Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

000
FOUS30 KWBC 270827
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
427 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

...VALID 12Z WED APR 27 2016 - 12Z THU APR 28 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
GEZ 25 SSW ILN 20 NNW JKL 15 NNW SME 30 W BWG M30 20 S SAR
35 SSW PPQ 30 SW EOK MUT 20 SE MLI 20 SE C75 GEZ.


MIDWEST...

STGLY DIFFLUENT UPR JET PATTERN ACRS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST WILL
PRIME REGION FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVIER CONVECTIVE RAINS ESPECIALLY
LATER WED/WED EVENING WITH MODEST SWLY MSTR FLUX AHEAD OF CNTL
U.S. COLD FRONT FEEDING INTO QSTNRY E/W FRONT.  STG INSTABILITY
DVLPG TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND IN ADVANCE OF MID LEVEL DRY
SLOT WILL HELP SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SHWER/TSTM ACTIVITY.  THERE
IS A DECENT SIGNAL IN THE HI RES MODELS SUPPORTING HEAVIER RAINS
ACRS SRN IL INTO SRN IN/WRN KY WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL
GLOBAL MODELS..THOUGH THE LATTER MAY BE A TAD TOO FAR NORTH WITH
THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS.  STORM PROPAGATION VECTORS SUGGEST ANY
ORGANIZED MCS THAT MAY DVLP HERE COULD BE SLOW MOVING THRU THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING PROVIDING SOME THREAT OF RUNOFF CONCERNS.  SOME
LOCALIZED GREATER THAN 3 INCH SHORT TERM RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE PSBL
WHICH WOULD EXCEED SOME OF THE LOWER FFG VALUES ACRS THIS REGION.


SULLIVAN
$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.