Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 311900
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...VALID 18Z SUN AUG 31 2014 - 00Z TUE SEP 02 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 NW CNK LNK 15 SE LRJ 10 NW MIC DLH 15 S BFW 40 E BFW
15 WSW IWD 10 NE RCX 30 NE ONA 25 NNW OLZ 15 SSW ALO PEA
25 WSW IRK 30 NNW COU 10 W JEF 10 NNE AIZ AIZ 40 WSW AIZ
40 N SGF 60 NNE JLN 45 ENE CNU 25 SE UKL 10 S EMP 35 WNW EMP
20 W SLN 20 E RSL 35 NNW RSL 35 NW CNK.


UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY

THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ON THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
OUTLOOK WAS EXPANDED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHEAST
KS/NORTHWEST MO AND SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST WI.
THIS WAS TO COVER THE RANGE OF HEAVY RAIN SOLUTIONS IN THE LATEST
SUITE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.  CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER 0000 UTC AS STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS PUSH EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL PLAINS.  STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN AN AXIS OF INCREASING
PW VALUES---REACHING 1.5 TO 2.0 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE
MEAN---ALONG THE ASSOCIATED SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SURFACE FRONT
WILL SUPPORT A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS
THESE AREAS TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THE QPF DETAILS OF THE HI RES ARW WERE FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY THIS
PERIOD-ESPECIALLY WITH THE PORTION OF THE CONVECTION THAT WILL BE
PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY
REGION WHERE THE HI RES ARW IS FASTER.  THE FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE
CONVECTION IN THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SHOULD BE BETTER IN
THIS CASE WHERE THERE MAY BE A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW.   WIDESPREAD
HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTAL POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS---WITH
ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE FROM SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION
TOTALS OF 1-1.5"+

COASTAL TX

THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS OVER THE MID TO UPPER TX COAST AS MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE.  AFTER
THIS---MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A LESSENING HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS THE
PERSISTENT MID TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATIONS THAT HAVE BEEN OFF THE
TX COAST MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN.  IN THE SHORT TERM---ISOLATED
1-2"+ PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE MID TO UPPER TX
COAST.


ORAVEC


$$





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