Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 060705
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
305 AM EDT MON JUL 06 2015

...VALID 12Z MON JUL 06 2015 - 12Z TUE JUL 07 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 NE COS 20 NNE TAD 20 WSW CAO 20 WSW DHT 20 WSW DUX
15 WNW BGD 20 S PYX 10 WSW PTT 10 NE MHK 10 NW STJ 30 NW CDJ
20 NE CDJ 15 SE CDJ 35 SSE LXT 10 SW CFV PWA 50 SW F05
15 WNW SNK 40 E HOB 40 ENE ATS 35 N ROW 15 E CQC 10 SW SKX
10 NW ALS 25 ENE MYP 35 SE CCU 25 NW AFF 10 NE COS.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 WNW LTS 35 SSW CDS 40 ENE LBB 15 ENE LBB 10 SW PVW 25 N PVW
10 SE PPA 25 WNW AVK 35 NE EWK 15 NE TOP 10 W MCI MKC 10 NE OJC
15 SSE IXD 20 NNE CNU END 25 WNW LTS.


THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A VERY CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS PERIOD..AND SEE NO REASON TO GO AGAINST THIS IDEA.
THE CONVECTION AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE SUPPORTED THRU THE
UPPER MS VALLEY..NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES AMD PARTS OF THE MIDWEST
BY DECENT HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 TROF MOVING THRU THE
REGION AND BY A FRONTAL WAVE LIFTING UP THE FRONT DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY.  EXPECT SOME AREAL AVERAGE 1-2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FROM PORTIONS OF WI INTO THE U.P. OF MI.  FARTHER SOUTH..STRONG
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE VICINITY OF THE SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM KS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE..AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INTO THIS BOUNDARY MONDAY
NIGHT..AND THE MODEL FORECAST OF A WEAK H5 S/WV MOVING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES..SHOULD
ALL COMBINE TO PRODUCE THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE FRONT.  POOLING OF PWS TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 2 INCHES NEAR
THE BOUNDARY..ALONG WITH WHAT COULD BE SOME TEMPORARY CELL
TRAINING..SUGGESTS HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS..WITH
FLOODING CONCERNS INCREASING ON MONDAY NIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.  AREAL AVERAGE 1-3 INCH RAINFALL
TOTALS EXPECTED FROM EASTERN KS INTO WESTERN OK AND THE TX
PANHANDLE..WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF 3+ INCHES CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE.  AS A RESULT..HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISKS OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.


ALTHOUGH SOME LOWERING OF THE HEIGHTS AND FLATTENING OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN RIDGE OCCURS THIS PERIOD..SOME OF THE
SAME FEATURES WILL STILL BE IN PLAY..INCLUDING WEAK SHORTWAVES
RIDING UP THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND ALSO TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE WHICH HAS WORKED
ITS WAY INTO THE PARTS OF THE REGION.  THESE PARAMETERS..ALONG
WITH HEATING..SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER PERIOD OF INCREASED
CONVECTION THRU MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES..WITH THE ACTIVITY THRU
PARTS OF CO AND NM ADDITIONALLY ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW.   WHERE THIS UPSLOPE FLOW COMES INTO PLAY THRU PARTS OF NM
AND CO..SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED AND KEPT THE
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINS IN THIS AREA ALSO.

TERRY
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