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000
FOUS30 KWBC 170144
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
943 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

...VALID 03Z MON JUN 17 2013 - 00Z TUE JUN 18 2013...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NE JWG 45 WSW GCK 50 W HLC 35 W CNU 10 S SLG 15 SSW RKR
10 E ADH 20 NE JWG.


....KS INTO OK....

STILL LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN ESPECIALLY OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...WITH THE LATEST MODELS RUNS AGAIN FORECASTING A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO ROLL OUT OF THE KS HIGH PLAINS
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OK AND WESTERN AR.  THE H5 S/WV WHICH
SHOULD AID IN THIS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS NOW PUSHING INTO
WESTERN KS AND WILL TAP INTO A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET...WITH THE S/WV GENERALLY DROPPING A LITTLE SOUTH OF EAST THRU
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AS THE ACCOMPANYING LOW LEVEL JET
SHIFTS EASTWARD ALSO WHILE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.  ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME MODEL QPF DIFFERENCES AS TO
WHERE EXACTLY THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...THERE CONTINUES TO BE MORE GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE REGION...SO CONFIDENCE IS
AT LEAST RATHER HIGH ON THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
TODAY`S 12-18Z RUNS HAVE COME IN A LITTLE FARTHER WEST WITH THE
RAINFALL MAX OVER KS/OK THAN DID LAST NIGHTS 00Z ECMWF HIRES...SO
STAYED WITH THIS SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT.  SYSTEM SHOULD BE
PROGRESSIVE...BUT STILL EXPECT SOME LOCAL 1-2 INCH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN A COUPLE/SEVERAL HOURS...WITH SOME ISOLATED 2-3 INCH
TOTALS LIKELY THIS ENTIRE PERIOD.

TERRY/HURLEY
$$