Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 202107
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
506 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016

...VALID 2106Z WED JUL 20 2016 - 12Z THU JUL 21 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



EASTERN ND AND NORTHWESTERN MN...

A 6 TO 12 HR WINDOW OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS WILL POSSIBLY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINS ACROSS ERN ND INTO NWRN MN. A SLIGHT DIP
IN THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES SHOULD DRIVE A BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH
AND EAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. A
POOL OF 1.75 INCH PWS IS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THIS COLD FRONT
AND NORTH OF THE LARGE UPPER DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BASED OVER THE
MIDWEST. THIS FRONT SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE ELEVATED MOISTURE
CONTENT AND DEVELOPING SWRLY 20-30 KT 850MB LOW LEVEL JET TO ALLOW
MULTIPLE STREAKS OR LINE SEGMENTS OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP BUT
MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD OR DOWNSTREAM. THE GENERAL CORRIDOR THE
GUIDANCE IS FOCUSING ON IS ERN ND INTO NRN MN BUT THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS AND A LARGE PORTION OF THE HI-RES PACKAGE VARY ON EXACT
LATITUDE AND DEPTH... ALONG WITH WHETHER THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE
SEVERE WEATHER THAN ORGANIZED HEAVY RAIN. THOUGH PATTERN
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOR POTENTIAL MESO HEAVY RAIN... STRONG
JET DYNAMICS AND NORTH OF LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. PLUS 1HR
FFG NUMBERS ARE AS LOW AS .75 TO 1 INCH ALONG THE ND/MN BORDER OR
ALONG THE RED RIVER. THUS WITHOUT MODEL CONSENSUS BUT WITH
FAVORABLE FCST FIELDS AND CLIMATOLOGY... WPC WILL GO WITH A SEE
TEXT FOR LOCALIZED ISSUES.

MUSHER
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