Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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000
FOUS30 KWBC 220043
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
843 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016

...VALID 01Z FRI JUL 22 2016 - 12Z FRI JUL 22 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



01Z/22 UPDATE...

...MIDWEST - NEAR SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL AND EXTREME EASTERN IA
AND SOUTHEAST MN...

WITH THE LONG TRACKING MCS FROM LATE LAST NIGHT AND TODAY FINALLY
FADING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THIS EVENING... TRAILING OUTFLOW FROM
THE MESO SYSTEM AND ARRIVAL OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM NRN MN/WI
IS BEGINNING TO DRIVE ANOTHER VERY HEALTHY LINE OF CONVECTIVE
HEAVY RAIN. THIS COULD BE THE START FOR ANOTHER NOCTURNAL HEAVY
RAIN EVENT... AS LARGE SCALE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IDEAL FOR
SUCH. WPC HAS ALREADY ACTED QUICKLY WITH ISSUING MPD #481 IN
ANTICIPATION OF LOCALIZED 2-3 INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS SRN WI ALONG
WITH SOME POTENTIAL BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING ON THE TAIL END OF
THE CONVECTIVE LINE. THE GUIDANCE HAS NOT OFFERED MUCH CONFIDENCE
ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND POTENTIAL HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE OTHER
THAN THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR-P... WHICH IS A BIT SLOW BUT
GRADUALLY SHOWS PROGRESSION OF THE ACTIVE LINE SEGMENT DUE SOUTH.
WITH AOA 2 INCH PWS POOLING OVER THE AREA AND 25KTS OF SWRLY 850MB
INFLOW FUELING THE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE RAINS... VIA 00Z RAOBS...
THESE CONVECTIVE RAINS COULD PERSIST ACROSS SRN WI BEFORE
PROPAGATING DOWNSTREAM. WAS NOT QUITE SURE ON THE EXACT WAY IN
HANDLING THE ERO WITH FAIR TO BELOW AVG MODEL GUIDANCE AND MODEST
1HR FFGS... THUS DESPITE THE IMPRESSIVE RADAR REPRESENTATION WPC
FELT A SEE TEXT IS APPROPRIATE FOR THE TIME BEING UNLESS
BACKBUILDING/TRAINING LINGERS LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.


MUSHER
$$





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