Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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919
FOUS30 KWBC 230829
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
428 AM EDT FRI JUN 23 2017

...VALID 12Z FRI JUN 23 2017 - 12Z SAT JUN 24 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 WSW CMBR 15 NE CWST CYSL 10 ENE HUL 30 SSE GNR 25 ESE SLK
ALB 30 NNE MSV 10 NW NXX MTN 15 N SHD 20 SSW LWB 25 WNW TRI
15 NNW AHN ALX 50 NNE MOB 20 E NBG 30 NNE KSPR 20 SSW KVNP CWF
25 WSW JAS 30 WSW TYR 15 E ACT 25 W 05F 20 ESE JCT 30 W SJT
20 SSE INK 40 E HOB 45 WNW SNK 15 SSW SWW 20 N DYS 20 NNE CDS
30 W CHK 20 SW RVS 10 WNW FSM 10 NNW HOT 10 ESE LRF 10 SSE BVX
30 NW POF 10 WNW MVN 15 WNW PRG GUS 10 ENE CWAJ 20 ENE ELZ
20 WNW RME 10 WSW CMBR.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 E CWF 15 N AEX 50 ENE OCH SLR 10 SSE 1F9 45 S F05 10 WSW FDR
20 ESE DUC 20 N AQR 10 SW DEQ 15 NW PBF 25 ESE M19 25 SE FAM
20 NNE BMG 10 N MIE 20 W MNN 15 ESE CXPT 15 SE BFD 30 NNE MUI
20 ESE LNS 10 S FDK 10 ESE W99 20 WNW LWB 30 NNE LNP 20 NE CSV
25 SSW CSV 10 S TYS 15 SW 1A5 10 NE MGE 15 ESE EET 35 E HBG 7R3
30 E CWF.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 WNW CGI 10 ESE AJG 25 NW HAO LHQ 15 NE IDI 10 W AOO 10 E 2G4
20 SSW EKN 30 SE HTS 20 SE BWG 45 SW CKV 25 SSW TUP 40 NE JAN
10 SE TVR 40 E BAD 35 SSW TXK 15 NE TXK 15 SW PBF 20 NNW AWM
20 WNW CGI.




...SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY AND SOUTH INTO TN/OH VALLEYS
AND NORTHERN MID-ATL/NORTHEAST...

THE COMBINATION OF DECAYING CINDY LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OR UP THE
OH RIVER TOWARD THE NRN MID-ATL STATES AND MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES ALONG THE ACTIVE UPPER WESTERLIES WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON FRIDAY. CINDY IS
EXPECTED TO ADVANCE FROM EAST CENTRAL AR TO NORTHERN KY TO
MD/NORTHERN VA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS, WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN
AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING PART OF THE PROGRESSIVE JET. MEANWHILE, AN
ACTIVE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A SECONDARY FRONTAL ZONE WILL
SWEEP FROM THE GREAT LAKES/WESTERN OH VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST,
WHILE THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT SETTLES INTO THE SOUTH/LOWER MS
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. GFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES SUGGEST
INVOF CINDY AND OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PWS 2.5 TO 3 TIMES
ABOVE AVG, WHILE REACHING THE 95TH-99TH PERCENTILE. THIS ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE CONTENT INTERACTING WITH EACH SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE
SHOULD RESULT IN EXTENSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL. WPC KEPT CONTINUITY AND
CONTINUED EXTENDED SLIGHT AND MODERATE THREATS OF EXCESSIVE RAIN.
BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS AND HI-RES SUITE OF NAM
CONEST/ARW/NMMB, A MODERATE THREAT WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN
AR/NORTHERN LA INTO NWRN MS/WRN TN AND UP THE OH RIVER FROM
SOUTHERN IL AND IN, A LARGE PART OF KY AND SOUTHERN OH/NORTHERN WV
AND SWRN PA. A SLIGHT WILL SURROUND THE MODERATE AND STRETCH FROM
THE NORTHERN TX/SOUTHERN OK BORDER TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES OF LA/MS AND NORTHERN AL AND UP INTO TN/NORTHERN GA, ALMOST
ALL THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-ATL REGION. WITHIN THE TWO
AREAS, WPC WENT WITH 1-4 INCH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER NUMBERS OF AS MUCH AS 5-8 INCHES PER LATEST HI-RES
GUIDANCE. SOME OF THESE SPOTS ARE ALREADY SATURATED FROM THE
TROPICAL RAINS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AND FFG NUMBERS ARE
EXTREMELY LOW. A HIGH THREAT WAS CONTEMPLATED BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE AT THE MOMENT, THOUGH PARTS OF SERN/EASTERN AR AND
NORTHERN LA/NWRN MS AT THE MOMENT ARE A CONCERN ALONG WITH
SOUTHERN IL/IN AND A LARGE PART OF KY LATER.

FOR MORE ON CINDY...PLEASE REFER TO ADVISORIES FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER.


MUSHER

$$





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