Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 300831
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
330 AM EST WED NOV 30 2016

...VALID 12Z WED NOV 30 2016 - 12Z THU DEC 01 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 ENE MKJ GSP 15 WSW HQU 25 S OZR 25 NNE KVOA 40 S KMIS
15 NNW KGHB 35 SW HBG 10 ESE MDQ 10 SSE JKL 20 NW 48I 20 E CKB
20 ENE W99 25 WNW SHD 15 SE LWB 15 ENE MKJ.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 E NMM 10 WNW 8A0 25 WSW OQT 20 ENE 1A6 15 N VJI 35 W MRN
20 SSW CEU 30 ENE TOI 20 ESE GZH 30 SSE PQL 35 W 9F2 30 NNE HSA
45 E NMM.



LOWER MS VALLEY---UPPER TN VALLEY---SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS MID TO UPPER TN VALLEY

THE CURRENT ELONGATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT AREA IN EFFECT
OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY WAS PUSHED
EASTWARD FOR THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD AFTER 1200
UTC---STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO
THE UPPER TN VALLEY AND TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND MOUTH OF
THE MS RIVER.  THE GREATEST EXCESSIVE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DURING
THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD WHEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR TRAINING OF CELLS IN A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION IN
AN AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS.  FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT AREA OF WELL DEFINED HEIGHT
FALLS EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROF OVER
THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION WILL CONTINUE INTO MOST OF WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THIS ANOMALOUS PW AXIS BEFORE THE
BEST DYNAMICS SHIFT FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BEGINS TO ACCELERATE TO THE EAST.  IN AREAS OF
TRAINING---ISOLATED 1-2" RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN AN HOUR AND ISOLATED
TOTALS OF 3-5" POSSIBLE.  AREAS ON THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN HEAVY RAINS IN THE
VICINITY OF EASTERN TN INTO FAR SOUTHEAST KY HAVE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINS TO MOVE ACROSS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

PLEASE SEE WPC`S MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION # 0780 VALID
UNTIL APPROXIMATELY 1200 UTC FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION FOR THE
ONGOING FLASH FLOOD THREAT PRIOR TO 1200 UTC.

ORAVEC
$$





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