Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 270047
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
846 PM EDT MON JUN 26 2017

...VALID 01Z TUE JUN 27 2017 - 12Z TUE JUN 27 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 NE TTS 25 ESE TTS 15 SSE MLB 30 SW MLB 15 ESE GIF 15 E BKV
15 SSW OCF 20 NNE CTY 25 SE AYS 30 SSE SVN 55 E SSI.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
60 ESE BRO 30 WSW KOPM 15 NNE CRP 10 NNW VCT 25 SSE 11R
45 ENE CXO 25 S ACP 15 ESE 7R3 9F2 15 NNE KMYT.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 W DRT 50 NNW DRT 10 WSW E29 45 E SJT 10 S 7F9 15 NE 05F
25 E GTU 20 SE HYI 25 SSW SKF 30 S UVA 35 WNW MMPG.


2330 UTC UPDATE...

UPDATED THE DAY 1 ERO TO REFINE THE MARGINAL RISK AREAS ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST AND ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST BASED ON THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
MEANWHILE...HAVE INCLUDED ANOTHER MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX INTO THE HILL COUNTY...BASED ON THE
SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION PERCOLATING AHEAD OF THE MCV DROPPING SSE
FROM NORTHWEST TX. MIXED-LAYER CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG ALONG WITH
PWS BETWEEN 1.75-2.00" (MINIMAL DOWNDRAFT CAPE) WILL PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC SETUP FOR LOCALIZED SHORT-TERM HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES...AOA 2 INCHES WITHIN AN HOUR...DESPITE THE
RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL INFLOW AND LIMITED RESIDENCE TIME OVER
ANY GIVEN AREA.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION
DISCUSSIONS OR MPDS #400-402.

HURLEY


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

...FLORIDA AND THE WESTERN GULF COAST...

A COUPLE OF MARGINAL THREATS FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN ON MONDAY, AS AN
ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY IS CONTAINING THE BULK OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WELL
SOUTH, BASICALLY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ACROSS FL TO THE WESTERN
GULF COAST. PERHAPS THE OPPORTUNE AREA FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
FROM SERN GA THROUGH THE NORTHERN FL PENINSULA AND SSW THROUGH THE
PENINSULA, AS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS PRESENT FROM GA INTO FL
AND A SHEAR AXIS/EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE FL PENINSULA.
LIGHT STEERING FLOW ALONG WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD LEAD
TO HEAVY RAIN RATES AND TOTALS OVER THE TWO STATES. MEANWHILE
UPSTREAM, THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY SOUTH OF LA INTO
SERN TX AND ALLOW MOIST ONSHORE FLOW TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SERN TX. NOT MUCH OF A CONSENSUS WITH THE HI-RES GUIDANCE ON
WHERE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS MIGHT SET UP, AS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER
THE PANHANDLE PERHAPS APPROACHES THE TX HILL COUNTRY.

MUSHER

$$





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