Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 250019
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
819 PM EDT SAT JUN 24 2017

...VALID 01Z SUN JUN 25 2017 - 12Z SUN JUN 25 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 W MMNL 20 SE DLF 10 SSW GRK 15 SSE SHV 40 N PIB 15 SW ANB
VPC 15 WNW 27A 20 ESE GSP 10 WNW HFF 20 SSE RZZ 25 NE FFA
65 ENE HSE 65 SSE HSE 70 SSE SUT 45 S CHS 15 NNW VDI 20 SSW ABY
ECP 35 SSE HSA 10 WNW 2GL 10 NW KCMB 15 SSW GLS 35 NW KBBF
30 WNW KOPM 10 SW EBG 55 NE MMMY 30 W MMNL.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NNW BGD 35 SW CDS 35 NW SNK 55 SSE CVN 20 SW TCC 40 W CAO
25 NE CAO 20 NNW BGD.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
115 SW MMCS 55 WSW DMN 35 NW SVC 65 NNW TCS 70 NE TCS 30 NW 4CR
10 E 4CR 30 SE SRR 25 ENE ELP 60 SSE MMCS.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 S LBT OCW 15 SW MQI 30 NE HSE 35 SSE HSE 50 S MRH 45 SE MYR
45 WSW MYR 15 S LBT.


0000 UTC UPDATE...

PARED A BIT OF THE MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK AREAS BASED ON THE
LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND OBSERVATIONAL/CONVECTIVE TRENDS. OUTSIDE
OF THE MORE ORGANIZED...WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONVECTION IN EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA (AIDED BY THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND
ATTENDANT RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET FORCING)...ALL OTHER
THREAT AREAS WERE NOTED AS MARGINAL GIVEN THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE
FORCING AS WELL AS THE INSTABILITY (MUCAPE) AND LOW-LEVEL INFLOW
TRENDS/FORECASTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

HURLEY


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...


15 UTC UPDATE...


...SERN US/CENTRAL GULF COAST TO TX/NM...

THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAIN REMAINS POSSIBLE TODAY/TONIGHT FROM
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND
ACROSS TX INTO NM. A FRONTAL ZONE AND LEAD MESO-BOUNDARIES FROM
LINGERING ONGOING CONVECTION ARE SAGGING SOUTHWARD WELL IN THE
WAKE OF CINDY AND WILL INTERACT WITH POOLED MOISTURE CONTENT TO
FOCUS WIDESPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WITH SOME ORGANIZATION.
WPC HAS AN ELONGATED SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS
THIS REGION THAT INCLUDES AREAS PARTICULARLY HIT HARD BY HEAVY
RAINS FROM CINDY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO WITH LIGHT STEERING
FLOW FLOODING CONCERNS PERSIST FOR SRN PARTS OF AL/MS/LA AND THE
WRN FL PANHANDLE. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME 1-3 INCH AMOUNTS WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES FROM ERN NC/PARTS OF SC INTO SRN AL/MS AND
ACROSS TX INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES AS AIDED THERE BY
UPSLOPE FETCH UNDERNEATH SEWD DIGGING IMPULSES AND FAVORABLE UPPER
DIFFLUENCE. SRN/SERN TX ACTIVITY FOCUS TODAY WILL BE DRIVEN
PRIMARILY FROM MESO-BOUNDARIES SET DOWN BY CURRENT CONVECTION AND
HAVE INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL. HAVE SHIFTED THE EARLIER
ISSUED AREA SOUTHWARD AS PER LATEST CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND THIS
REMAINING AREA OFFERS SIGNIFICANT SHORT TERM LOCAL POTENTIAL AS
CELL MERGERS AND OUTFLOW INTERSECTIONS ARE CURRENTLY PRODUCING
SOME HEAVY LOCAL AMOUNTS.

...MEANWHILE HAVE DISCONTINUED EARLIER ISSUED MARGINAL THREAT
AREAS FOR NEW ENGLAND AND CENTRAL FL WHERE THE THREAT IS
REDUCED...

SCHICHTEL

$$





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