Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 031853
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
153 PM EST TUE MAR 03 2015

...VALID 18Z TUE MAR 03 2015 - 00Z THU MAR 05 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 SE POF 15 SSE HNB 25 S LHQ 15 SW AFJ 15 ESE AFJ 25 SW LBE
15 NW 2G4 10 WSW 2G4 25 NNE EKN 10 SE W22 10 ESE CRW 10 W JKL
15 WNW EKQ 15 SSW CKV 20 E DYR 15 SSW HKA 15 S JBR 15 WNW JBR
30 SE POF.


...SOUTHERN OH VALLEY INTO SOUTHWESTERN PA/WV...

AGAIN..NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE EARLIER OUTLOOK AND THINKING.
THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETTING UP
IN ADVANCE OF THE POSITIVE TILTED MID/UPPER TROF EJECTING SLOWLY
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE
OH/MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AT LEAST THRU TUESDAY NIGHT..WITH A
TRANSITION ESPECIALLY FARTHER NORTH TO A WINTRY PRECIPITATION
EVENT ON WEDNESDAY.  WITH A CONTINUED DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
REGIME INTO WEDNESDAY..THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INCH ONLY
SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST THRU THE OH VALLEY DURING THE PERIOD..WITH
THE MOIST H85 SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND POOLING OF MOISTURE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT LEADING TO PWS APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES
VICINITY OF THE FRONT.  WHILE INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LACKING..THE
HIGH PWS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR  TRAINING/REPEAT CELL
ACTIVITY SHOULD SUPPORT SOME HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAINS..AT LEAST
THRU TUESDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2+
INCHES..MOST OF WHICH WILL FALL TUESDAY NIGHT..WHICH COULD CAUSE
SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS FROM THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH AND MS RIVERS
UP INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS..AND ESPECIALLY SO FROM KY INTO
THE MOUNTAINS OF WV AND SOUTHWESTERN PA WHERE FF GUIDANCE VALUES
ARE LOWER.

TERRY


$$




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