Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS

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DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TEXAS /SANTA TERESA NEW MEXICO  930
300 PM MAY 21 2016

...EL NINO ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT...
...DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE SLOWLY STARTING BACK INTO THE BORDERLAND...
...LA NINA WATCH IS IN EFFECT AS ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
LATE SPRING INTO EARLY SUMMER 2016 AND LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS YEAR...


.PRESENT STATE OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AS OF
MAY 21 2016: MODERATE DROUGHT(D1)HAS SPREAD EASTWARD FROM ARIZONA
INTO ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO EXCEPT FOR A STRIP OF ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS (D0) ALONG THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF LUNA, DONA ANA AND OTERO
COUNTIES. ALL OF EL PASO COUNTY AND A NARROW PORTION OF EXTREME
NORTHEAST HUDSPETH COUNTY ALSO ARE UNDER ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS
(D0).

AN EL NINO ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT. EL NINO HAS PEAKED IN DECEMBER
AND IS WEAKENING FAIRLY RAPIDLY. THE TRANSITION TO AN ENSO NEUTRAL IN
LATE SPRING OR EARLY SUMMER IS VERY LIKELY. HISTORICALLY STRONG EL
NINO EVENTS HAVE BEEN FOLLOWED BY STRONG LA NINA EVENTS WITH ABOUT
A 50% PROBABILITY.

. AS OF MAY 21  PRECIPITATION AT EL PASO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS
RUNNING AT 36 PERCENT OF NORMAL. PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS ESPECIALLY DURING THE PAST 90 DAYS  IS
RUNNING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BORDERLAND AROUND ONE THIRD
OF NORMAL. THE ELEPHANT BUTTE RESERVOIR IS RUNNING AT 15% CAPACITY.


SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK...
AT THIS TIME THE LATEST PREDICTIVE MODELS OF BY THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST THAT THE PRESENT DROUGHT CATEGORIES
SHOULD STAY THE SAME THROUGH WORSEN SOME THROUGH JUNE 30 2016. THE
CURRENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAP CAN BE FOUND
AT...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS...
THE LONG TERM CLIMATE OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OF
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EQUAL CHANCES OF ALL THREE CATEGORIES
OF PRECIPITATION (BELOW NORMAL, NORMAL, ABOVE NORMAL ARE FORECAST
FOR THE BORDERLAND BEGINNING JUNE JULY AUGUST AND THE
BELOWNORMALCATEGORY FORECAST FOR SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER REFLECTING
THE FORECAST OF LA NIN CONDTIONS. AFTER OCTOBER FOR THE REMAINING
FALL AND WINTER SEASON OF 2016 VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS INDICATING THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER OF NOAA IS FORECASTING FAIRLY STRONG LA NINA
CONDITIONS.


IMPACTS...
D4 = EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY EXCEPTIONAL AND
WIDESPREAD CROP/PASTURE LOSSES WITH EXCEPTIONAL FIRE RISK AND SHORTAGES
OF WATER IN RESERVOIRS...STREAMS...AND WELLS CREATING WATER EMERGENCIES.
D3 = EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY MAJOR CROP/PASTURE
 LOSSES ALONG WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER AND WIDESPREAD WATER SHORTAGES OR
 RESTRICTIONS.
D2 = SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY CROP OR PASTURE LOSSES.
FIRE RISK IS VERY HIGH WITH SOME WATER SHORTAGES. IF WATER ARE NEEDED THEY
WOULD BE TYPICALLY VOLUNTARY OR LOCALLY MANDATED. D2 DROUGHT IS DEFINED AS
A 1 IN 10 YEAR DROUGHT.
D1 = MODERATE CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS AND PASTURES
WITH HIGH FIRE RISK AND STREAM AND RESERVOIR LEVELS THAT ARE FOR THE MOST PART
LOW. WATER SHORTAGES START TO DEVELOP AND IN SOME AREAS VOLUNTARY WATER USE
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE REQUESTED.
D0 = ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS SIGNAL THE POSSIBLE ONSET OF DROUGHT WITH SLOW
CROP GROWTH ELEVATED FIRE RISK DANGER TO ABOVE AVERAGE.
REMEMBER THAT DROUGHT IS THE LEADING HAZARD IN ECONOMIC LOSES EACH YEAR IN THE
UNITED STATES.
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THIS PRODUCT WILL USUALLY BE UPDATED AT LEAST ONCE A MONTH OR MORE OFTEN IF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WEATHER...WATER SUPPLY...OR DROUGHT CONDITIONS OCCUR.
RELATED WEB SITES...
THE NWS WEB SITE FOR EL PASO HAS A NEW DROUGHT SECTION WHICH YOU CAN
ACCESS AT : WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/EPZ/?N= ELECTROTYPE

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT OR PAST DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...U.S DROUGHT
MONITOR...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML NWS PRECIPITATION
ANALYSIS PAGE...
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RFCSHARE/PRECIP_ANALYSIS_NEW.PHP PUBLIC
LANDS INFORMATION CENTER...
HTTP://PUBLICLANDS.ORG/FIRENEWS/PRESSRELEASES/NM.PHP CLIMATOLOGY AND
PALEOCLIMATOLOGY LINKS...
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/WHATIS/CLIMLINKS.HTM WESTERN REGIONAL
CLIMATE CENTER... HTTP://WWW.WRCC.DRI.EDU/INDEX.HTML CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/ ADDITIONAL RIVER
INFORMATION... NWS...HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=ABQ
USGS...HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NM/NWIS/CURRENT?TYPE=FLOW

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE NOAA NATIONAL
 WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND
REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTERS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
7955 AIRPORT ROAD
SANTA TERESA NM 88008
PHONE...505-589-4088
DAVID NOVLAN CLIMATE FOCAL POINT
DAVE.NOVLAN@NOAA.GOV
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ELPASO

$$

NOVLAN
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