Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 111845
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
245 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

...VALID 18Z FRI JUL 11 2014 - 00Z SUN JUL 13 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 SW CUT 30 WNW VTN 30 E MHE 20 ENE FKA 20 SW RYV 15 E IKK MTO
FFL TQE 10 NNW LBF 25 NE AKO 35 SSW LIC 35 WSW AFF 40 SW PUM
25 S DRC 35 SW CUT.



...SERN WY/NERN CO THROUGH NRN NE TO IA AND NRN IL/SRN WI...

A NARROW AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT FRI
THROUGH SAT FROM NERN CO/SERN WY TO PARTS OF THE MID/UPPER MS
VALLEY. A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH... VIA WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY... WILL EJECT OUT OF NRN CO/SERN WY AND TRACK QUICKLY
DOWNSTREAM THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY. THIS WILL
BE AHEAD OF A VERY STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT DIGGING SOUTH AND
EAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF A
BUILDING MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN THE DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND DRY AIR

UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE WILL SETUP A VERY NARROW ZONE OF INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE POOLING. THE GUIDANCE... ESPECIALLY THE GFS AND
ECMWF... CAPTURE THIS SCENARIO AND DEPICT THE DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE
TRANSITIONING VERY FAST DOWNSTREAM. THE ACTION BEGINS TO DEVELOP
LATE AFTN/EVENING ACROSS SERN WY/NERN CO AS DEVELOPING CONVECTION
POSSIBLY MERGES INTO A CLUSTER AND ADVANCE DOWNSTREAM. THE COMPLEX
WILL THEN PROGRESS ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL NE AND SRN SD WITH SOME
MOISTURE BACKING NWWRD TO THE SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER NWRN SD/SWRN
ND. MEANWHILE... JUST AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX OVERNIGHT... ENOUGH OF
A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL SWRLY JET COULD YIELD SOME STORM
ACTIVITY/HEAVY RAIN ACROSS IA INTO NORTH CENTRAL IL. BY
MORNING/MIDDAY SAT INTO THE AFTN HRS... THE SMALL SCALE SYSTEM
WILL MERGE WITH THE WESTERLIES AND FRONT FOR POSSIBLY MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE RAINFALL ACROSS IA/WI/MI INTO NRN/CENTRAL
IL/IN... THOUGH THIS LATTER PERIOD HAS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY. THE
SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING BACK SOUTH AND WEST FROM THE COMPLEX COULD
ALSO SPIKE AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS ERN CO... ESPECIALLY IN NERN CO. THE 3HR FFG AVGS FROM 2 TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE EXTENDED REGION... WHICH IS NOT PARTICULARLY
LOW. HOWEVER WITH SUCH A DISTINGUISHABLE FEATURE ON WATER VAPOR...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON THE LIKELY TRACK/PROGRESSION OF THE SMALL
SCALE VORT... DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND POSSIBLE 1 TO 3 INCH
AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED... WPC FELT KEEPING CONSISTENCY WITH A SLIGHT
THREAT AND COMBINED THE TWO AREAS INTO ONE.

MUSHER
$$





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