Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS

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DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TEXAS /SANTA TERESA NEW MEXICO  930
750 PM FRIDAY NOVEMBER 25 2016


...LA NINA ADVISORY...


HERE IS THE PRESENT STATE OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AS OF NOVEMBER 25 2016: THERE ARE NO DROUGHT CONDITIONS
ACTIVE AT THIS TIME IN NEW MEXICO OTHER SPOTTY AREAS OF ABNORMALLY
DRY D0 CONDITIONS. THERE ARE NO DROUGHT CONDITIONS AT THIS IN FAR
WEST TEXAS. NEW MEXICO EXPERIENCE IS HOTTEST OCTOBER ON RECORD WITH
AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 5.8 DEGREES F ABOVE AVERAGE. THE ELEPHANT
BUTTE RESERVOIR IS RUNNING AT 7.6% CAPACITY AS OF NOVEMBER 15.

LA NINA CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED DURING OCTOBER IN THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC OCEAN AND CONTINUE AT THIS TIME.  THERE IS A 70% CHANCE FOR
LA NINA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THIS FALL INTO
WINTER DROPPING TO A 35% CHANCE BY EARLY SPRING 2017. AT THIS TIME
THERE IS AN 80% CHANCE ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY SPRING
INTO THE SUMMER OF 2917.

AS OF NOVEMBER 25  PRECIPITATION AT EL PASO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS
RUNNING AT 97% OF NORMAL. PRECIPITATION IS RUNNING 50% TO 90% NORMAL
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE OF NEW MEXICO AND 100% TO
150% NORMAL EAST OF THE DIVIDE YEAR TO DATE AND ALSO IN THE GILA
WILDERNESS.


SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK... THE PREDICTIVE MODELS OF BY THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST IS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR  DROUGHT TO
REDEVELOP OVER THE MOST SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE OF NEW MEXICO
THROUGH FEBRUARY 28, 2017. THE CURRENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAP CAN
BE FOUND AT...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS...
THE LONG TERM CLIMATE OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OF
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THIS YEAR INTO THE
SPRING OF 2917 OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.


IMPACTS...
D4 = EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY EXCEPTIONAL AND
WIDESPREAD CROP/PASTURE LOSSES WITH EXCEPTIONAL FIRE RISK AND SHORTAGES
OF WATER IN RESERVOIRS...STREAMS...AND WELLS CREATING WATER EMERGENCIES.
D3 = EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY MAJOR CROP/PASTURE
 LOSSES ALONG WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER AND WIDESPREAD WATER SHORTAGES OR
 RESTRICTIONS.
D2 = SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY CROP OR PASTURE LOSSES.
FIRE RISK IS VERY HIGH WITH SOME WATER SHORTAGES. IF WATER ARE NEEDED THEY
WOULD BE TYPICALLY VOLUNTARY OR LOCALLY MANDATED. D2 DROUGHT IS DEFINED AS
A 1 IN 10 YEAR DROUGHT.
D1 = MODERATE CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS AND PASTURES
WITH HIGH FIRE RISK AND STREAM AND RESERVOIR LEVELS THAT ARE FOR THE MOST PART
LOW. WATER SHORTAGES START TO DEVELOP AND IN SOME AREAS VOLUNTARY WATER USE
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE REQUESTED.
D0 = ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS SIGNAL THE POSSIBLE ONSET OF DROUGHT WITH SLOW
CROP GROWTH ELEVATED FIRE RISK DANGER TO ABOVE AVERAGE.
REMEMBER THAT DROUGHT IS THE LEADING HAZARD IN ECONOMIC LOSES EACH YEAR IN THE
UNITED STATES.
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THIS PRODUCT WILL USUALLY BE UPDATED AT LEAST ONCE A MONTH OR MORE OFTEN IF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WEATHER...WATER SUPPLY...OR DROUGHT CONDITIONS OCCUR.
RELATED WEB SITES...
THE NWS WEB SITE FOR EL PASO HAS A NEW DROUGHT SECTION WHICH YOU CAN
ACCESS AT : WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/EPZ/?N= ELECTROTYPE

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT OR PAST DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...U.S DROUGHT
MONITOR...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML NWS PRECIPITATION
ANALYSIS PAGE...
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RFCSHARE/PRECIP_ANALYSIS_NEW.PHP PUBLIC
LANDS INFORMATION CENTER...
HTTP://PUBLICLANDS.ORG/FIRENEWS/PRESSRELEASES/NM.PHP CLIMATOLOGY AND
PALEOCLIMATOLOGY LINKS...
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/WHATIS/CLIMLINKS.HTM WESTERN REGIONAL
CLIMATE CENTER... HTTP://WWW.WRCC.DRI.EDU/INDEX.HTML CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/ ADDITIONAL RIVER
INFORMATION... NWS...HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=ABQ
USGS...HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NM/NWIS/CURRENT?TYPE=FLOW

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE NOAA NATIONAL
 WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND
REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTERS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
7955 AIRPORT ROAD
SANTA TERESA NM 88008
PHONE...505-589-4088
DAVID NOVLAN CLIMATE FOCAL POINT
DAVE.NOVLAN@NOAA.GOV
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ELPASO

$$

NOVLAN
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