN
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