Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS

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DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TEXAS /SANTA TERESA NEW MEXICO  930
900 AM APR 11 2016

...EL NINO ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT...
...DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE SLOWLY STARTING BACK INTO THE BORDERLAND...

.PRESENT STATE OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AS OF
APRIL 11 2016: DESPITE THE ONGOING EL NINO...MODERATE DROUGHT(D1)HAS
SPREAD EASTWARD FROM ARIZONA INTO ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO EXCEPT
FOR A STRIP OF ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS (D0) ALONG THE SOUTHERN 1/3
OF LUNA, DONA ANA AND OTERO COUNTIES. ALL OF EL PASO COUNTY AND A
NARROW PORTION OF EXTREME NORTHEAST HUDSPETH COUNTY ALSO ARE UNDER
ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS (D0).

AN EL NINO ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT. EL NINO HAS PEAKED IN DECEMBER
AND IS WEAKENING FAIRLY RAPIDLY. THE TRANSITION TO AN ENSO NEUTRAL IN
LATE SPRING OR EARLY SUMMER IS VERY LIKELY. HISTORICALLY STRONG EL
NINO EVENTS HAVE BEEN FOLLOWED BY STRONG LA NINA EVENTS WITH ABOUT
A 50% PROBABILITY.

. AS OF APRIL 04  PRECIPITATION AT EL PASO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS
RUNNING AT 47 PERCENT. PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
FAR WEST TEXAS ESPECIALLY DURING THE PAST 30 DAYS HAS REACHED RECORD
DRYNESS LEVELS FOR MARCH RUNNING IN SOME AREAS LESS THAN 15% OF
NORMAL. ONLY HUDSPETH COUNTY FAIRED HIGHER AROUND 50% NORMAL. THE
ELEPHANT BUTTE RESERVOIR IS RUNNING AT 20.2% CAPACITY AS OF APRIL
04, 2016.


SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK...
AT THIS TIME THE LATEST PREDICTIVE MODELS OF BY THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST THAT THE PRESENT DROUGHT CATEGORIES
SHOULD STAY THE SAME THROUGH WORSEN SOME THROUGH JUNE 30 2016. THE
CURRENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAP CAN BE FOUND
AT...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS...
THE LONG TERM CLIMATE OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OF
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE REFLECTS THE REMAINING EL NINO EVENT
AND PUTS ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS IN THE
"ABOVE" NORMAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.SO FAR EL NINO IS BEING
NOTED IN SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS FOR ITS "ABSENCE" IN
THE PRECIPITATION DEPARTMENT SINCE THE START OF THE NEW YEAR.
DESPITE ITS IMPACT IN SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS SO
FAR...THIS HAS BEEN A STRONG EL NINO (RUNNING NUMBER 2 OF ALL EVENTS
AND SOMETIMES FOR SHORT PERIODS NUMBER 1) ITS MAIN IMPACT HAVE BEEN
MAINLY IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IN
TERMS OF ABOVE  NORMAL PRECIPITATION. EQUAL CHANCES OF ALL THREE
CATEGORIES OF PRECIPTIATION (BELOW NORMAL, NORMAL, ABOVE NORMA) ARE
FORECAST FOR THE BORDERLNAD BEGINNING JUNE JULY AUGUST AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER. AFTER OCTOBER FOR THE
REAMINING FALL AND WINTER SEASON OF 2016 VERY DRY CONDTIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN NEW EXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS INDICATING THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OF NOAA IS FORECASTING FAIRLY STRONG LA
NINA CONDITIONS.


IMPACTS...
D4 = EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY EXCEPTIONAL AND
WIDESPREAD CROP/PASTURE LOSSES WITH EXCEPTIONAL FIRE RISK AND SHORTAGES
OF WATER IN RESERVOIRS...STREAMS...AND WELLS CREATING WATER EMERGENCIES.
D3 = EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY MAJOR CROP/PASTURE
 LOSSES ALONG WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER AND WIDESPREAD WATER SHORTAGES OR
 RESTRICTIONS.
D2 = SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY CROP OR PASTURE LOSSES.
FIRE RISK IS VERY HIGH WITH SOME WATER SHORTAGES. IF WATER ARE NEEDED THEY
WOULD BE TYPICALLY VOLUNTARY OR LOCALLY MANDATED. D2 DROUGHT IS DEFINED AS
A 1 IN 10 YEAR DROUGHT.
D1 = MODERATE CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS AND PASTURES
WITH HIGH FIRE RISK AND STREAM AND RESERVOIR LEVELS THAT ARE FOR THE MOST PART
LOW. WATER SHORTAGES START TO DEVELOP AND IN SOME AREAS VOLUNTARY WATER USE
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE REQUESTED.
D0 = ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS SIGNAL THE POSSIBLE ONSET OF DROUGHT WITH SLOW
CROP GROWTH ELEVATED FIRE RISK DANGER TO ABOVE AVERAGE.
REMEMBER THAT DROUGHT IS THE LEADING HAZARD IN ECONOMIC LOSES EACH YEAR IN THE
UNITED STATES.
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THIS PRODUCT WILL USUALLY BE UPDATED AT LEAST ONCE A MONTH OR MORE OFTEN IF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WEATHER...WATER SUPPLY...OR DROUGHT CONDITIONS OCCUR.
RELATED WEB SITES...
THE NWS WEB SITE FOR EL PASO HAS A NEW DROUGHT SECTION WHICH YOU CAN
ACCESS AT : WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/EPZ/?N= ELECTROTYPE

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT OR PAST DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...U.S DROUGHT
MONITOR...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML NWS PRECIPITATION
ANALYSIS PAGE...
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RFCSHARE/PRECIP_ANALYSIS_NEW.PHP PUBLIC
LANDS INFORMATION CENTER...
HTTP://PUBLICLANDS.ORG/FIRENEWS/PRESSRELEASES/NM.PHP CLIMATOLOGY AND
PALEOCLIMATOLOGY LINKS...
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/WHATIS/CLIMLINKS.HTM WESTERN REGIONAL
CLIMATE CENTER... HTTP://WWW.WRCC.DRI.EDU/INDEX.HTML CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/ ADDITIONAL RIVER
INFORMATION... NWS...HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=ABQ
USGS...HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NM/NWIS/CURRENT?TYPE=FLOW

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE NOAA NATIONAL
 WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND
REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTERS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
7955 AIRPORT ROAD
SANTA TERESA NM 88008
PHONE...505-589-4088
DAVID NOVLAN CLIMATE FOCAL POINT
DAVE.NOVLAN@NOAA.GOV
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ELPASO

$$

NOVLAN
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